ATA Study Says Trucking Industry Has Current Shortage of 20,000 Drivers May Jump to 111,000 by 2014.

ALEXANDRIA, Va. -- The long-haul, heavy-duty truck transportation industry in the United States is experiencing a national shortage of 20,000 truck drivers, the American Trucking Associations reported today in its newly released U.S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Forecasts.

The Forecast, a report on the present and future of the long-haul truck driver pool, predicts the shortage of long-haul truck drivers will increase to 111,000 by 2014 if current demographic trends stay their course and if the overall labor force continues to grow at a slower pace.

"The driver market is the tightest it has been in 20 years," ATA President and CEO Bill Graves said. "It's a major limitation to the amount of freight that motor carriers can haul. It's critical that we find ways to tap a new labor pool, increase wages and recruit new people into the industry that keeps our national economy moving."

Of the 3.4 million truck drivers on the road, 1.3 million are long-haul truckers, the driver segment most severely impacted by the shortage. Although the current driver shortage is set at 20,000 drivers, it seems larger to the industry because of a high degree of driver "churning," or moving from carrier to carrier. Large truckload carriers reported an average annual turnover of 121% last year.

If current demographic trends continue, the supply of new long-haul heavy truck drivers will grow at an annual rate of just 1.6% in the next decade. But Global Insight, the economic consulting firm conducting the study for ATA, predicts over the next 10 years, economic growth will generate a need for a 2.2% average annual increase in long-haul heavy truck drivers, or 320,000 jobs overall.

Another 219,000 must be found to replace drivers 55 and older who will retire in the next decade, putting total expansion and replacement hiring needs at 539,000 or an average of 54,000 new drivers per year for the next decade.

Scores of drivers exited the long-haul trucking industry after average weekly earnings fell 9% below average construction earnings in the 2000 recession. Driver wages have since failed to regain pre-2000 levels when they averaged 6% to 7% higher than construction wages. Long-haul drivers also cited extended periods away from home and unpredictable schedules as reasons for transitioning to other occupations.