The low-carb conundrum

The latest diet phenomenon is the low-carb craze. Unlike other diet fads, it may have reached critical mass, changing what foods Americans buy and altering the landscape where those purchases are made. Produce growers, distributors, and retailers wonder how this trend will affect their businesses. What commodities will be favored? How should a marketing program be designed to influence an as-yet ill-defined group? What are the consequences if losing weight becomes entrenched in a segment of our society? How will the competition adapt? Will restaurants scoop food dollars from the retailer's trough? Until now, these questions have simply begotten more questions. Market forces, however, are beginning to lift the veil and provide answers.

Consumer eating habits have led to a vast number of overweight people. Two-thirds of Americans are obese, many of them children. A quarter of Americans have the metabolic syndrome, the constellation of high blood pressure, truncal obesity (apple shape), high triglycerides, low HDL, and high blood sugar. Obesity and the metabolic syndrome are red flags for the onset of diabetes. The need to educate American consumers has never been so urgent. These stark facts have resulted in a wave of new research into the benefits and potential risks of low-carb diets.

Answers to come

Medicine already has an official diet, the low-fat, high-fiber Food Guide Pyramid. Long-term studies demonstrate that the combination of a low-fat diet and exercise helps diabetics maintain weight loss. On the other hand, researchers have only recently begun to study short-term low-carb diets.

Many questions are still unanswered. The biggest one is whether health benefits accrue based on the type of diet, or simply the number of calories. The proportion of saturated fat in low-carb diets needs clarification, along with the de-emphasis on produce and fibrous complex carbohydrates. The medical community is hopeful that forthcoming long-term investigations will provide answers. In the meantime doctors recommend that people use the diet they feel most comfortable with, avoid "crash" weight-loss programs, and pay close attention to total daily calories in whatever form they're eaten.

Dietary or diabetic foods have had an established, unremarkable niche for many years. These items fall within many categories of supermarket products, making it almost impossible to track their overall annual sales. The question is, how much can this niche expand? Of the obese Americans noted above, close to half fail any diet. Those remaining are the approximately 40 percent of today's consumers potentially most motivated to alter their buying habits. There's a "push-pull" mechanism in play here: Consumers are pushed into the store by outside information and advice to eat better, but in the store they must be pulled toward the new commodity or product display. Retailers' history with diets shows that the majority of this group will ignore the push. Targeting those who do seek solutions is the marketing challenge. The stakes are high: Millions of dollars in profits may swing from one group of food purveyors to another whose marketing strategy keeps pace with consumers' expanding knowledge base.

Meal planning is the key to all diets. Each dieter must plan a daunting 21 meals weekly. Retailers who help package mandated foods into meals will win dieters' loyalties. Dieters will demand the same convenience from new products that they get from conventional meals, and they'll listen closely to grocers who present whole-meal solutions to their needs. However, fast-food and sit-down restaurants have the opportunity to take sales from grocers by successfully marketing a healthier meal image.

Supermarkets have heretofore been atop the healthy pedestal, if only because they offer produce. But the healthier image is now turned on its head. Fast food, or at least the burger, has a place in meal planning. It's easy to envision restaurants solving the healthy-meal dilemma for some consumers, and each meal sold is market share taken from retailers. Furthermore, when it comes to convenience, restaurants and fast-food outlets have an advantage over retailers. A fast, guilt-free meal is consumer heaven.

Overall consumption of traditionally healthy foods could suffer from the emphasis on low carbs. Produce has taken its knocks from Atkins and other diets, but even low-carb regimens reintroduce fruits, vegetables, and whole grains after the first few weeks. Fruits and vegetables have proven nutrient values and health benefits. Medically the question is really how other dietary components are arranged around them. The glycemic index topic may sway some consumers from bananas, potatoes, and carrots, while sparking interest in yams and leafy greens. In the aggregate these pressures should balance each other such that produce maintains its current share of the grocery cart. Growth of market share is another issue. Retailers should enjoy the current turmoil over the role of produce, since it heightens awareness while providing differentiating tools to merchandise an ever-greater variety of produce items. Although the potassium in bananas and potatoes is still important, isn't it a great time to promote sweet potatoes?

It's by no means certain that dieting will attract more Americans than in the past. Nonetheless, a significant calorie-counting consumer segment may evolve. These shoppers will redefine convenience and quality for the food industry. Stores offering meal solutions will become a little more like restaurants, while restaurants will hone their product lines to include fresh perishables. Those providing the most value will win repeat business and profits. Five or 10 years from now, it will be clear what market segment has won. Until then we're in for a fascinating ride.