A world grown old: finding a place for antedeluvians in the new world order. (Perspectives).

The results of the 2001 British census reveal that for the first time since the inaugural British census two centuries ago, the number of people over 60 now exceeds the number under 16. More than one million people are over 85--five times as many as there were 50 years ago. Many developed countries

seem incapable of replenishing their own populations. A variety of potential causes have been advanced, ranging from the hedonistic temperament of the age to the high cost of having children. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that between US$121,000 and US$241,000 are required to raise a child, and a baby born today will require even greater expenditures. By the age of 17, these infants will have consumed between US$171,000 and US$340,000, leading some to view children as expensive luxuries.

The consequences for the developed world are alarming. If present trends continue, Germany's falling birth rate will leave half of the German population over 60 by 2050. The population would fall by between 16 and 23 million, from its present level of 82 million. Related concerns have been expressed about the future of Japan, Italy, and Spain. Similarly, Britain will have a modest 34 percent of its population over 60 by 2050, while the United States will have about 30 percent.

Immigration and Employment

The implications for medical, social welfare, and healthcare systems are grave. Some suggest that the retirement age will have to rise to 70 or even 72 in order to maintain current levels of health and social welfare benefits. To avoid this crisis, Europe will need at least an estimated 100 million immigrants in the next 25 years.

Such immigrants would come mainly from the countries in Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. The Sussmuth Commission in Germany recently recommended radical changes in immigration policy; including allowing up to 50,000 foreign workers into the country, despite the fact that nine percent of the population is already born abroad. In contrast, the figure in the United States stands at about 11 percent. Britain, too, has recently begun a fast-track system of processing immigrants who possess skills that can satisfy the country's labor shortage. Immigrants with skills in information technology, medicine, tourism, and catering are especially in demand. Even unskilled laborers go through the fast-track system on their way to seasonal fruit- and vegetable-picking jobs.

Concern over how immigrants will be absorbed by "graying" societies has caused commentators to neglect the draining effect on the countries that will provide the West's highly qualified immigrants. Indeed, all the rhetoric about the developing world assumes that the principal problem is population growth and control. It seems that ancient battles continue even when they have been overtaken by more urgent realities. Instead of fixating on the population explosion in developing countries, developed states should address more pressing questions concerning the demographic composition of that population, which, as it stabilizes, will create an imbalance in the age structure of the global population as a whole. China's one-child policy will produce 400 million people over 60 within a generation, while India expects its over 60 population to grow from 77 million today to 177 million within 20 years. The West grew rich before it grew old, but it seems that the South is destined to grow old first. What that implies f or its chances of growing rich later has yet to be explored.

Little thought has been given to how the growing age imbalance is to be addressed, especially in the developing world. It is scarcely to be expected that a society will make provisions for the day when almost half of its members will be of retirement age.

The Elderly Poor

The former head of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Aging and Life Course Program, Alexandre Kache, recently pointed out the inability of the developing world to accommodate the demographic shift toward a disproportionately large elderly class: "For the developing countries, pensions, in the sense of the developed world, are pie in the sky. They do not exist, and will not exist." In spite of this, Kache foresees a future in which traditional family networks of social security will also have decayed. He argues, "The extended family is an illusion, because as soon as you start the process of modernization, the structure of traditional societies becomes very fragile."

For poor societies, globalization means the forfeiture of one form of social protection, namely the extended family, with little chance of any compensating substitute. Even the pretense that "development" means the more or less serene progression from backwardness to Western-style affluence with safety nets has been abandoned. Developing countries are the site of a vast social and economic experiment, the long-term effects of which should be viewed with great apprehension.

The response of the 'WHO to this bleak outlook is to advocate the "economic insertion" of the elderly poor, so that they may retain their independence and not become a burden to families under the impact of industrialization. The elderly must cease to expect support from their families and instead rely upon their own efforts for survival. In other words, they will have all the social problems they would face in the West but not the West's social welfare safety net to enable them to become self-sufficient. This represents the worst of both worlds. The leaders of developing countries should consider these dangers, which are often more meaningful than the optimistic words of development's proponents.

The prospect that the elderly of the developing world may have to continue to work is frightening. Since a majority of the poor started to work as children, it seems wrong to force them to prolong their employment beyond half or three-quarters of a century of hard labor. Recently, the crusade against child labor was the humanitarian cry of the hour. Will there be passionate campaigns against geriatric labor in the not-so-distant future? Will septuagenarians replace the young as rickshaw-pullers, technological production line workers, sewing machine operators, cooks, and servants?

