Rock solid

WITH THE DISPUTE OVER THE FUTURE OF Gibraltar seen by both Britain and Spain as standing in the way of smooth bilateral relations and the implementation of important European Union (EU) agreements, the British government decided in July last year to propose discussions that would lead to agreement on joint British and Spanish sovereignty of Gibraltar. Such an agreement would be subject to a referendum by the people of 'the Rock', as guaranteed in the preamble to their 1969 constitution.

If Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, thought that this would be relatively straightforward, then they clearly made some major miscalculations.

The first of these concerns Spain's understanding of the proposal. Whereas the British - rightly or wrongly - see joint sovereignty as an achievable and durable solution from which all three parties - Britain, Spain and Gibraltar - will benefit, Spain has made it clear that it regards joint sovereignty as merely a stepping stone towards its recovery of full sovereignty over the Rock. Although the territory of Gibraltar, excluding the isthmus, was ceded to Britain `in perpetuity' by the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, Spain has never renounced its claim to sovereignty and to what it sees as the restoration of its territorial integrity.

Spain's Prime Minister, Jose Maria Aznar, would doubtless welcome the idea of going down in history as the man who reached agreement with Britain over Gibraltar's sovereignty after nearly three centuries of colonial rule, but he would rather not be remembered as the Prime Minister who accepted it would never fully return to Spain. An agreement on joint sovereignty would not, therefore, be the end of the matter.

VITAL BASE

A second aspect of Spain's viewpoint that is not shared by Britain concerns military facilities on the Rock. Spain assumed that joint sovereignty would mean joint control of the naval base and other military installations, especially since both countries are now full members of NATO.

British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon has made it clear that this was not intended to be part of the deal. Gibraltar is seen as 'a vital forward operational base, a thousand miles closer to any likely area of military engagement: He is no doubt mindful that on recent occasions Gibraltar's facilities have been essential to Britain for strategic and logistical reasons but, under joint operation, there might have been serious disputes with Spain.

For example, the British task force sent to the South Atlantic in 1982 used Gibraltar as a base, whereas Spain supported the Argentine claim to the Falkland Islands. Or the problems of the nuclear-powered submarine HMS Tireless, which spent twelve months in Gibraltar between 2000 and 2001 undergoing complicated repairs to its reactor cooling system.

Although in the days of rapid reaction forces Gibraltar's location may not appear as important as it once was, it is evident that Britain prefers to preserve the option to use it for independent action, especially given its location at the gateway to the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

SERIOUS OPPOSITION

The third miscalculation by the British government is the extent of opposition to the proposal at home. When Blair and Straw took their leap forward in July last year as a part of the so-called Brussels process on Gibraltar which had begun in 1984, they must have calculated that the Conservative party could hardly object to progress being made within a framework that they had initiated. But in 1984 Britain wanted to clear the way for Spain's entry into the European Community and to facilitate the opening of the border which had been closed by General Franco in 1969, and so it felt constrained to agree to discuss with Spain 'all the differences between them over Gibraltar,including sovereignty.

For thirteen years Conservative governments kept their side of the agreement and at regular intervals discussion on sovereignty took place, but without any concessions to Spain's ambitions in view of the known position of Gibraltarians. Now in opposition, the Conservatives have therefore made considerable capital out of the joint sovereignty proposal, accusing the Labour government of betraying the people of Gibraltar and promising to undo any agreement reached with Spain.

Domestic opposition is not confined to the Conservative party. Unlike Hong Kong, which ordinary British people saw as different and distant when the time for the handover to China arrived in 1997, Gibraltar has a place in the affections of many who see it, with its British-style police officers, post boxes and shops, as a piece of Britain in continental Europe. Any hint of a sellout will not go down well in the English home counties.

SURPRISED

The fourth miscalculation concerns the response of Gibraltarians themselves. The British government will have expected strong initial opposition to the proposals, but it appeared not to realise that the promise of more telephone lines -- which had been restricted by Spain - increased access to Spanish hospitals and ending harassment at the border would be seen as an insult, implying that their sovereignty and identity could be bought off such concessions.

London has also seemed surprised that the Chief Minister of Gibraltar, Peter Caruana, and his colleagues have declined to participate in negotiations. Yet it has been unable to allay Gibraltarians' concern that any agreement reached, even though they might object to it, would remain `on the table: Moreover, Spain's previous Foreign Minister, Josep Pique, stated that the opinion of the people of Gibraltar `is not relevant' on the question of sovereignty - scarcely a ringing encouragement for their representatives to take part.

Throughout, Britain has reiterated its commitment to a referendum on any agreement, but Straw has made it clear that it would not be held for some time, possibly for years, to allow Gibraltarians time to accept the idea of shared control. Small wonder that the residents of the Rock have decided to hold their own referendum, even though there is no formal agreement between Britain and Spain on which to vote. Despite Straws assertion that the result will be dismissed by his government, the expected overwhelming rejection of any sharing of sovereignty will be hard to ignore entirely and is bound to have an influence on subsequent Anglo-Spanish discussions.

AUTONOMY FOR ALL

There are also important consequences for Spain which the Madrid government may not have had in mind when it eagerly accepted London's offer. As part of any agreement, Britain and Spain have promised Gibraltar a greater degree of autonomy. This immediately caused Basques and Catalans to prick up their ears, for although nationalists - as distinct from separatists - in both regions accept their role within the Spanish state, Madrid would find itself under pressure to match the autonomy in northern Spain with that enjoyed by Gibraltar under joint sovereignty. That in turn could lead other regions to press for increased autonomy, resulting in something of a constitutional crisis in Spain.

YOUR ENCLAVE OR MINE?

The other major consequence for Spain concerns its relations with Morocco. There is a long-standing dispute between the two over the North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. Both have belonged to Spain for centuries, and although it has handed other North African territories to Morocco since its independence in 1956, it has steadfastly refused to contemplate any discussion of the future sovereignty of these enclaves.

Constitutionally they are part of metropolitan Spain - like the French Departements d'Outre Mer - and in that sense different from Gibraltar. But whenever Morocco has the opportunity to do so - and especially when the question of Gibraltar has a higher than usual profile - it raises the enclave issue to draw attention to what it sees as Spain's double standards.

Relations between Rabat and Madrid are currently under strain for a number of reasons, including the spat, ostensibly sparked by illegal immigration issues, over Parsley Island earlier this year. They are unlikely to improve if Britain and Spain proceed with an agreement on Gibraltar, as there will undoubtedly be renewed pressure on Spain from its southern neighbour over the future of the enclaves.

Taken together, these miscalculations and consequences, plus the result of Gibraltar's own referendum, may cause Spain and Britain to seek a way to put the whole issue on the backburner and then throw away the matches. If they do, Gibraltarians will be mightily relieved.