Youngsters drive ELT growth
Friday, May 23 2003
Published on AllBusiness.com
In my last survey of the English Language Teaching business (The Bookseller, 14th January 2000), I concluded that the "halcyon days" were over for the ELT publishers, but that there were still excellent growth and profits to be gained from this market. Three years on, I still consider this to be true. Overall, the ELT materials market has continued to show growth, because, globally, the demand for English learning persists, albeit on a lower growth track than in the 1980s.
The market in 2002
This market growth, while encouraging, was patchy in 2002, both geographically and by segment. Most publishers agree that the main area driving growth at present is young learners, in all continents. The exception at adult level is the IELTS (International English Language Testing Service) examination, which has grown dramatically, especially in Asia, and now provides excellent publishing opportunities.
Geographically, of course, there were some problem areas, and Argentina in particular provided a dangerous combination of reduced demand and large returns. But western Europe, which a few years ago seemed to be in danger of declining, appears to be showing continued signs of expansion, mostly driven by the further development of foreign language teaching in primary schools (e.g. Germany and Switzerland).
Spain had a good year in 2002, mainly due to another reform in the secondary school system, and the primary reform scheduled for 2004 (with English being introduced as low as Grade One) should provide further good business for those publishers who have the right product. Turkey may or may not be part of Europe, but it provided a bad year in 2002 for most publishers because of its economic problems and a continuing decline in its currency.
Latin America was badly affected by Argentina; in addition, Brazil was flat, due to the devalued currency and lack of demand. However, Mexico gained from a stable currency and economic growth, and several publishers have reported record sales there.
Eastern and central Europe have been an excellent source of regional growth, but this market has now largely matured—with the exception of Russia. Russia has become a notable market again, and there is clearly a great deal of potential left, assuming the right market conditions. The admission of several central European countries into the European Union over the next few years may drive a renewed interest in learning English, and may also improve the pricing regime.
Asia showed good growth for most ELT publishers last year, with South Korea doing well; but Japan is still flat and with a continuing demographic decline. Thailand is now clearly established as an important market. This leaves China as the
The market in 2002
This market growth, while encouraging, was patchy in 2002, both geographically and by segment. Most publishers agree that the main area driving growth at present is young learners, in all continents. The exception at adult level is the IELTS (International English Language Testing Service) examination, which has grown dramatically, especially in Asia, and now provides excellent publishing opportunities.
Geographically, of course, there were some problem areas, and Argentina in particular provided a dangerous combination of reduced demand and large returns. But western Europe, which a few years ago seemed to be in danger of declining, appears to be showing continued signs of expansion, mostly driven by the further development of foreign language teaching in primary schools (e.g. Germany and Switzerland).
Spain had a good year in 2002, mainly due to another reform in the secondary school system, and the primary reform scheduled for 2004 (with English being introduced as low as Grade One) should provide further good business for those publishers who have the right product. Turkey may or may not be part of Europe, but it provided a bad year in 2002 for most publishers because of its economic problems and a continuing decline in its currency.
Latin America was badly affected by Argentina; in addition, Brazil was flat, due to the devalued currency and lack of demand. However, Mexico gained from a stable currency and economic growth, and several publishers have reported record sales there.
Eastern and central Europe have been an excellent source of regional growth, but this market has now largely matured—with the exception of Russia. Russia has become a notable market again, and there is clearly a great deal of potential left, assuming the right market conditions. The admission of several central European countries into the European Union over the next few years may drive a renewed interest in learning English, and may also improve the pricing regime.
Asia showed good growth for most ELT publishers last year, with South Korea doing well; but Japan is still flat and with a continuing demographic decline. Thailand is now clearly established as an important market. This leaves China as the