In my 25 years in the business world I have seen a number of economic downturns, some worse than others. The current crisis is nothing like any of the other ones. This one is different in a number of important respects. This downturn cycle is very strong and hit our economy after the longest growth period in the history of the
This cycle is different because it has far reaching global implications. I am not sure I can point to one area of the globe that is thriving economically right now.
Very few industry sectors are not being affected.
Very few geographic areas of the country are not being affected. Only three states have a biannual budget surplus, which is shrinking on nearly a daily basis. Some states like
Although we have seen
This recession has been different in the speed and intensity of how hard it has hit both the
In prior economic downturns, it has been hard to pinpoint the bottom, thus signaling improving conditions. Once businesses sense we are at the bottom of the cycle, they are more inclined to think about expansion. Banks change their lending personalities and start making loans.
With this recession, I believe there will be a clearly definable bottom. Once we hit it, nearly everyone will recognize that it is the bottom and the worst of the bad news is over. A clear signal of the bottom will allow a quicker and more robust recovery. I wouldn’t be surprised if good economic news comes back with the same strength that the bad economic news hit the world.
Many bright economists are predicting that we will see the bottom in the
Sam Thacker is a partner in Austin Texas based Business Finance Solutions.
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