2012: The Year Ahead for Small Business Tech
There are many reasons why I do my best to avoid making technology predictions. Here's one: So much of what's interesting about this industry is so very unpredictable.
For instance, if you'd told me at the start of 2011 that HP would release an ambitious tablet and then kill it six weeks later -- and would also fire its CEO after eleven months and flirt with exiting the PC business -- I'd never have believed you. But it did.
That's not to say that it's impossible to prep yourself for the year to come. In fact, we already know about quite a few products, technologies, and trends that will impact how small businesses use tech in 2012. Herewith, some thoughts about half-a-dozen of them.
Windows 8: The Early Days
No mincing of words necessary: Microsoft's Windows 8, which should show up in mid-to-late 2012, is the most radical rethinking of Windows since version 1.0 debuted in 1985. Existing Windows programs will still run. But Microsoft will aim to wean users off of traditional apps and onto software that uses the new Metro user interface, a touch-centric, tablet-friendly approach to productivity that has little in common with Windows as we've known it. (It doesn't even have windows.)
There's no scenario in which Windows 8 becomes a de facto small-business standard during 2012. It's just too dramatic a departure from previous versions. But even if you tend to upgrade operating systems on your own leisurely schedule, as most companies do, it'll be smart to monitor the reactions of the early adopters who get Windows 8 right away.
Windows XP: The (Possibly) Final Days
Windows 8 is shockingly new; Windows XP is shockingly old. Much to Microsoft's chagrin, the decade-old software refuses to die, especially in the corporate world.
Lots of companies that (wisely) avoided Windows Vista have either migrated to the generally pleasing Windows 7 or plan to do so in 2012. I think that's an excellent idea, if for no other reason than because Windows 7 is far safer than XP. But with Windows 8's release within sight, those who choose to hold onto XP just a little bit longer could end up kicking the upgrade can into 2013. (Microsoft says it's absolutely, positively ending support for Windows XP on August 4th, 2014.)
Ultrabooks: The Thin Crowd
In the era of smartphones and tablets, there's no longer anything inherently sexy about PCs. Chip behemoth Intel is working hard to amp up the excitement level with a concept it calls the Ultrabook. Roughly inspired by Apple's MacBook Air, are Windows laptops that emphasize sleekness and long battery life over raw computing power. They typically weigh around 3 pounds, sport 13" displays, and skip the optical drive. Often, they use solid-state storage instead of a hard disk.
Ultrabooks are already available from companies such as Acer, Asus, and Toshiba, starting at around $900; look for lots more of them, from all major manufacturers, in 2012. Intel's so excited about the idea that it's investing hundreds of millions of dollars in it. I like it myself. Historically, though, PC buyers have tended to favor bigger screens and more features over pure portability, so I'm not assuming that Ultrabooks will be a smash hit.
Tablets: Beyond the iPad?
For all the talk of a "tablet market," the category has consisted so far of one blockbuster -- Apple's iPad -- and a profusion of mostly lackluster also-rans.
Many small companies have already , for applications ranging from the mundane to the ingenious; mine has become my most-used piece of business equipment. Still, as a lover of competition, I'm rooting for other hardware makers to come up with plausible iPad alternatives. In 2012, we'll see the first models that run Google's ambitious Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich, as well as ones that use Windows 8. None of the new arrivals are going to knock the iPad out of its dominant spot, but I hope they're good enough to merit your consideration.
Cloud Computing: The Next Generation
The best and worst thing about cloud computing is that it's an endlessly flexible concept rather than anything specific. What it is, really, is anything that relates to storing applications and/or data on the Internet, a phenomenon that will continue to evolve in 2012.
I'm particularly interested in the between Microsoft Office and Google Apps. There will be a new version of Office in 2012, and with it a new version of the software-and-cloud hybrid known as . Google will presumably keep on claiming that scads of major organizations are dumping Office for its Google Apps Web-based suite; Microsoft will probably maintain that hardly anybody is doing that.
Another Google-related cloud story for 2012 is the fate of Chromebooks, the Web-only laptops that run Google's Chrome OS software. Like , I'm skeptical about the concept -- but will cheerfully admit I'm wrong if there's evidence they're catching on.
I'm also curious whether popular, consumer-centric cloud file-management services such as Dropbox and Apple's iCloud will cater aggressively to small-business customers as well. (Dropbox recently added a business edition; it's really basic, but it's a start.)
Mobile Payments: Dawn of the Digital Wallet
As 2011 began, I thought it might be the year of the digital wallet. Nope. True, a bunch of big companies are working hard on services that let people make payments in retail and stores with a wave of their cell phones, including American Express, Google, Mastercard, PayPal, and Visa. But my phone can't do this yet. Neither can yours, I'll bet. And not all the recent news is good: Verizon Wireless, for instance, isn't supporting Google Wallet in its version of the new Galaxy Nexus phone.
Still, digital wallets have the potential to make it a whole lot easier for small businesses to both pay for stuff and get paid. So I'm officially hoping that 2012 turns out to be the year of the digital wallet -- or at least the year that it becomes obvious that the revolution is going to happen in the not-too-distant future.
Those are some of the topics I expect to be writing about over the next twelve months. Here's the fun part: I have very little idea what I'm going to say about them. We know, for example, that Ultrabooks will flood the market in 2012. But it's the folks who buy computers, not Intel and its partners, who get to decide whether Ultrabooks will be successful or not.
Small businesses, in other words, will play a great big role in determining the year's hits and misses. I find that fact exhilarating -- and I'm looking forward to being surprised, repeatedly, as it all plays out.
