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dr. phil

No new show has a better chance of survival than King World's Dr. Phil. Reported clearances in 96 percent of the country is more than any other new first-run series (see chart on page 20); weekly appearances on parent show Oprah is a bonus no other program enjoys; and possessing the cushiest time periods in town (contractually, no station can air Dr. Phil opposite Oprah) clearly gives Dr. Phil McGraw an edge. But could there be a double edge at work here?

"Dr. Phil definitely has standout potential—people obviously know him from years on Oprah, and they know what he is all about," said Brad Adgate, senior vp of corporate research at Horizon Media. "But not every show with great expectations is a guaranteed success. It didn't happen with Roseanne, Martin Short or Howie Mandel, and two of those three shows [Roseanne and Short] were also from King World."

"Since viewers already know Dr. Phil, they need to make sure that the program they deliver is the one viewers want to see," adds Ross Crystal, executive director of entertainment development at Westwood One in Los Angeles and former host of the locally produced talk show Panorama on WTTG in Washington, D.C. from 1980-84. "If that happens, there is every reason to believe Dr. Phil will succeed."

Of course, in an environment where even a seemingly sure thing can turn into one of the biggest disasters in the history of television (USA Today: The Television Show in 1988 should ring an immediate bell), nothing—including a show associated with Oprah—is a given. Even Oprah's best friend and former frequent guest, Gayle King, hit the skids after just one season as a talk show host in 1997-98.

"The real test is whether or not viewers want to see Dr. Phil on a daily basis instead of just once a week," notes John Rash, senior vp, director of broadcast negotiations at Campbell Mithun. "By sharpening his skills as a talk show host on Oprah, I think he has a good shot at success."

Odds of survival for dr. phil: 2-1



caroline rhea

It's not often that a talk show gets a second chance, but Caroline Rhea is one of those rare instances, and she can thank Warner Bros. Add to that twist the fact that she is in effect Rosie O'Donnell's replacement, and suddenly the industry is paying serious attention.

"Because Caroline Rhea is going into a production model that is already up and running, odds are more in favor of her succeeding," said Stacey Lynn Koerner, senior vice president, director of broadcast research at Initiative Media. "Instead of looking for a focus, the pace is already built in. That is an obvious advantage."

"If I had to