A report released by Complete College America today revealed that U.S. college graduation rates have remained stagnant even as enrollment climbs -- a situation that suggests a growing skills gap for employees entering the job market.
Looking at my own home state of Indiana, the numbers do not suggest good things. For every 100 Indiana students who enter a public college or university, 52 will enter a four-year public college as a full-time student. 43 of them will return for their sophomore year, and only 14 will graduate on time in four years. Sixteen will graduate in six years, and two will graduate in eight years, bringing the total up to 32 full-time students eventually getting a bachelor's degree inside of eight years.
To say this is alarming is a bit of an understatement. And it's not just here in Indiana; in California the percentage of full-time four-year students who graduated from college on time was also 14 percent. Over time, California students did fare better at ultimately getting their degrees: 57 percent of full-time students received their bachelor's degrees in eight years or less.
The typical credentials required to land a job in today's job market illustrates why this is a problem. In Indiana, 58 percent of jobs will require a career certificate or college degree by the year 2020. With 36 percent of Indiana adults holding an associate's degree or higher, this represents a 22 percent skills gap, according to the non-profit organization's report.
And even though California has a better graduation rate, they're actually in worse shape; 67 percent of the jobs available there require some form of higher education. With only 36 percent of the Golden State's adult population holding a degree, this represents a 31 percent skill gap by the year 2020.
The report points out a few of the problems that impact college gradutaion rates. More students, for example, have to take remedial classes in college just to prepare them for college-level course work. In fact, 20 percent of all students seeking a bachelor's degree have had to take remedial classes -- a group the report euphemistically refers to as the "Bermuda Triangle" of college students. Once students add the time for remedial work to their "normal" two- or four-year course path, they are increasingly at risk of never making it to commencement.
It's a problem with a very real economic impact. Complete College America cited a Bureau of Labor Statistics report indicating that "unemployment rates are twice as high for those with just a high school diploma (10.8%) compared to those with a bachelor's degree or higher (4.9%)."
This skills gap will be especially problematic for small businesses that need educated workers to fill job slots. With fewer available degreed job applicants, the pickings will be slim. And despite Tom Stanley's assertions in The Millionaire Next Door that most of the nation's millionaires are non-degreed small business owners, one wonders how a dearth of college graduates will affect the small business community's ability to grow and to innovate.
The report challenges colleges to focus on graduation rates, rather than enrollment counts, as a solution. Because without quality in education, the quantity of educated works is destined to keep dropping.
Brian Proffitt is a veteran technology journalist, analyst, and author with experience in a variety of technologies, including cloud, virtualization, and consumer devices. A part-time adjunct instructor at the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame, he can be followed on Twitter @TheTechScribe and Google+ at +Brian Proffitt.
