2004 Industry Outlook Hinges on Jobs, Campaigns

Ad revenue for newspapers rose 1.6% in the first nine months of 2003, and if gains in the job market continue 2004 is expected to be more bullish than last year.

John Morton, a media analyst with Morton Research Inc. in Silver Spring, Md., was guardedly optimistic when he told the Puget Sound Business Journal he's forcasting between 3%-5% growth this year. "It should be better than 2003, but not a bang-up year," Morton told the paper. "A lot depends on what's happening in employment."

Declining demand for help-wanted classifieds kept newspaper revenues down last year. Kerry Coughlin, spokesperson for The Seattle Times Co., said classified ad sales for the Times and Seattle Post-Intelligencer were down 7.5% in 2003.

A 3.5% jump in retail advertising helped the publisher keep overall revenues flat.

John Irby, associate professor in Washington State University's Communications Department, told the Puget Sound Business Journal that newspapers used to receive a boost during election years. But a lot of political advertising has gone to broadcasters.