Economic Prediction from Horse's Mouth

Here, from the organization that predicted the current financial mess in this country, another prediction: A modest recovery will start in 2010/2011.

World Finance Magazine has recognized Med Yones, president of the International Institute of Management (IIM), as "one of the few who predicted the current U.S. economic crisis before it happened. IIM challenged the U.S. president's State of the Union address in January 2007, the Federal Reserve chairman and the popular opinion of U.S. economists and media analysts at the time. IIM published a policy white paper outlining U.S. economic risks and strategies for the next decade."

"We warned them about two years ago," Yones said, "yet no one was willing to listen until the markets took their first big hit in early 2007. Since that time, the policy paper was viewed more than 250,000 times by researchers, media analysts and investors. The three most common questions are: How did we get here? Why did our top experts miss it? When do you think the economy will recover:

"The short answers are that spending on credit without enough productions to pay it back (is how we got here). Groupthink mind-set (is why top experts missed it). We'll experience more volatility in 2009 on the way to the bottom of the correction cycle. A modest recovery will start in 2010/2011 (is the answer to when the economy will recover.)

There are more detailed answers here.

IIM is a management best practices research and education institute.