CINCINNATI -- Among the stocks featured in the August 11 edition of Schaeffer's Market Blog are Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB), Ford Motor (NYSE:F), Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ:PSUN), and Goldcorp (NYSE:GG). Schaeffer's Market Blog is just one of the many free market commentaries written every day at www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The Market Blog is written throughout every trading day by Schaeffer's financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's most notable market activity from an options perspective. For additional information about this report or to have it delivered to you free via email every day click on the following link. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13M&PAGE=1 .
Schaeffer's Market Blog for Friday, August 11, 2006:
Below are just a few of today's Market Blog entries. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1 .
Posted 10:03 AM Strong Buying at Kohl's, and it Still Looks Like a Bargain
Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) department stores reported second-quarter results after the bell yesterday. Earnings were up 24 percent to $232.4 million, or 69 cents per share, beating the analyst estimate by a nickel. Total sales showed a 14-percent increase to $3.29 billion, and the company raised its earnings forecast for the full year to a range of $3.04 to $3.14 per share from previous guidance of $2.91 to $3.02 a share.
The stock gapped higher on the open to hit the highest levels we have seen since September 2003. At last check it was up 2.5 percent at $59.70. There is some reason to hope for further gains. This week the stock confirmed the support of its ascending 10-week moving average. Short interest is 3.2 percent of the float, not really enough to fuel much of a short-covering rally, though short selling did gain in popularity in July. The stock has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.02, indicating that puts and calls are just about equally popular. This ratio is higher than 80 percent of those taken during the past year, suggesting that sentiment in the options pits lies toward the pessimistic end of the spectrum. From our contrarian perspective, this is a good sign, because it suggests that money could be waiting on the sidelines. On our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard, the stock earns 8.0 out of 10, pointing to further gains. KSS is a stock you might like to watch. One word of warning, though. According to Zacks, of the 18 analysts who rate the stock, 10 see it as a "strong buy," and there is only one "sell" rating of any kind. This leaves room for damaging downgrades should the stock stumble.
I notice that the August 60 put (KSS TL) and August 60 call (KSS HL) have already traded more than 1,000 contracts each this morning. Later today, I'm schedule to write our Options Update column. If this heavy trading on KSS continues, maybe I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock's prospects.
Posted 12:22 PM Rockin' Robin
One of the top-performing stocks on the Nasdaq Market today is upscale fast-food concern Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB), which has charged more than eight percent higher on heavy volume, rebounding from an annual low set earlier this week and overtaking its 10-day moving average. Yesterday evening, the company reported second-quarter net income of 43 cents per share, on revenue that expanded 19 percent to $135.9 million. Analysts were expecting per-share results of 39 cents on $135.6 million in revenue. Same-store sales in the period rose 3.3 percent.
Looking forward to the third quarter, the company hopes to earn between 33 cents and 37 cents per share on $147 million to $149 million in revenue. Excluding items, RRGB is targeting per-share results of 40 to 44 cents. Wall Street is targeting earnings of 47 cents on revenue of $147.8 million.
Expectations must have been rather deflated heading into this earnings announcement, given the stock's rally today on a rather lackluster outlook. In fact, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is higher than all but 92 percent of the past year's reading. Additionally, almost 31 percent of the stock's float has been sold short.
Posted 12:32 PM Ford CEO Predicts Further Consolidation in the Auto Industry
Addressing an event in Goteborg, Swedeon, the chief executive of Ford Motor (NYSE:F), Bill Ford, noted that "there is a pattern of consolidation in the (auto) industry and that consolidating is continuing." Referencing his company's own partnership, Ford noted that the partnership with Volvo has been a positive one, thanks to various efficiencies.
Looking to the future, he noted that ethanol is the next step for the automobile industry in terms of creating alternative power sources, but admitted that "the holy grail" is hydrogen-powered fuel cells for vehicles. Environmental requirements and demands are driving up costs for automakers, but these costs can never be fully recovered, he opined.
F shares are currently the most-active name on the New York Stock Exchange and have gained 1.2 percent. The stock is continuing to build off its annual low of 6.06, which it reached in late July. Standing in the way is the stock's overhead 10-month moving average, which has contained all but one monthly close in F since July 2004. Sentiment is mixed on the equity, which boasts a historically low SOIR reading but has decent levels of short interest.
Posted 2:20 PM Bad Market Breadth
With less than two hours left in the trading week, market breadth is looking a little sluggish. On the New York Stock Exchange, there are 1,031 advancers compared with 2,184 stocks sitting below the breakeven zone. What's more, there are just 32 new highs today (including Kohl's (KSS)) compared with 64 new lows (Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) leads this list).
The picture is even bleaker at the Nasdaq Market. There are currently 853 Nasdaq members in positive territory alongside 1,932 decliners. Just 14 stocks have managed to reach new highs, while 112 are in new-low territory for the year. Among the Nasdaq new lows are Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) , which reported sub-par earnings results last night, and Amazon.com (AMZN) .
Posted 2:30 PM Goldcorp Glides Lower
Last night, Canadian mining concern Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) reported second-quarter earnings of $190.4 million, or 49 cents per share, compared with year-ago results of $98.0 million (28 cents per share). Adjusted for unique items, the company would have banked 36 cents per share, a penny better than Wall Street's estimates. Revenue 62.9 percent to $491.6 million. This morning, GG was greeted with a brokerage upgrade, as Raymond James lifted its rating to an "outperform" from a "market perform."
Despite this positive nugget of news, GG has sloughed off 1.3 percent in today's trading action. Part of the blame must be assigned to gold futures, which have dropped $8.30 to $632.10 an ounce after suffering a fairly substantial pullback in Thursday's trading. The StreetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) ETF has dropped 0.71 percent on the day. For its part, GG has been shuffling sideways since late June under short-term resistance near the 31.50 level. Today's decline has brought the stock back below its 10-day moving average.
For more information on these stocks or any stock in your portfolio, feel free to visit our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard feature. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1.
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Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method .