Working from well researched principles of human decision making behavior, a Harvard Business School professor explains that whether or not a high-tech product succeeds can be explained by the “9x Effect”. In a very small nutshell, the 9x effect says that a potential user of a new product will underweight by a factor of three the benefits of a new product, and overweight by the same factor the costs of giving up their current solution. Human beings evaluate new things relative to the status quo, and we are risk averse (we exaggerate the cost of a loss in our minds). So if a new product is to succeed, it better be nine times better than the current solution.
This got me to thinking about my preaching here on this blog. How do I evaluate products? Am I pushing sub-9x solutions in my preaching here?
With a few exceptions I don’t think I am.