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Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog Features: Northwest Natural Gas, Louisiana Pacific, AutoZone,...

Publication: Business Wire
Date: Monday, March 12 2007

CINCINNATI -- Among the stocks featured in the September 19 edition of Schaeffer's Market Blog are Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN), Louisiana Pacific (NYSE:LPX), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Apartment Investment and Management Company (NYSE:AIV), and DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX). Schaeffer's Market Blog

is just one of the many free market commentaries written every day at www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The Market Blog is written throughout every trading day by Schaeffer's financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's most notable market activity from an options perspective. To have this report delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link and you'll also get an opportunity to win an iPod Nano. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13M&PAGE=1 .

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9:57 AM NYSE & NASDAQ New Highs - New Lows With Scorecard

We're looking at nearly 30 stocks today that sport "extreme" ratings on our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard. One possible bullish pick is Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN), which scores a grade of 9.0, suggesting upside potential over the near term. On the bearish side, one possible play is Louisiana Pacific (NYSE:LPX), which earns a Scorecard rating of 3.0 on the scale ranging from zero to 10.

11:00 AM AutoZone Earnings Top Street Estimates

This morning, specialty retailer AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) announced fourth-quarter earnings of $213.5 million, or $2.92 per share, up from $2.66 per share posted in the previous year. Excluding unique items, the company would have banked $2.96 per share in the reporting period, handily trumping analysts' expectations of $2.79 per share. Sales rose three percent during the quarter to $1.94 billion, while same-store sales edged 0.9 percent lower, amid rising fuel costs and interest rates.

Investors are reacting well to this news, sending the shares more than four percent higher against the backdrop of a slightly depressed broader market. AZO has enjoyed a short-term uptrend since early July, rising nearly 20 percent during the past two months. Today's rally has forced the stock's 10-week and 20-week moving averages into the beginnings of a bullish crossover, which is a promising technical sign.

Short-covering could become a factor over the short-term, as more than seven percent of the equity's float is devoted to the short side. What's more, it would currently take more than seven days of trading (at the stock's average daily volume) to cover all of the AZO shares sold short. Should today's jump higher merely perpetuate the stock's upward ambitions, some of the bears could begin to scamper toward the exits.

11:34 AM Apartment Living

Apartment Investment and Management Company (NYSE:AIV) is a real-estate investment trust (REIT) that leads the rental game. The firm owns or manages more than 240,000 apartment units, according to Hoover's. The company's properties are located in 47 states, Puerto Rico, and Washington, D.C.

The stock has mustered a modest gain today of 1.6 percent after Lehman Brothers boosted its rating on the shares to "equal weight" from "underweight." The brokerage said recent improvements in AIV's operations lay the foundation for future gains.

Technically speaking, AIV has enjoyed a monster uptrend off its May 2004 low, more than doubling in value since this time. Over the short-term, AIV has used the support of its 10-day and 20-day moving averages to shoot 25 percent higher since early July.

The shares earn a respectable Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard rating of 8.0 thanks to this positive price action propped against a backdrop of skepticism. Options players have raised the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) to 2.90, which is higher than 92 percent of the past year's ratings. Additionally, the shares boast a short-interest ratio of more than five days to cover, and analysts are skeptical, with only three "buy" ratings from the nine analysts' covering the stock (prior to this morning's upgrade).

12:19 PM DaimlerChrysler Cuts Production

DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX) is seeing some attention today after announcing it will reduce its second-half production by 135,000 vehicles, dropping total output 10 percent below 2005 shipments. The reduction will mostly be focused on high-margin truck and sport-utility vehicles and will allow the automaker to reduce inventory and develop new products. The company also projected a retail market share for Chrysler of 10.6 percent in the third quarter and 11.7 percent in the second half, down from prior projections of 11.2 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively.

The shares are virtually unchanged today. On Friday, DCX shares endured a bear gap lower after DCX lowered its operating profit forecast for the full year and Moody's downgraded its long-term debt rating on the firm to Baa1 from A1. The stock is now perched below its 20-month moving average, below which DCX has not endured a monthly close since June 2005.

Options players remain wedged in the bullish camp, as suggested by the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.04. While this reading, on an absolute basis, means that puts continue to outnumber calls in the front two-months' series, it is important to look at this figure on a relative scale. The current reading is lower than 82 percent of the past year's data, suggesting that the options crowd is more optimistic than usual. Should this group's support of DCX begin to waver, further downside could be in the offing for the underlying shares.

For more information on these stocks or any stock in your portfolio, feel free to visit our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard feature. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1.

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About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com)

Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method .

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