Fall TV

You've read TV Guide, Entertainment Weekly and probably a dozen other takes on the new television season. Now, it's our turn. Why now? First, we figured we might be of some help to agencies that are daring enough to be active in the scatter market so early in the new season. Next, we like the idea of evaluating the shows after they have made their debut--there is safety in numbers (ratings, that is). And finally, we just wanted to have the last word. In the pages that follow, the Mediaweek staff takes its annual look at what's new on TV. And a fresh look at something old--football--that could be either the salvation or ruination of the networks that carry it. A word about our ratings system: Four remotes is good, one remote means use it.

The Broadcast Networks
Bone-weary from carrying the weight of the sordid doings in Washington and the world, the American viewing public is crying out for the trivial, the frivolous, the just plain fun, the wisdom of Mister Ed. Or so the people who program the broadcast networks believe. That is why the freshman class of '98 has little to do with reality, despite what the producers, networks and stars might argue in their more philosophical moments.
Whether there will be a clear-cut Ally McBeal/Dharma & Greg hit to emerge out of the current thirty-six-pack, the overall quality of the new offerings make it probable that more will survive into midseason and beyond than did last year. Last fall, only six new shows out of 36 lived to see another year.
Here are some of the season's best bets:
If Felicity, a college freshman who follows her heart to New York, doesn't connect with at least the WB's target 12-34 audience early and often, it will be the season's biggest surprise. The drama is one--the only one--embraced by critics, advertisers and media buyers alike.
And Felicity deserves to succeed. The show about life and love did not make anyone's Top-10 list because of a juicy time period handed to it by a Big Four network. The pilot offered not just a preview of the possibilities, but substance. The show was there with writing as intelligent as it was heartfelt, acting that was true, and casting that made it a cover story before the premiere.
If viewers will show up on Saturday nights, Cupid is bound to steal its share of hearts. The ABC drama, starring Jeremy Piven as the god of love, sans bow and arrow, brings Mt. Olympus to Earth and not a moment too soon. His ticket back is to help 100 couples find each other. Meanwhile, he and co-star Paula Marshall, as his psychiatrist (overtones of Miracle on 34th Street, in which it's one thing to believe in Santa Claus but quite another to believe you are Santa), debate the relative merits of romance and manage to generate their own cosmic heat in the process. It's a sharp, sexy, poignant, funny drama that's hard not to love.
The motto in comedy this season could be "under one roof." Not since Gloria and Meathead moved in with Archie and Edith has there been such a rich array of family dysfunction. Maggie Winters, starring Murphy Brown's Faith Ford, leaves her husband and the big city and moves back in with mom on CBS. Nathan Lane leaves the world of opera in New York and moves back in with mom on NBC in Encore! Encore! Jerry Stiller plays an irascible and possibly psychotic father (now that's a real stretch) who moves in with his daughter and son-in-law in The King of Queens starring comic Kevin James on CBS. And in the best spot on prime time, between Friends and Frasier on NBC's Thursday, Jesse (Married.... With Children's Christina Applegate) is a single mom who finds herself back at home and coping in a sea of men--her son, her father, her brothers and a sexy next-door neighbor.
The good news is that each of the comedies manages to find a distinct way to tell the story. Faith Ford's Maggie Winters is sweet without being saccharin and Shirley Knight as mom is as inspired a choice as the writing is sharp. Queens' James is a football-crazed, beer-guzzling everyman who nevertheless has a sensitive, '90s side. When the substantially sized James hides under the sheets and tells his wife, "I feel fat," it is the kind of side-splitting/heart-breaking moment that Jackie Gleason delivered with regularity in The Honeymooners.
The sleepers of the year might well be the two retribution dramas--Vengeance Unlimited and Martial Law, and the comedy Will & Grace, a relationship show in the Julia Roberts(Eth)Rupert Everett My Best Friend's Wedding tradition. Media buyers and some critics like Martial Law--the Saturday-night lead-in to CBS hit Walker, Texas Ranger--a lot. In Vengeance, Michael Madsen, who has spent most of his professional life being dark, tortured and occasionally twisted (Reservoir Dogs), stars as the mysterious Mr. Chapel, whose main mission is to get even. Vengeance proves to be a smart, satisfying hour where the good guys don't finish last.
In Will & Grace, NBC has a show that truly fits its smart, sophisticated, urbane comedy brand. Starring Debra Messing as a straight woman and Eric McCor-mack as a gay man, the comedy gets to the heart of what makes for good friendships.
