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Citing data showing that over 20- or 30year holding periods stocks are no more risky than bonds, Kevin Hassett and James Glassman attack the equity premium puzzle: Why should stocks produce returns that are so much higher if they are no more risky than bonds? (TWO VIEWS, November/December)

>The best explanation is that people are irrationally fearful of stocks. If this fear is overcome-as Glassman and Hassett believe it soon will be-voila! Dow 36,000.

But here's another explanation: Stocks are indeed less risky than bonds over the long run, but most people are not longrun stock investors. The turnover for the New York Stock Exchange for the 12month period ending in September 1999 was 76 percent, which means the average stock is held for a little over a year, not the 20- to 30-year periods Glassman and Hassett cite. Over such short holding periods, the standard deviation of stock returns (their risk) is two to three times higher than those for bonds. In other words, for the periods in which people actually hold stocks, they are indeed a riskier investment than corporate or government bonds.

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