CINCINNATI -- Among the stocks featured in the November 8 edition of Schaeffer's Market Blog are Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV), Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK), and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN). Schaeffer's Market Blog is just one of the many free market commentaries written every day at www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The Market Blog is written throughout every trading day by Schaeffer's financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's most notable market activity from an options perspective. To have this report delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link and you'll also get an opportunity to win an iPod Nano. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13M&PAGE=1 .
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10:07 Hovnanian Drops
As if it hasn't been a rough week for homebuilders already, Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV) announced that it expects to recognize impairment charges and report a fourth-quarter loss. The company expects to take roughly $300 million in quarterly impairment and land-option write-off charges. HOV's previous estimate was in a range between $5 and $5.75 per share, with the consensus estimate calling for $5 per share. Without the expected charges, the company expects to deliver between $4.85 and $5.25 per share.
Late yesterday, HOV announced that net contracts for the fourth quarter dropped 36 percent in comparison to a year ago. Cancellations represented 35 percent of gross contracts, up from 33 percent in the third quarter. Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian stated, "our financial results for the fourth quarter continued to be negatively impacted by high cancellation rates and increased use of concessions and incentives, particularly on the resale of those homes which experienced contract cancellations." Hovnanian echoed comments from other homebuilders' CEOs this week that they have yet to see signs of improvement in the nation's housing market.
This negative news has HOV nearly 1.5 percent lower in this morning's early trading.
10:58 AM New Vision at Limited Brands
More push-up bras for everyone! Bloomberg News reported today that Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD) is expanding the floor space of its Victoria's Secret locations by as much as 10 percent in 2007. The move fits into the retailer's strategy to lift its per-share profit by 12 percent a year.
Technically speaking, LTD has enjoyed a push-up of its own, rallying 65 percent in the past 12 months. During the past few months, the stock has used the support of its rising 10-day and 20-day moving averages to stair-step to a new all-time high.
As LTD approaches its quarterly earnings report next Thursday (November 16), options players are slightly predisposed to the bearish camp. Currently, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 0.98, in the 63rd annual percentile of all readings gathered over the past year. Analysts are straddling the fence as well, with eight "buy" ratings along with eight "holds." Both Reuters and Zacks report a consensus earnings expectation of seven cents per share for next week's report; one year ago, LTD posted a per-share loss of three cents.
10:59 AM NYSE & NASDAQ New Highs/New Lows With Equity Scorecard
Each day, our Trader's Blog features tables with stocks achieving new annual highs or lows while sporting an "extreme" Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard rating. Today's tables include Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) and its score of 9.0 out of 10 and RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK) and its score of 8.0 out of 10.
11:48 AM Puts Pop on Urban Outfitters
A put/call open interest ratio is simply the ratio of total put open interest to total call open interest. We compute Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) based on open interest in the front three months only. These near-term options tend to attract a more speculative crowd, the sentiment of which is more useful for shorter-term trading.
One of the filters available in our Schaeffer's Plus is the Daily SOIR Changes filter, which lists the stocks that have seen the largest percentage jump in their SOIR overnight.
I was caught by the significant jump in Urban Outfitter's (NASDAQ:URBN) SOIR from 1.26 to 1.52, which is now higher than all other readings taken during the past year. In trading on Tuesday, open interest at the equity's December 15 put jumped by more than 3,800 contracts, while the December 17.50 put added roughly nearly 2,900 contracts. The majority of this volume appears linked to what could have been a ratio backspread. The December 17.50 put has a total of 1,831 contracts trade between 10:03 and 10:09 a.m. Eastern time, which were marked "spread." These contracts changed hands between the bid and ask price at 0.60. Meanwhile, the December 15 put has 3,662 contracts cross the tape at the same time as a bid price of 0.10.
Yesterday, the firm announced that third-quarter same-store sales dropped 10 percent. Total sales rose seven percent to $308 million, driven by a 24-percent increase in the total number of stores in operation. On Tuesday, the stock gained 2.7 percent to close at $18.36. The equity is determined to continue its rally today, as it is currently up 1.9 percent at $18.70.
For more information on these stocks or any stock in your portfolio, feel free to visit our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard feature. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1.
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About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com)
Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method .