And prime time once again proves that history does repeat itself with some of the best turning out to be blasts from the past. This season's decade of choice is the '70s with Fox's teen-lifestyle comedy, That '70s Show, already drawing controversy and crowds on Sunday nights. Brought to you by the creative team who helped turn that quintessential '70s sitcom, The Brady Bunch, into a big-screen hit and a sequel, these guys know the territory.
On ABC, film director Barry Sonnenfeld, who's also behind the network's summer surrealist hit, Maximum Bob, puts his touch on a darker Fantasy Island with Malcolm McDowell signing on as Mr. Roarke. Sonnenfeld knows something about taking TV to other levels, and he doesn't disappoint with his take on Fantasyland.
Finally, CBS checks in with Buddy Faro on Friday nights, a Rat Pack-styled '70s PI who's lured out of retirement and back to Vegas. He hits the neon streets with style and a Gen-X sidekick and thus joins a raft of shows on CBS shooting for an audience that simply likes the '70s, not one that is 70. --Betsy Sharkey

Syndication
It is a season of stars. Whoopi Goldberg, Roseanne, Howard Stern, Pamela Lee and Donny and Marie Osmond are all in the syndicated mix this season. But there are also some unknowns, such as Joe Brown and Mills Lane. Who has the best chance of succeeding? If recent history is an indicator, the long-term growth prospects better favor the courtroom strips, Judge Joe Brown and Judge Mills Lane, over the big-ticket crapshoots.
For first-run series entering syndication, the courtroom genre, revived by Worldvision Enterprises' Judge Judy strip, has shown remarkable strength. Since its premiere in the 1996-97 season, when the independent distributor had to settle with lower-rated morning time periods on TV stations, Judge Judy has gone from averaging a 1.5 rating to up to a 6.0 rating nationally in much-improved early-fringe and prime-access clearances. Worldvision is attempting to capitalize on that success with Joe Brown, and Rysher Entertainment has Mills Lane attempting to further mine viewers' apparent thirst for courtroom resolution.
Advertisers, too, have taken a keen interest in the content-safe genre, giving Judge Judy what buyers estimate to be the biggest increases of last spring's upfront market. Judy was said to be scoring 60 percent increases to reach roughly a $13 CPM (or about $60,000 per unit), putting her within the A-tier range of Warner Bros.' Rosie O'Donnell and King World's Oprah Winfrey.
"I do think the genre has more room for growth and we think that Joe Brown can seize the bull by the horns and give it a good ride," says John Ryan, president/CEO of Worldvision. "This genre is still not nearly as broad as the talk-show arena today, but if there is a similarity, it is the fact that both are personality-driven. That is why viewers are so attracted to Judy and will find Joe Brown just as enigmatic."
Since opting for a preemptive summer premiere in August, Rysher's Mills Lane has been "averaging just north of a 2 rating and has been exhibiting some signs of week-to-week growth," says Marc Berman, associate program director of New York-based station rep firm Seltel. Mills Lane is a Nevada-based judge who is best known as the ring referee for the notorious ear-biting fight between Evander Holyfield and Mike Tyson in June 1997.
Compared to the courtroom shows, the talkers, even with marquee stars, look to face some tough going. Late night, in particular, has been a killing field, where Earvin Magic Johnson, Keenen Ivory Wayans and Sinbad have most recently been laid to rest. Daytime has been only a bit more forgiving, with Terry Bradshaw and actor/tanning specialist George Hamilton (and wife, Alana) among the casualties.
When King World signed comedienne Roseanne (nee Arnold, nee Barr), the New York-based syndication giant scored one of biggest stars on TV. But as closed-door development crept on for The Roseanne Show last summer, the show was having trouble deciding exactly what it would be. Since its premiere on Sept. 14, The Roseanne Show has tried to be everything for everybody, with a combination of comedy sketches, celebrity interviews, issue-oriented talk segments and music packed into each episode.
"It really looks like the show is following along with the multiple personalities Roseanne has talked about having in the past," says Seltel's Berman. "I got a little dizzy trying to keep up with what direction they're going in.
It looks like she and King World want to see what works with viewers, then move the show in that direction."
Another interesting project is the team of Donny and Marie Osmond. The singing duo, though nearly 20 years removed from their network variety series (ABC, 1976-79), provided Columbia TriStar with a strong sales presentation tape in an unadulterated variety show in the vein of Buena Vista's Live With Regis & Kathie Lee. However, unlike Regis & Kathie Lee's solid clearances on top-rated ABC-owned stations, Donny & Marie will face a challenge airing in handicapped morning clearances (either 9-10 or 10-11 a.m. in many markets) on lower-rated Fox-owned stations in the top 40 markets. These are the same time periods that were held by the late Fox After Breakfast, The Vicki Lawrence Show, Home Team With Terry Bradshaw and Scoop With Sam & Dorothy.
