Nursing Crisis Is Foreseen.

Demand for nurses will increase as the supply diminishes over the next 20 years, creating a caregiving crisis of unprecedented proportions, warn the American Health Care Association (AHCA) and other U.S. health experts testifying before Congress recently.

The baby-boom generation is

aging at the same time as the number of new nurses is decreasing in long-term care, a field especially critical for the elderly. The result, according to an AHCA study, is that "there will not be a sufficient workforce avail able in the coming years to maintain even the current staffing levels in skilled nursing facilities."

As the number of patients grows, the number of nurses must increase to keep patient-to-staff ratios low (and quality of care high). According to the report, nursing homes will need 66% more registered nurses between 1991 and 2020, 69% more nursing aides, and 71.5% more licensed practical nurses. As demand for better care grows more vocal, calls for even lower patient/staff ratios will increase the costs of filling positions with a dwindling supply pool.

One reason for that dwindling supply is that nurses, too, are growing older: The average age of registered nurses rose from 44.3 in 1996 to 45.2 in 2000, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. Today's nurses will begin retiring in less than a decade, and many will have already changed careers before retiring. Another factor is that fewer nurses under age 30 are entering the profession, and fewer still are attaining advanced training. Opportunities in other professions such as law and business have lured many young women away from a job that makes them "feel undervalued, over worked, and underpaid," according to Senator Barbara Mikulski (Democrat Maryland).

Potential solutions to the problem could include government grants for nursing scholarships and training programs.

"Finding, training, and keeping qualified nursing staff is one of the most important challenges facing America's long-term-care providers," says Charles H. Roadman, M.D., president and CEO of AHCA. "Just as the nation has made finding, training, and retaining police officers and teachers a national priority, we strongly urge President Bush and the U.S. Congress to elevate nursing staff to a similar status. Failure to do so will have detrimental consequences to future retirees and to the very future of long-term care in America."

Sources: American Health Care Association, 1201 L Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005. Telephone 1-202-842-4444; Web site www.ahca.org.

"Shrinking Nursing Work Force Expected in America's Hospitals" by Anjetta McQueen, Associated Press (February 14, 2001).