And now for some positive news. A new survey of leading economists predicted that the economy will rebound in the third quarter according to the National Association for Business Economics Outlook in a report released Wednesday.
“The good news is that the NABE panel expects economic growth to turn positive in the second half of this year, with the pace of job losses narrowing sharply over the remainder of this year and employment turning up in early 2010,” said NABE president Chris Varvares in a written statement.
Almost three out of four survey respondents expect the recession will end by the third quarter of 2009, the report said. Nearly 1 in 5, or 19 percent predicted that a turnaround won’t come until the fourth quarter.
“Growth in 2010 is slated for a return to near its historical trend,” the report said, predicting a 2.7 percent year-over-year increase. The NABE’s February outlook had predicted a 3.1 percent uptick.
Take a read as the report offers up data and predictions for a number of economic indicators including GDP, jobs, housing starts and sales, the deficit, and spending.
Of biggest concern to retailers, and small business in general, is that consumer spending is down and the personal savings rate is up, with two consecutive quarters of sharp increases. More than 70 percent of the panelists expect “more thrifty behavior is here to stay, at least for the next five years,” the report said.
The world has changed, and according to the predictions, that changed world is here to stay. Less credit, and credit card debt, coupled with increased savings, means less disposable income. How are you going to create a shift in your strategy to survive in this new economy?