A week into its launch, King World's Hollywood Squares, which is getting clearance on low-rated CBS O&Os in the top 50 markets, looks like it may be a hit. It is the only game show to crack into prime access since King World launched the top-rated Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy! in the 1980s.
There are other games to be played in syndication this season. Two come from Warner Bros.' Telepictures Distribution division: Love Connection and Change of Heart. The shows have been cleared in primarily late-fringe time periods, some of which opened up with the deaths of The Magic Hour and Vibe last summer.
If there is a sure bet in syndie this season, it's Warner Bros.' off-network run of Friends, which benefits from strong double-run clearances (in access and late fringe) on many of the major-market Tribune Broadcasting stations. B-tier sitcoms such as Sister, Sister (Paramount) and News Radio and The Nanny (both from Columbia TriStar) also should perform admirably in fringe and access time periods.
Two ingredients that will continue to sell the weekly action series will be sex and action. Columbia TriStar's new action hour, V.I.P., featuring Pamela Anderson Lee as the head of a bodyguard agency, will have a strong male following. Fox-owned stations will provide strong fringe and access clearances.
And then there's Eyemark Entertainment's The Howard Stern Radio Show, which has already been dropped by a handful of stations over content. So far, Howard's played to a mostly empty house. But never underestimate this man or his fans. Howard is a true star--made up mostly of gas. --Michael Freeman

Cable
Traditionally, cable has done an end-run around broadcasting's fall season by introducing new series programming in the summer months, when the networks are coasting on reruns. Slowly, the strategy has helped cable improve its ratings. This year, cable beat the Big Four's August ratings numbers for the first time ever.
But the real test of cable's programming comes now, as the broadcasters roll out their fall shows. While there is little chance that any single show or network on cable is going to challenge the typical broadcast show in the ratings race, cable is capturing larger niche audiences in prime demographic categories. Here's what they have on the front lines in the war for ratings supremacy.
American Movie Classics: Following up on its first original series, Remember WENN, AMC has scheduled a December launch for The Lot, a half hour series about the Golden Age of Hollywood. AMC also has The Hollywood Fashion Machine, which considers the chimera of Hollywood and the fashion industry, hemmed for a winter release.
Animal Planet: No longer dealing with human-to-human small claims, Judge Wapner and side kick bailiff Rusty turn Dr. Doolittle tonight (Sept. 28) for Judge Wapner's Animal Court.
Cartoon Network: With Dexter's Laboratory and Cow & Chicken running successfully in strip since June, Cartoon is looking to further boost its original animation slate. The Powerpuff Girls and Ed Edd and Eddy will premiere on Cartoon in November.
CNN: The Cold War, a 24-hour documentary featuring interviews with seminal cold warriors ranging from Henry Kissinger to Fidel Castro, premiered last night and will run weekly on Sundays until April 4. The historical record uses U.S. classified information pried loose by the Freedom of Information Act and recently opened Soviet archives, to help further illuminate the political tensions between East and West from 1945 to 1991.
Comedy Central: Bob and Margret, an animated comedy series, and the anti-establishment comedy, Upright Citizen's Brigade started their runs over the summer. They are showing signs of adding strength to an already strong lineup, thanks to South Park.
Discovery: With unprecedented access to FBI files, this net has developed what else but The FBI Files. The hour-long show premieres tomorrow night (Sept. 29) at 10 p.m. and delves into the scientific legwork and lab work that cracked the country's most heinous crimes. Each episode deals with a single case, among them the Unabomber, the World Trade Center bombing and convicted Mafia boss John Gotti.
The Disney Channel: New animated and live-action programming will be running on Disney Channel this fall. A Henry Winkler project called So Weird, a mystery series about a traveling family and starring Mackenzie Phillips, bows in January. So Weird will be joined by the futuristic 3-D animation series called Rolie Polie Olie, which premieres Oct. 4 and The Famous Jett Jackson, the story of a 13-year-old TV star wishing for a normal life, which premieres Oct. 25.
