CES 2012 Preview

Tis the week before CES and all around the Web…

…everyone is trying to predict what the big five or big six or big 12 trends of next week’s big show will be. , as Microsoft announced this year is it for them and the keynote.

As a reporter’s sidenote – it has been years since I made it to the Microsoft keynote anyway at the Consumer Electronics Show. It has become much akin to Sony’s end of the press day press conference; to quote the Bard, “much ado about nothing.”

Actually in many ways the show is becoming more and more “much ado about nothing,” simply because the innovation awards were announced before most of us finished - or was that started - our holiday shopping back in November. I’ve personally seen (and dare I admit even written) a few blog posts about product announcements that will be “unveiled” next week. How can something be unveiled next week if I’ve already posted about it?

The Consumer Electronics Show used to be like the Oscars, we’d sort of know what to expect but there’d be surprises along the way. Actually CES is like the Oscars now but in other ways – long, somewhat boring and all too predictable.

Other than prices, many categories won’t have much in the way of surprises.

For one, don’t get me started on the TV trends. Yes, plural. First there are the 3D sets that won’t require glasses. Personally I don’t think much can save 3D, because it was a fad in the 1950s and it remains a fad 60 years later. It was all the rage, like 3D movies a couple of years ago, but we’re seeing that it doesn’t really add much, at least not as much as was promised.

Then there is OLED, which is growing in size yet shrinking. The organic light-emitting diode builds on existing LED technology, and no doubt it is the future. Yes, the sets do promise to look simply fantastic, and they are especially thin and very light. The 55-inch TV from LG that will shown next week will be just 0.16-inches thick and will weigh in at just 16.5 pounds. That is a game changer, but the price will probably be outrageous, as it often is with new technology.

Were that the news it would be big. But then there is the 4K TV, also from LG (talk about hedging one’s bets), a TV that has four times the pixel density of 1080s HDTVs. The question is do we need either, and I ask this as a true early adopter of HDTVs. The answer is that LG probably needs these more than most consumers. Both are about tomorrow but these are going in different directions. OLED will transform from novelty to practical in the next decade, just in time for 4K to make consumers replace their existing HDTVs – or so LG hopes.

OK, now none of this really matters to small businesses, but it serves as a primer to the advances in technology. OLED will likely mean thinner tablets, thinner monitors and this will make its way from the living room to the office.

And then there are a couple of technologies that we’ll want to watch this year that will have a more direct impact on business, especially those of us who fall into the “road warrior” ilk. The first is Ultrabooks, which are not to be confused with the Japanese superhero Ultraman, although he’d probably use one of these.

These laptops offer slim designs, solid state drives and much longer battery life than traditional laptops. These have been gaining ground since last May and this year several companies are looking to get on board. If there is one laptop category that can make would-be tablet buyers think twice it will be the Ultrabooks, especially as these are much more designed with the content creation side of things in mind. The twist will be the Ice Cream Sandwich tablets, which rumors suggest will also be shown at CES. The Android 4.0 tablets promise to offer more challenge to the iPad, but whether these will catch on business devices has yet to be seen.

As with the TVs it shows that technology is at several crossroads and consumers, as well as business users, can easily get lost at times like this.

Then there are those Quad-Core phones, which will be taking advantage of Qualcomm’s Snapdragon processor. I’ve been following the development of these phones throughout the year, but a lot of questions remain include whether the networks are in place to support the functionality. According to some these could make smartphones true geniuses or not. As with the other devices we’ll find out in just a few days.