Will Someone 'Crash' 'Brokeback''s Ball? Critics Make Oscar Predictions

In case your big-screen TV is on the fritz or you are taking a red-eye to Europe on Sunday night, do not fret, film critics across the country have already let you know who will be winning the key Oscar races.

The unexpected dogfight, in their view, will pit early favorite Brokeback Mountain against Crash. Roger Ebert from the Chicago Sun-Times and David Carr of the New York Times (author of the "Carpetbagger" blog) now favor Crash, but a panel of Los Angeles Times critics still make Brokeback the 4-5 favorite (with the odds for Crash at 2-1 and Goodnight, and Good Luck at 3-1). Tom O'Neil at the Gold Derby site is wavering but still feels Brokeback has the edge. So do the two main Associated Press film critics.

Conventional wisdom continues to hold, by and large, on the acting prizes with Philip Seymour Hoffman and Reese Witherspoon well ahead for lead roles. But in a surprise, the L.A. Times panel now puts Paul Giamatti in the lead for supporting actor, with "even" odds, topping George Clooney, who is at 2-1. Meanwhile, AP and Gold Derby both go for Felicity Huffman over Witherspoon.

The L.A. Times panel gives favorite Rachel Weisz only a slim lead over Michelle Williams of Brokeback. So does the Gold Derby site. The two AP writers both pick Williams.

Ebert picks one upset: Amy Adams for best supporting actress.

Many other critics go down the line with Hoffman-Witherspoon-Weisz-Clooney.

Tsotsi holds an edge over Paradise Now for best foreign film, but Carr picks Enron to upset March of the Penguins for best documentary. Ebert picks Penguins.

Even those who expected Crash to drive away with best picture still thing Ang Lee of Brokeback will take best director.

David Carr joked (we think) that he made his picks after entering data into computers "along with performing a ritual that involved goat's blood and chicken feathers."

In case you are wondering, Ann Coulter picks Brokeback on grounds that Hollywood now feels it has done enough for blacks, but still needs to cozy up with gays.