Events pressure oil pipeline.

Crude oil, contrary to recent custom, has developed a little carry

"Seasonally speaking," says Nauman Barakat, first vice president of international energy at Shearson Lehman Hutton Inc., " there should not be price pressure, but demand was stronger than the industry expected and kept

Recent Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behavior, a "Japanese buying frenzy" and excessive proneness to accidents have supported prices as well.

Always excepting Kuwait, Barakat says, the OPEC nations have been sticking to their quotas or at least showing restraint. For example, the United Arab Emirates, often an outcast on quota issues, has been producing 2 million barrels a day, more than its quota but less than its 2.3 million production capacity.

Because of strong demand in many parts of the world, shippers and refiners have been operating at a very high percentage of capacity. When refiners try to run too hard, Barakat points out, they will have accidents.

While recent accidents have received less publicity than the Exxon Valdez incident, news of new ones surfaces almost every week - broken loading arms at a North Sea facility, an explosion and spill at a New Jersey terminal (the fourth accident this year in that area), the list goes on.

Ultimately, says Peter Beutel of Elders Futures Inc., the cost of those problems will figure in higher prices for consumers.

The most interesting potential for new price developments still comes from OPEC, Barakat says. The Saudi Arabians and the Kuwaitis have opposing interests. The Saudis and the Iraqis would like to see the reference price raised $2, from $18 to $20 a barrel. The Libyans want a $4 hike. But the Kuwaitis like it where it is.

Barakat expects the March meeting of the OPEC monitoring committee to create more heat than light" as members anticipate the May meeting. Then, he predicts, they are likely to change the reference price by perhaps a dollar a barrel.

So, with gasoline demand not yet strong during April, Barakat expects a slight dip in the market.