Food Network: This net has three new fall series on the burner. East Meets West With Ming Tsai, premiering Sept. 29, takes a look at the melding of Eastern and Western cuisine. Following Ready, Set Cook, Pressure Cooker, which premieres Nov. 2, is another food-based game show that pits three "foodies" against each other. On Oct. 12, Food will premiere Ruggerio to Go!, which features prizefighter-turned-chef Chef David Ruggerio and his take on Brooklyn-style Italian American cuisine and other American culinary staples.
Fox Family Channel: Rupert Murdoch's all-family, all-the-time network launched this summer with an aggressive original-programming agenda. Of the stuff launched so far, Mr. Bill Presents and Captain Kangaroo's Treasure House kids morning block will have legs in the fall. And starting Oct. 19, the network is running 65 original episodes of The New Addams Family, the network's biggest original project for fall.
FX: Making a sharp turn towards comedy-based programming, Fox's FX has three original laugh-based shows fresh for fall. Bobcat's Big Ass Show, a variety show hosted by wiggy comedian Bobcat Goldthwait, made its debut June 1; Instant Comedy With the Groundlings, a classic comedy troupe a la Second City TV that spawned the likes of Phil Hartman, premiered on Sept 7. FX has also drafted magicians Penn & Teller, who host Penn & Teller's Sin City Spectacular, which premiered Aug. 10.
Game Show Network: Looking to challenge the traditional game show, Sony's Game Show Network will premiere Extreme Gong and Inquisition Oct. 5. Extreme Gong is the next generation of The Gong Show. The live show's acts are edgier and viewers bang the gong in lieu of the requisite C-grade celebs. Inquisition is the network's attempt to marry The X-Files with a game show. Four contestants are placed in an airplane hangar under hot lights and peppered with rapid-fire questions.
Home & Garden Television: True to its traditional M.O. HGTV is smithing tons of original shows Look for Vacation Living and, just in case you haven't had enough supermodel idolatry, Model Homes takes viewers into the boudoirs of six supermodels.
History Channel: Giving viewers a peek at the clandestine side of the major international happenings from the beginning of 20th century to present day, History Channel's Sworn to Secrecy premiered Sept. 6.
The Learning Channel: Putting down in a landing zone fraught with controversy and emotion, TLC next month presents Vietnam: The Soldier's Story. The six-part documentary premieres Oct. 11 and spans the full 10 years of the war with historical footage and powerful first-person interviews.
Lifetime: Lifetime this summer premiered two comedies, Oh Baby and Maggie and a drama, Any Day Now, which have successfully earned better ratings than any other Lifetime original.
MTV: Relying on its original-programming workhorses, MTV's schedule will be anchored by its Road Rules and The Real World. However, the network will unveil Revue, a half-hour revue show and The Cut, a weekly search for new breakout artists. Revue, which premieres on the network Oct. 24, profiles artists via their biography, philosophy and performance.
Nickelodeon: Continuing its run as a kids ratings magnet, Nickelodeon is expanding its programming reach to beat the broadcast networks in their own universe. So Nick has moved to package its Saturday-morning programming as Nicktoons TV. Moving even further, the network has also launched Nickel-O-Zone, expanding its kids programming in prime time by 30 minutes to 9 p.m. Finally, Nick will tackle weekday afternoons with the Oct. 5 premiere of CatDog, a toon about a dog that's part cat--or vice versa.
Romance Classics: Following the July premiere of Romancing America, the network's weekly travel guide to America's romantic hot spots, Romance Classics premiered on Sept. 3 Everyday Elegance with Colin Cowie, a weekly tip show on how to make the ordinary event extraordinary.
Sci-Fi Channel: Digitally remastered Star Trek episodes are already pulling in the trekkie legions. When Farscape bows in January, it will join Welcome to Paradox and Poltergeist: The Legacy, the largest slate of original programming ever run by Sci-Fi.
TNT: Looking to expand its sci-fi base built on Babylon 5, TNT has developed Crusade for a January premiere. An original series that has aliens unleashing a biogenetic plague and the race to find a cure, Crusade will begin its run with a two-hour original film. TNT also has Oliver Stone's action-adventure series Witchblade lined up for a January premiere as well.
Travel Channel: In the midst of a full-on programming rethink, Travel Channel tonight (Sept. 28) at 9 p.m. premieres Travel Daily, its daily hour on the ins and outs of travel, hosted by travel expert Peter Greenberg. The network will also introduce Conde Nast Traveler Presents Amazing Destinations. The hour show premieres tonight (Sept. 28) and will run Monday through Friday from 10-11 p.m.
