Million $ Questions

Can basketball rebound to mid-'90s stature? can the brown shoe be bucked? can running stay on track? will the fall '99 athletic footwear lineup provide enough excitement at over-floored, over-doored footwear retail? does anybody have the answers?
If you make or sell athletic footwear, there are few signs that indicate 1999 will be any better than '98. Out of control inventory situations are expected to carry forward throughout '99, creating more discounting opportunities at retail. The white shoe category continues to be impacted by the casual bent of Americans, who realize that khakis go better with brown leather trekkers than with a pair of cross trainers. Store expansions are still being planned by many specialty chains looking to maintain or grow market share with total athletic footwear doors slated to increase by 15 percent this year. And, Asian economic woes have not shown any great signs of improvement over the past few months-impacting both the import and export markets for athletic footwear.
All the signs are there for the footwear category to remain untied.
"Industry participants and pundits appear to be nearly unanimous in thinking that neither the white- or brown-shoe market will turn in early 1999," says Marcia Aaron of BT Alex Brown. "We believe that a turn in the white-shoe market could be longer in coming than a turn in the brown-shoe market given systemic issues with the market including the dramatic rise in industry square footage. The [health of the] brown shoe market will depend somewhat on how quickly inventory cleans up."
Clearly, footwear was not an area people were looking to invest in last year, as shoe stocks-collectively-tumbled 20 percent in '98; athletic retail stocks plunged 45.6 percent while the S&P climbed 26.7 percent for the year.
And, while there have been some silver linings for footwear over the past year-such as the emergence of running-few other segments have enjoyed the growth that was standard only three years ago in categories like basketball and cross training. A recent Runners World report provided a ray of hope for running shoe retailers, noting that more younger runners-enjoying the individualism of running-are taking to the activity, providing for growth at both ends of the demographic spectrum. That's a statistic that other categories, such as basketball, can not claim.
If there is an "X" factor for '99, however, it is the basketball category. With pro basketball back in action this month, shoe stocks have benefited, climbing nearly 8 percent the day after the NBA settlement was announced. Marketing executives can now plan on fall promotions with a league intact, and an exciting spring playoff could also help spur sales sooner than expected. The million-dollar question remains-will fans regroup for the span of the shortened season and how will that reaction effect shoe sales?
Aaron maintains the industry will continue to fight uphill battles until the issue of retail square footage is resolved. It "will require one or more companies to experience tremendous pain before there is a resolution," she says.
COMPANY: And 1
NAME: Gotcha
CATEGORY: Basketball
WHOLESALE: $41.25
RETAIL: $74.99
DELIVERY DATE: 7/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Strike or no strike, we gotta have the Gotcha."
COMPANY: Avia
NAME: 2051
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $38.50
RETAIL: $70
DELIVERY DATE: 4/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Not sure if we'll take it on. But a nice shoe for the price."
COMPANY: Converse
NAME: HTR Jack
CATEGORY: Athletic Originals
WHOLESALE: $25
RETAIL: $50
DELIVERY DATE: 7/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Antitech is hot. Basketball has been tough for Converse. This shoe should walk off the shelf."
COMPANY: New Balance
NAME: M1000
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $60
RETAIL: $140
DELIVERY DATE: 7/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Everything from New Balance sells. But at $140 there is a limited market for this shoe."
COMPANY: Saucony
NAME: Shadow
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $46.75
RETAIL: $84.95
DELIVERY DATE: 6/15/99
BUYER BUZZ: "A solid performance running shoe at a great price."
COMPANY: Asics
NAME: Gel Nimbus
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $60.50
RETAIL: $110
DELIVERY DATE: 6/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Another good shoe competing in what has become a very busy segment of the wall."
COMPANY: Polo/Ralph Lauren
NAME: RLX Fast
CATEGORY: Lightweight Trainer
WHOLESALE: $65
RETAIL: $130
DELIVERY DATE: 2/15/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Might be priced out of the market."
COMPANY: Brooks
NAME: Gila
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $52.25
RETAIL: $94.95
DELIVERY DATE: 7/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "For core runners only. But the core keeps growing, and so does Brooks."
COMPANY: Puma
NAME: Cell XC
CATEGORY: Trail Running
WHOLESALE: $38.50
RETAIL: $70
DELIVERY DATE: 6/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "The adidas of 1999."
COMPANY: Reebok
NAME: Fusion DMX
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $63.25
RETAIL: $114.99
DELIVERY DATE: 8/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "DMX has been one of the few successful surprises. Anything with that technology should move."
COMPANY: Nike
NAME: Jumbrific
CATEGORY: Basketball
WHOLESALE: $45.90
RETAIL: $85
DELIVERY DATE: 6/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "If basketball comes back, could be jumbo sales here."
COMPANY: Vans
NAME: Platinum
CATEGORY: Trekking
WHOLESALE: $37.50
RETAIL: $75
DELIVERY DATE: 5/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "A trekking shoe from Vans...I like it."
COMPANY: Mizuno
NAME: Wave Rider
CATEGORY: Running
WHOLESALE: $55
RETAIL: $99.99
DELIVERY DATE: 7/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Mizuno faces a lot of competition in its core footwear category-running."
COMPANY: Skechers
NAME: Sport S-tremes Triad
CATEGORY: Urban Jogger
WHOLESALE: $30
RETAIL: $60
DELIVERY DATE: 7/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Sure, why not?"
COMPANY: Ryka
NAME: Evolution ETS
CATEGORY: Aerobic
WHOLESALE: $44
RETAIL: $80
DELIVERY DATE: 8/1/99
BUYER BUZZ: "Great alternative for those who want something other than Nike and Reebok."