Ac Surges, N/t Drops In Winter Arbitrons

NEW YORK‹Whatever Monica Lewinsky may have done for President Clinton, she didn't do much for news/talk stations this past winter, judging from Billboard/Airplay Monitor's national Arbitron winter numbers. AC stations, however, had their best book in nearly four years, apparently benefiting from country radio's misfortunes. R&B stations were off slightly‹with upper-demo losses that suggested the format's increasingly hip-hop-driven nature might finally be exiling some adults‹while rock and top 40 were flat.
N/T stations had a good fall book and no reason to expect anything but a better winter. But N/T, while still the leading format in Arbitron's 94 continuous-measurement markets, was off 16.5-16.2 12-plus this winter. It was down in all dayparts except middays, where it was up 17.1-17.3. Although that could mean Rush Limbaugh and all midday talkers were benefiting from Interngate, that 17.3 share is only two-tenths higher than where the format was in winter '97 and winter '96.
The No. 2 format, AC, was up 14.4-15.1 for its best book since fall '94, although that's still short of the 17-18 shares the format was commanding before its slide began in the mid-'90s. AC was up in every daypart. It was off 8.8-8.5 in teens, news that won't disturb any AC sales manager, but it rose in every other demo, including 18-34 (15.7-16.7), 25-54 (16.7-17.7), 35-64 (16.1-17.0), 18-plus women (18.9-19.8), and men (10.7-11.4).
A few things seem to be happening on the AC front. One is that AC, not top 40, seems to be the beneficiary of country's ongoing decline; country was off 10.3-9.8 12-plus this time. Country seemed to stabilize several books ago, but this slide was the sharpest since winter '96, when the format lost an entire share. Country had its lowest number since summer '90. And it's not that far from the 9.2 level, where the format started its rise in 1989. Its teen number‹again, a demo that few stations target‹was down 5.8-5.2, its lowest number in that demo since summer '91.
Part of country's decline is explained by the smaller number of stations. As faltering country outlets exit the format, not all of their listening is being reclaimed by rivals. Last fall, 257 country stations were rated in the continuous-measurement markets, down from 319 in summer '95. This book, it was 250.
Then there's the format's recent musical changes. Many country PDs have refocused their efforts on upper demos, adding more gold and midtempo music. Yet the 25-54 and 35-64 demos were down more sharply than the 18-34 group. That reinforces the claims of some PDs that younger listeners are, in some cases, more enthusiastic about hearing some oldies again than older listeners.
But those drops‹coupled with AC's gains and recent programming changes in both formats‹suggest that an increasingly perky and current-driven AC may be claiming the "new, uptempo, but adult-friendly" franchise that made country such a potent force in the early '90s. It also suggests that some of the adults who might normally be making their way back to top 40 are stopping at AC (or adult top 40) on the way.
Top 40, which fell sharply during the fall after six months of growth in early '97, was again flat in the winter, holding at an 8.2 share 12-plus. Top 40 was up slightly at nights (11.6-11.8), in teens (30.2-30.7), 18-34 (12.2-12.4), 35-64 (4.1-4.2), and adult women (7.6-7.7), but it was off in 25-54 (6.6-6.5) and adult males (5.4-5.3). This suggests that while the format may not be getting cannibalized by adult top 40 and modern AC stations that differ from top 40 by only a few titles, those formats have managed to stem top 40's growth.
R&B had recently been on a major growth spurt, with one record-setting book after another since early and mid-'96. This time, it's off one-tenth, 11.9-11.8; that includes both mainstream and adult R&B outlets.
R&B had its highest teen number ever but was flat 18-34 and off 25-54 (11.4-11.1) and 35-64 (9.3-9.0). It was up in nights (18.4-18.7, another best-ever number) but flat in mornings and afternoons and off in middays (9.3-9.0).
When we break out numbers for adult R&B stations, they remain solid in 25-54, holding at 5.1. Now consider that many mainstream R&B stations are more hip-hop-driven than ever and that some of the stations that would normally move most rap out of middays when the kids go back to school didn't do so last fall. If mainstream R&B is losing in 25-54 and middays, perhaps mainstream PDs need to reconsider their dayparting.
(It's worth noting that if you look at the 35-64 demo, mainstream R&B outlets hold firm while adult R&B stations were off sharply, 5.4-4.9. Then again, mainstream R&B's number in that demo, 4.1, was already small to begin with. And, unlike someone in the 25-34 cell who can listen to either mainstream or adult R&B with equal comfort, listeners in the 35-64 group have more likely chosen one camp or the other. Jazz stations, in any event, were up 3.0-3.2 12-plus, their first good book since summer '96. This suggests they might also be picking up a disenfranchised R&B listener or two.)
Rock formats were flat or down slightly this time out, with album rock holding at a 6.8 share 12-plus‹still tied for its second-lowest book since we started the national Arbitron survey 10 years ago. Classic rock slipped one-tenth of a share (4.7-4.6). Modern rock, which was also solid at a 4.1 for the last year, was finally off slightly, 4.1-4.0.
As with top 40, we've believed for the past few books that the new modern adult stations were stunting modern AC's growth but not cannibalizing its existing numbers. This winter, modern was up slightly in 25-54 and 35-64 but off in teens, which suggests the recent musical softening by some modern rock outlets has made the format's demographic profile a little older but hasn't had much overall effect.
In other format news, the Spanish format tied its best-ever book, up 6.2-6.3 12-plus. Oldies stations were off 6.1-5.8; while those losses were across the board, many oldies PDs are worried that there aren't many listeners left for the format younger than age 40. Adult standards outlets were up 3.4-3.5. Classical was up 1.7-1.8, despite the recent losses of several major-market outlets. Religious stations were flat at 2.2.