Chart Your Own Course, With Care

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"As you map the route your shop will take in 2004, consider the lesson I took from this road trip: It's all fun and games until somebody drives off a cliff."

The beginning of this new year is marked

with mixed emotions. While the U.S. economy is on the rebound, the printing industry's upturn is not expected to last. At December's Print Outlook 2004 conference in Washington, NPES consulting economist Michael Evans said that although 2004 will be a strong year, "We will see a wind-down of growth to below average rates in 2005 and 2006." What goes up must come down and in this industry, down dominates. The road ahead is not a straight, sleek superhighway. There are more twists and turns to come, along with plenty of potholes.

Some print business owners are trailblazers. They boldly go where no print business has gone before, investing in new equipment, methods and materials based on the recommendations of others. Some of them fail; others achieve dramatic growth. More cautious print business owners lead their regional markets by taking a proven path and moving on new technology only after the trailblazers have tested its validity. Still others choose to rest comfortably in second or third place, rather than risk their stability for the spoils of competitive warfare.

I took a trip through California, recently, and learned that although I prefer to be a trailblazer, applying a more cautious approach might extend my life immeasurably. After hiking uphill (both ways) in San Francisco for awhile, it was time to rent a car and spend a few restful days in wine country. Relaxation being the goal, our itinerary was constructed very loosely. My friend and I spent the first day in Napa Valley, then followed the Silverado Trail northward. After day two's breakfast in Rutherford, we searched in vain for Francis Ford Coppola's chateau and decided to move on to our next destination, one valley over.

We'd forgotten to consider the mountain in between. Mapquest had displayed its best route, but hadn't indicated anything about grades of incline or severity of turns. My companion (a fellow Flatlander and the driver for this leg of our journey) later commented that there should have been a cartoon character holding a sign that read "Welcome to Crazytown" as we ascended the first in several series of steep hairpin turns.

I can't imagine how people drink and drive through California's wine country. This road might exist for the very purpose of weeding those folks out of the population.

The last push to the top was a 360-degree spin up a narrow, 45-degree incline. On its downside, we found a slow-moving tractor whose driver pulled aside and started to wave. Apparently, he assumed we'd want to go faster down the mountain. Tensions ran a little high as my hapless friend pulled around him and navigated the next blind curve on the wrong side of the road. But, we made it.

After that trip, our cliff-side drive down the coastal highway to Steinbeck territory was a breeze.

There always are multiple paths to any single destination, including success in business. The Print Outlook presenters noted several top concerns for 2004. These include digital printing, value-added services, efficiency, continuing industry consolidation, emerging offshore markets and postal reform.

As you map the route your shop will take in 2004, consider the lesson I took from this road trip: It's all fun and games until somebody drives off a cliff. Long version: Sometimes the traditional approach (in our case, consulting a detailed, printed road map; for a print business owner, reviewing the business plan vs. key industry trends) can help ensure one's adventure into the future is cushioned with preparedness and bolstered by a proven fallback position.

Don't forget to send a postcard and let the rest of the I&SCP readership know how you're doing.

Dennis Lontz