The future as a learning process.

We should not fear the future, but learn from it, says a British futurist.

Because the future does not exist, it is unrealistic to view it as an object, a thing to be discovered. A much more realistic approach is to think of the future as evolving and to treat it as a learning process.

To learn from the future, we need to cultivate new attitudes both about the future and about learning. Here are a few proposed attitude shifts to help us "learn the future."

* Recognize the value of diversity. We need to become more open to different perspectives. People's views of the future are based on varying values. Accepting the existence of differences and attempting to work through conflicts, we encourage debate and stimulate new ideas.

Diversity is valuable. Cultural diversity in human affairs is likely to be as important to the survival of humanity as biodiversity is to the ecosystem. For example, the loss of a local language due to economic globalization or to political persecution not only results in the loss of cultural diversity, but contributes to humanity's fastest-growing disease - anomie. Without the strength of their language and culture, groups may become alienated from society and more prone to despair, alcoholism, drug abuse, and suicide. In other words, their future is lost, as is the future that we might have learned from them. But we need to learn to live together in our differences.

* Remain flexible. The future is complex and uncertain, so it is necessary to remain flexible and be prepared to reassess our plans as circumstances change. One of the most difficult features of this approach is knowing when to be flexible and when to hold established positions. Traditional ways of doing things are powerful and valuable forces that provide a focus for human interaction, but we should not retain them beyond their usefulness.

Had we maintained all of our traditional environments, we would not have developed many things we now value. For example, if citizen groups had been as powerful in the nineteenth century as they are now, perhaps none of the Victorian buildings we now wish to preserve would ever have been built. Changing circumstances call for changing responses.

* Recognize that mistakes will be made. Responding to change and uncertainty requires a willingness to accept the fact that not all of the decisions and actions we make will be correct. A culture that automatically punishes mistakes discourages the kind of innovation we need to deal with new situations. In fact, mistakes and imperfections can lead to better problem solving, which can keep systems moving forward.

Unfortunately, most organizations regard mistakes as something they cannot afford to make. But not allowing mistakes to happen - and letting us learn from them - is probably costlier in the long term. When a problem is "solved," we tend to forget about it, while mistakes and new problems require our continuing watchfulness. This watchfulness is vital to learning the future. The future is a multi-player game with a complex system of interactions. The steps we take may not have the effects we anticipate, especially if other players respond in unexpected ways.

* Give up control. One of the institutions finding it hard to adapt itself to this feature of our future is the nation-state. Accustomed to a special degree of control over their people, governments are finding it difficult to accept that the best way of retaining control may be to give some of it up. Paradoxically, this may involve some power being surrendered to larger groupings, such as the European Union or the United Nations, and some to smaller units of more-local control, since some issues are dealt with more effectively at that scale.

Does accepting change and being flexible mean we cannot or should not plan for the future? Far from it. Without visions of the kind of future we want, we have no basis for making decisions, because anything will do. We will need a strategy, but one that is itself structured as a learning process: Plans need to be revised as we go along. Decisions should be seen as conscious experiments rather than set solutions. Feedback loops built into the planning process enable continuous improvement in the light of experience.

Regarding the future as dynamic and uncertain can be threatening, but it can also be exciting and liberating. There is always something new to be created or discovered. Learning is less a matter of acquiring a fixed body of knowledge and more a search for the new; it is the development of capabilities to create our future, rather than foresee what is predetermined.

About the Author

Graham H. May is the principal lecturer for futures research at Leeds Metropolitan University. His book, The Future Is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing, and Creating the Future (1996), is published by Praeger/Adamantine as part of their "Studies on the 21st Century" series. His address is Leeds School of the Environment, Brunswick Building, Leeds LS2 8BU, England. Telephone (44) 113 283 2600; fax (44) 113 283 3190; e-mail g.may@lmu.ac.uk.