People who know the least rate themselves most knowledgeable. This is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Its part of the reason for so many bad advertisements.
For hundreds of years people believed that the cure for nearly every physical ailment was bloodletting. (That belief was so pervasive that people didn't feel the necessity of finding a surgeon* to perform the procedure. Anyone with a sharp instrument could open a vein). In the majority of cases**, bloodletting did no good, and likely harmed the patient.
In much the same way, convention wisdom calls for additional traffic to solve marketing problems. Sometimes business people get lucky. Most of the time they spend the money and have nothing to show for it.
Salespeople have names for early-stage shoppers: "lookie loos," "tire kickers," "time wasters." Early-stage shoppers, very aware of their own ignorance, would feel much more comfortable at this point if salespeople were removed from their buying process. Early-stage shoppers say things like, "I'm just looking."
We'll get more accurate data if we remove data from all customers who have not finished their relationship with you. But that means you must already have a good estimate for the length of time a customer is likely to continue to purchase from you. And if we knew that, we wouldn't have to estimate. (Author makes "I'm going crazy" sound of index finger thrumming on lips).
If a business is willing to invest money in advertising to gain new customers, why not invest in the customer himself? When we consider the probability of all those additional purchases, and all of the profit derived from them, would you be willing to lose a few bucks on the "front end" of this relationship to "buy" the customer, and gain a profitable "back end?"
See the problem? One-step ads work best when the offer is simple, and inexpensive. They work when the prospect is a late stage shopper, and is very close to making a purchase. But when Miss Prospect is an entry stage shopper, is bewildered by the sheer number of choices, and feels overwhelmed by risk, they tend not to work at all. Mr. Advertiser schedules his single-step offer to run in the noon newscast, and at 12:15 is standing at the door wondering where all of the buyers are.
What's the one clear and overriding reason that will get your business noticed, provide new information, and persuade some other company's formerly satisfied customers to try your brand?
Here's a hint: most opportunities will not be the direct opposite of the market leader's strategy, but rather in exploiting an opportunity that is either too small or too far removed from the market leader's primary focus.
Convincing people who don't already feel the need is hugely expensive. More expensive than most small companies can afford. Educating customers is not a cost effective advertising strategy for most small business.
