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Recovery will inch along

By Evans, Michael K
Publication: Industry Week
Date: Friday, February 1 2002
HEADNOTE

EVANS ON THE ECONOMY

HEADNOTE

THIS YEAR WILL BE BETTER THAN LAST, BUT NOT MUCH BETTER.

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Those who put their faith in the index of leading indicators believe that the recession is just about over, and the recovery could start any time. While the leading indicators have never missed a turning point, they have given several false signals.

The problem this time is that many key economic indicators fell so rapidly after Sept. 11 that a modest rebound was virtually certain, yet they still remain below their August levels. As a result, I am somewhat skeptical that the recovery is just about under way.

However, even if real GDP were to inch forward this quarter-and, in my opinion, that will not happen until next quarter-the recovery this year will be more sluggish than usual for several reasons that have little or nothing to do with consumer confidence.

In addition, make sure to read these articles:

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