USA: Cyber theatrical thriller-turned-series, The Net, which premiered in July, runs from 9-10 p.m. as part of USA's Saturday Night Heat block. The canceled Sins of the City, will run through the rest of 1998.
VH1: Continuing its role as cable's rock-'n'-roll archivist/pollster/quiz master, VH1 is expanding on the buzz of shows like Legends with Rock of Ages, Vinyl Justice and Rock & Roll Jeopardy. Rock of Ages asks widely disparate viewers to share their opinions on music videos. -- Jim Cooper

The View From Adland
Agencies, ever skeptical, still see a few hits in the fall crop
Prospects for the new TV season are not overly promising if you believe the experts on Madison Avenue. The seers in the ad business don't see much to get excited about on the network schedules. To be sure, it is not in the best interest of ad agencies or their clients to heap high praise on the shows in which they buy advertising--they're trying to buy time at the lowest possible cost. Most agency execs this year agree on one thing: Where a show is placed on the schedule is more important than how good it is. "New programming will not make or break each network this fall," says Steve Sternberg, senior partner at TN Media. "It will be more important to see how returning programs, especially those in new time slots, do."
Still, even the most cynical of agency buyers will concede that there will be successes. A survey of five shops, TN Media, Starcom, Ogilvy & Mather, Zenith and DeWitt reveals that agencies sometimes even agree on what shows will work.
Of the 38 new series on the six broadcast networks, excluding movies and newsmagazines, TN Media gave "passing grades" to six: ABC's Sports Night, Two of a Kind and Brother's Keeper; CBS' The King of Queens and WB's Felicity and Charmed.
DeWitt Media has selected 10 new shows it believes will "gain the largest audience." The new show DeWitt believes will have the largest initial viewership is NBC's Jesse, the sitcom starring Christina Applegate as a single mom. The show will air on Thursday night amidst NBC's blockbuster comedies--following Friends and as a lead-in to Frasier. DeWitt predicts Jesse will pull a household rating of 12.8/21. After Jesse, DeWitt predicts, the new show audience will drop off significantly. The next-most-watched new show will be ABC's Secret Lives of Men, which DeWitt predicts will pull a 9.9/16. Secret Lives, about three recently divorced men, will follow ABC's hit The Drew Carey Show, which is the network's most popular show among male audiences (other than Monday Night Football).
Fox's new comedy, That '70s Show, which made its debut in late August and has done well in the ratings thus far, will be the third- highest-rated new show, predicts DeWitt, pulling in a 9.5/14. The Hughleys, a comedy about a black family from the city that moves into a white suburb, is positioned between ABC's hit Home Improvement and Spin City, and should benefit from that. Rounding out DeWitt's Top 10 are ABC's Sports Night, CBS' The King of Queens and L.A. Doctors, NBC's Encore! Encore! and in a tie for 10th, CBS' The Brian Benben Show and NBC's Will & Grace. DeWitt's "definite misses" include NBC's Wind on Water, UPN's Desmond Pfeiffer and DiResta, Fox's Costello, WB's The Army Show, ABC's Vengeance Unlimited, and CBS' To Have and to Hold.
Zenith Media Services, the buying unit for Saatchi & Saatchi, predicts no sure "hits" among new entries. Eight new programs that "show promise" are NBC's Jesse, ABC's The Hughleys, Secret Lives of Men, Two of a Kind and Sports Night, Fox's That '70s Show, and CBS' The King of Queens and L.A. Doctors.
Starcom Media Services, the buying unit for Leo Burnett, predicts three new shows--ABC's Secret Lives of Men, NBC's Jesse, and CBS' Martial Law--will win their time periods.
Ogilvy & Mather picks two shows as sure shots: ABC's Two of a Kind and WB's Felicity. Ogilvy also selects eight new shows as having a "good chance" of success: ABC's The Hughleys and Brother's Keeper; CBS' L.A. Doctors and Maggie Winters; NBC's Jesse; UPN's Guys Like Us and DiResta; and WB's Charmed.
Zenith believes NBC will continue to lead in all key demographics, but by less. Zenith also believes ABC will win Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday nights in households, with CBS taking the weekend and NBC still dominant on Thursday. TN predicts CBS will challenge NBC for the household lead and says NBC "will be more clearly in front among all key female age groups under 50. Fox will lead among men 18-34 and will finish second to NBC among adults 18-49 once the football season ends. ABC will lead among men over 35 during football season, and then fall back, but will lead among kids. WB has become and will remain the teen leader, and CBS will continue its franchise among older viewers," although the median age of its audience will drop a bit. --John Consoli n