The future of energy.

Changing our fuel sources requires changing our values, but it's happened before and may already be happening again.

Since the first Earth Day in 1970, we have made important moves to clean up energy production and use: Drilling for oil and gas and mining coal are now done less harmfully,

The numbers tell the story: In 1971, the world consumed 4,722 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE). Twenty years later, consumption was up to 7,074 MTOE, and it still was almost all fossil fuels - 97% in 1971 and 90% in 1991. The 7% drop was captured by nuclear power By 2010, consumption is projected to rise to 11,500 MTOE, with fossil fuels still accounting for 90% of that demand. Our energy choices simply do not reflect our concerns about the environment and sustainability of our supply.

Concerns about Fossil Fuel Supply

Many people are worried that we are going to run out of fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas. Running out of oil has been a worry ever since people first began to use it in large quantities. In 1908, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) predicted that total future supply of U.S. oil would not exceed 23 billion barrels. In 1914, the U.S. Bureau of Mines was even more pessimistic, putting the limit at 5.7 billion barrels. In 1920, the USGS proclaimed the peak in U.S. oil production was almost reached. In 1939, the Department of Interior declared that there was only 13 years of production remaining. In 1977, President Jimmy Carter said, "We are now running out of oil." Despite these gloomy projections, the United States has produced over 200 billion barrels of oil since the early 1900s.

Belying the forecasts, the oil industry keeps on finding new producing regions, developing more effective methods of finding oil fields, reducing costs, and coming up with innovative technology that lets them produce oil in places they could not even look before, such as very deep water.

The future for oil supplies looks promising as well. [Editor's note: For another viewpoint, see "Get Ready for Another Oil Shock!" by L.E Ivanhoe in the January-February 1997 issue of THE FUTURIST.] Saudi Arabia has just begun to explore in older, deeper rocks that produce oil in surrounding countries. Iraq has the potential to surpass Saudi Arabia in oil reserves once exploration and development work is restarted there. Khazakstan and Eastern Siberia are relatively unexplored potential oil-producing giants. Deep water technology is opening up large areas of the Gulf of Mexico for exploration and production. And some recent testing suggests there are oil deposits in the abyssal depths of the Atlantic Ocean. Then we have immense tar sand deposits in Canada and very heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela, both of which contain hundreds of billions of barrels of oil.

The industry is also improving the recovery rates from established fields. On average, producers get only 35% of the oil out of a reservoir before they abandon it. The remaining oil is either too difficult or too expensive to recover. But one producer in the North Sea now claims to be able to recover 40% and expects to recover up to 60% in a few years.

Natural gas resources have also been subjected to pessimistic forecasts, partly because, in the United States, government-controlled prices were so low that few companies were willing to explore for gas fields. Today, the conservative estimate is that there is at least a 100-year supply of standard gas resources in North America. In addition, there are large deposits of gas hydrates that the industry doesn't yet know how to use economically.

Internationally, the natural gas supply is even larger. Europe hasn't used much natural gas because it had an infrastructure in place to mine, transport, and burn coal and did not see any advantage to going to the expense of building a gas pipeline system. Southeast Asia has only recently begun to tap and use its gas resources.

Coal will last much longer than either oil or natural gas. Known deposits of coal are huge, and there is a massive infrastructure in place to mine, deliver, and burn it. And it is the cheapest of fossil fuels.

So sustainability of supply is not an issue today. Does that mean we will continue to rely on fossil fuels for the next 30 years or longer? Unless we change our values, the answer is yes.

Changing Values and Changing Energy Sources

Before discussing that needed change in values, I want to make a historic connection between changes in value systems and shifts in energy use. The underlying motivation for technological development has primarily been to gain wealth and power - that is not to disparage the thrill of discovery or of innovation for its own sake, but to acknowledge its secondary importance.

Wood was the primary source of energy for humans up to 1880, when coal gained first place. Wind, water, and solar power were also used. What happened to trigger the switch from wood to coal to oil as our main source of energy? And why did wind and water power, which for centuries had ranked right behind wood as major sources of energy, fall so far behind?

The transition from wood to coal to oil began because of shifts in the economy and two shifts in thinking that occurred in late Medieval Europe: First, people who were engaged in manufacturing, trade, and creating innovative technology were given a higher human value than those who could fight. Second, it became acceptable for the elite to become involved in devising practical applications from scientific knowledge.