The graying of the world, both North and South, would not be a catastrophe if it were met with imagination and compassion. For one thing, the elderly are not a homogeneous group. A recent survey by the charity HelpAge Ghana revealed that in the indigenous languages of Ghana, there are separate terms for the "recently old," the "older person," and the "very old person." Significantly, these categories relate to the ability to work; they recognize the natural progression of aging, which is not a mechanistic chronology, but depends on health, strength, and past experience, much of which is a matter of chance. Those who maintain vigor and energy constitute a reservoir of skills that could be used for the benefit of their society--a truth which has yet to be fully appreciated by the developed world.

Reverencing Age

One of the curious accompaniments of development, globalization, economic progress, and modernization is a tendency to disparage the elderly. Of course, every generation laments the young's lack of consideration for their elders, but new social forces are intensifying the impatience of youth and the discontinuities between the generations.

In the South, traditional societies are rapidly disintegrating under the impact of modernization. It is a common complaint that there has been a loss of respect for seniors, although the truth is far more complex. In traditional cultures, particularly poor ones, the old were considered survivors. Their stories of hardship had practical value for a new generation, who saw in the elderly their own uncertain future. With increased demographic mobility, however, provincial life has been greatly affected. The young have become the leaders, and the elderly are left powerless.

It is a tragic irony that the great growth in the numbers of aged should occur at such a time. Until today, the old have represented only a small proportion of the people in any society, and the relative scarcity of such survivors endowed them with the advantage of experience. Because life expectancy was still only 40 years in India at the time of independence, seniors were rare. It is, perhaps, not by chance that the decay of the power and authority of the old should have happened at the very moment when they became so numerous.

Sweeping social, cultural, and moral changes come in the wake of economic developments and cannot easily be separated from them. In the developed world, not only has the value placed on the experience of the elderly been degraded, but their skills and abilities have also been rejected. Rather than move toward the prolongation of working life, many societies have chosen to disemploy people over 50, who are accused of being too old-fashioned and inflexible to compete m the global market. In developing countries, the great reservoirs of practice and custom lie neglected. Accumulated cultural wisdom is being discounted as the new generation develops expectations that break from the poverty and frugality of their parents and grandparents. Modernization tends to dissolve customary relationships, tear the fabric of kinship, and corrode the chains of human connectedness.

The Future of the Aged

Even the economic resources of the developed world are no longer secure. The power of the graying dollar, yen, or euro is unlikely to be sustained. Indeed, it may be that the earlier generation of elderly will come to be seen as having lived in a golden time for seniors. As the pensioners of Enron and other spectacular corporate failures have discovered, the aged must make their own private accommodation, not only with the existential certainties of sickness and aging, but also with the global system of wealth and power as they are thrown into the increasingly threadbare monetary safety nets that have protected them until now.

Worldwide, one million people turn 60 each month. In 2001, 10 percent of the world's population was already 60; by 2050, this number will reach 20 percent, by 2150, possibly 33 percent. The fastest growth will be in developing countries--already home to 58 percent of the world's elderly--where this proportion will rise to 70 percent within 10 years. The majority, 55 percent, of older persons are women; among the over 80 demographic, this figure rises to 65 percent. Although the projected figures may be contested, the trend is clear: in the last half of the 20th century, 20 years were added to the average lifespan, raising global life expectancy to 66 years.

The fate of the elderly exemplifies the ambiguous advantages of economic progress: although such progress increases the wealth of a state, it also yields the externality of a larger elderly class unable to contribute to the new goals of a fast-paced society. The UN Second World Assembly on Aging in Madrid, Spain, was certainly well-intentioned to issue programs and resolutions in 2002, but the great sweep of globalization will ultimately determine the destiny of the elderly. As always, the poor are left to resolve the contradictions. If they choose to have children to look after them in sickness and infirmity, the resulting population explosion will threaten to overwhelm the planet. If they fail to have enough children, the aged will face mass destitution.

Of course, the countries of the South also have an abundance of impoverished, hungry, and jobless youth--in India there are tens of millions of unemployed graduates whose energy and exuberance are unwanted by the global market. It is a meager consolation for them that they should wait 30 or 40 years before being set to work to redeem their longevity. Many members of the new generation are left with the knowledge that both their youth and their age will be seen as a burden.

[GRAPH OMITTED]

AGE AND DEVELOPMENT

The Developing World


Developing Countries: Life
Expectancy (in years)

Costa Rica                   77
Cuba                         76
Jamaica                      75
Argentina                    73
Sri Lanka                    73
Malaysia                     72
Republic of Korea            72

2020 Projected Developing
Countries with Largest
Elderly Populations (in
millions)

China                       230
India                       142
Indonesia                    29
Brazil                       27

As the world's elderly population increases, life expectancy in
developing countries also increases (upper left). In 2020, it is
projected that five of the 10 countries with the highest elderly
populations will be in the developing world (lower left). The graph on
the right shows the regions with the largest percentage of citizens over
60 years of age.

World Health Organization

JEREMY SEABROOK is a writer and freelance journalist. He is author of Children of Other Worlds and Travels In the Skin Trade.