‘Tis the season for annual economic forecasts. With all the gloom about the economy, you’d think the economists who speak at these meetings would have nothing but bad news. And yet, that’s not what I’m hearing. While driving to one such meeting yesterday, I caught a blurb on NPR (and apologies, but I can’t cite the speaker or source) to the effect that small businesses will fare better than larger ones this coming year because they are willing to accept lower profitability as long as they can keep on going. Well, certainly, privately held companies are not under the same pressure to deliver shareholder returns as publicly held ones, so perhaps this is true.
At the Economic Forecast I attended, Tom Powtiosky, Oregon’s State Economist, told the City Club of Portland that although recovery will be slow, for a variety of reasons Oregon is in a better position to weather this recession than many other states. He believes that the state, which has usually been first in adopting green practices and growing green businesses, only needs to step up and be a national leader in these areas. There are new jobs waiting to be created in clean technology
And a new survey by the Entrepreneurs’ Organization shows that despite concerns about financing, healthcare costs and the impact of a new administration, “…entrepreneurs are confident in their
ability to survive the economic downturn and their contribution to
economic recovery.” If you look at the details in the release you will further find that “Almost half of respondents anticipate an increase in revenues in 2009,
and a quarter expect revenue levels to remain the same as 2008.”
It seems to me that the general mood is not as gloomy now as it was in October. What are you hearing in your circles?