The elite of the age were heavily focused on wealth and power. But people at all levels began to look with less favor on fighting, raiding, and plundering as the primary means of acquiring and enhancing wealth and power. Grain-grinding water mills became important profit centers as innovations enabled them to saw logs, make paper and gunpowder, full woolens, and perform other manufacturing tasks. People who could make machines, run mills, and engage in expanded trading were bringing in more profits than the lords could gain from maintaining a retinue of knights. The other values change that occurred about the same time was that highly educated philosophers and scientists began to get involved in developing practical mechanical devices. Up to that time, such activity was considered beneath their dignity.

Change began in earnest following these economic and value shifts. Better manufacturing processes required better machines, which needed more efficient fuels. Coke made from coal was a more efficient fuel for smelting iron than was charcoal made from wood, but the surface outcrops of coal soon became exhausted. Mines had to go deeper, and that made flooding a problem. Steam engines, which also burned coal, were developed to pump water out of mines.

The improved steam engines suggested steam-powered locomotives on iron rails as a solution to roads that were being constantly torn up from transporting coal. Railroading was born, pushing coal demand higher still, and by 1880, coal became the most used energy source. Water power and wind power for mills gave way to coal-fired steam engines that were more efficient, provided for greater flexibility of use, and produced greater profits. Sailing ships yielded to coal-fired steam ships for the same reasons.

Steam-powered road carriages using external combustion engines were in use even before railroading began, but they required a separate furnace and boiler, making them too heavy and bulky for practical road use. Internal combustion was seen as the solution. Gunpowder, hydrogen explosions, and benzene made from coal tar were tried without much success, but gasoline distilled from oil made internal combustion a commercial success. This stimulated the development of the automobile industry, a major consumer of oil.

Better cars required better engines, which needed higher performance fuels. The performance spiral went up until it was possible to build a gasoline engine powerful enough but still light and small enough to power an airplane. Air travel was born, and by 1950 oil passed coal as the most used energy source in the world.

Energy Choices Reflect Our Values

The prime motivation behind energy choice has been to increase wealth and power. We continue to rely on fossil fuels today because they are cheap, efficient, and bring the most profit to their developers. Today, 64% of the world's electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels, mostly coal; 18% comes from hydroelectric dams, 17% from nuclear power plants, and less than 1% from all other sources, including geothermal, biomass, wind, and solar. For the next couple of decades, the outlook of the International Energy Agency is for most expansion of electrical generating capacity to be met by fossil fuels. Nuclear power use is projected to decline and to be replaced by fossil fuel plants. Hydropower and the other renewable sources are projected to increase only slightly.

Wind turbines, photovoltaic arrays on Earth and in space, solar thermal plants, ocean thermal generators, biomass, and tidal power are renewable sources of energy that we know will work. But we use these renewable sources only in special situations, because fossil fuels are cheaper when environmental and health costs are ignored.

It will take a major shift in thinking today to move us away from fossil fuels and into renewable resources. It will be a shift away from placing our highest human value on becoming rich and powerful to giving our highest esteem to those who improve how we relate to each other That shift has begun and needs nurturing.

Signs of Change

The numerous human rights movements indicate that we are beginning to value people more highly than we have in the past. As these movements gain momentum, people as people will move higher on the priority list, while the personal accumulation of wealth and power will decline.

Another promising development is the rise of ISO 14000, a set of internationally accepted standards for environmental management systems being promoted by the International Organization for Standardization in Geneva. The drive to adopt ISO 14000 standards comes from consumers, not from government command-and-control regulations. Retailers are beginning to tell their suppliers, who are in turn telling their suppliers, that they will buy only from those who manufacture or produce in an environmentally sound manner. ISO 14000 certification assures all customers that the company not only is operating cleanly, but is committed to continual improvement of its environmental performance. The shift in thinking here is that we are beginning to accept responsibility for our part in the environmental impact of a product through its entire life cycle.

With these changes in our value system, our choices of energy sources will no longer be based solely on their ability to produce immediate profits for someone, but rather on how well they fit into the overall quality of life for everyone - employees, customers, and neighbors. But until we make such changes, the world will continue to rely most heavily on fossil fuels for its future energy needs.

About the Author

Robert W. Fisher, an energy analyst, is president of The Consortium International, Apartado Postal #1, Marfil, Guanajuato C.P. 36251, Mexico. E-mail consintl@redes.int.com.mx.

The International Energy Agency is located at 9, rue de la Federation, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. Telephone 33-1 4057 6554; fax 33-1 4057 6559; e-mail info@iea.org.