French fry consumption in USA on the decline for first time. (Potato Trends Watch).

After decades of almost uninterrupted growth in consumption

Overall consumption of potato products this year is expected to decline two percent, from 61.2 pounds per capita to 59.9, according to Charles Plummer, an economist with the USDA's Economic Research Service. Plummer blamed a combination of reduced potato production, higher prices and health concerns.

The decline ended a long-running trend and left manufacturers facing a glut. All through the 1990s, the sky seemed to be the limit--processors could barely keep up with demand, and were putting up new plants almost every year. But a shift in public taste from fast food outlets to sandwich shops may signal trouble.

Annual consumption of fries is still around 28 pounds per capita, the USDA said, but fast food restaurants account for 90% of that. As McDonald's goes, so goes the nation, and recent news that Subway sandwich shops have overtaken the fast food giant in store count--albeit not yet in dollar volume--could indicate a sea change in consumption patterns.

Retail sales of fries also seem to be flagging. Unit volume of plain potatoes, fries and hash browns at US supermarkets fell 1.8% last year to 402.9 million pounds, according to Information Resources, Inc., Chicago, Illinois.

Perhaps fries were reaching the limits of growth in any case, Plummer told The Wall Street Journal. "[Consumption's] grown so much for so long it's getting to the point where [one has to ask] how much more can each person eat?" Processors are fighting back, just the same. McCain is selling XTreme flavored fries and HJ Heinz unit Ore-Ida has come out with a Funky range that includes blue and chocolate fries (see page 91).

Colored fries, however, may not address another basic issue, at least for health-conscious Americans fearful of fat. "I don't even eat at McDonald's anymore. I'm trying to get away from fatty food," said Chandra Brooks, a Washington, D.C., office worker interviewed while dining on a Subway sandwich in a downtown food court.