Women of the future: alternative scenarios.

Will women take their newfound power and separate themselves from men? Or will biological technologies allow men and women to become more alike? A futures researcher and political scientist examines five potential scenarios for women.

Women's status in Western societies has undergone dramatic changes

The historical subordination of women is nearing the threshold of collapse. Social, cultural, political, and technological changes are converging to eat away the structures of male dominance. Over the next millennium, women (and men) are likely to undergo enormous changes, psychologically, culturally, biologically, physiologically, and even genetically. Thus, women in the future may be considerably different from what they have been in the past.

This author is the wrong gender to describe women's experience, but he has tried to overcome that handicap by studying what women have said and written about their experience and by looking through more objective evidence, such as statistical data.

While women have succeeded in making some inroads into decision-making positions in business and government, they are still expected to perform traditional functions of maintaining a household, taking care of the kids, fixing the meals, and being a good spouse. Not an easy chore. And while the image of superwoman has been featured in both advertising and women's magazines, the image has, of late, come under fire for being just what it is - superhuman - and not a normal state of activity.

To understand the potential transformational power of the women's movement, we must also understand the growing social and cultural power that comes from the least understood and most maligned part of the women's movement: the radical feminist movement.

Radical feminism was always a strand of the women's movement, even as far back as the nineteenth century, but the radical feminists parted ways with the political feminists sometime during the late 1960s and early 1970s and have continued to follow a different path. Where political feminists want to be equally represented along with men, radical feminists want a totally different power structure. Where political feminists want policies and laws that assist women and families, the radicals want a totally new spiritual paradigm.

Beginning with the premise that the personal is political, radical feminists argue that to adopt traditional political methods would be to play into the hands of male institutions. They seek instead to recreate their own world, their own reality, and give energy to new, female-centered institutions rather than the old male ones. One segment of radical feminists has rediscovered or recreated the pagan practices of the pre-Christian world. They now actively promote Great Goddess worship and paganism or female-oriented aspects of mainstream religions. Mythic remnants of pagan mother-goddess worship can be found in nearly all patriarchal religions: Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. The importance of the Virgin Mary in Catholicism is a classic example.

This trend in women's culture is growing and not easily swept under the rug. While it is not as visible as a female nominee to the Supreme Court, the cultural implications have the potential to be seen in nearly every aspect of life over the next century or two.

Trends Suggest Potential Scenarios

There are at least three mini-trends stemming from radical feminism that could result in dramatically different futures for women - and men. One of those has been called lesbian separatism, a tendency for some women to reject men entirely as some sort of evolutionary mistake. This movement has less to do with sexual orientation than with the acceptance of an entirely different paradigm, one that rejects male-influenced values.

At virtually the opposite end of the spectrum is male hatred of women, or misogyny, manifesting itself as a widespread male backlash against women. There are already symptoms of this throughout society, and the potential for a reversal in the status of women is a growing possibility. The pressures on men are growing and thus the chances of male backlash may grow. Just as the anti-immigrant movement in Europe has been fueled by loosened immigration laws, so, too, may violence against women grow, if male-dominated society feels truly threatened.

A third mini-trend that has roots in radical feminism is the push toward a partnership model of relations between men and women rather than the dominance of either. While the partnership model might suggest a radical redefinition of gender roles and the division of labor in society - even the end of patriarchal religions as we know them - it argues against violence toward either gender and for the growth of healthy relationships between men and women.

One way to make some sense out of these sometimes converging and sometimes conflicting trends is to consider a range of alternative futures for women. These scenarios are suggested in some cases by women's images of the future and in other cases by dominant social, cultural, environmental, and technological trends. These scenarios are intended to show distinct images of how women's social status may evolve. The five scenarios described below are summarized in the chart appearing on page 37.

Scenario #1: Continued Patriarchy

Continued Patriarchy is similar to the "continued growth" or "business-as-usual" image of the future used in futures research. It is the dominant image of the future portrayed on television commercials, in popular magazines, and embodied in business, government, and cultural institutions. This type of future has been characterized as the "future most like the present, 'only more so,'" and championed by futurists such as the late Herman Kahn.

In this scenario, women continue to obtain their rights but at the cost of playing "supermom" and/or becoming more like men.

Women are increasingly accepted in the work force in industrialized countries, but are slow to achieve equal pay for equal work and to break the glass ceiling into management positions. Women in the developing world continue to be exploited and violated more than their sisters in industrialized countries.

The family model in this scenario is still that of the Industrial Age: a mother, father, and two or three children. Levels of spouse and child abuse remain high.

Scenario #2: High-Tech Androgyny

Society experiences a technological transformation that produces basic shifts in the relations between men and women and in most social structures. High-Tech Androgyny is a future of blurred gender roles with clear separation between sexual recreation and human procreation.

In this scenario, work is something one does because one is good at it or because it gives one personal satisfaction. Gender divisions of labor no longer exist. Leisure "work" allows all people to engage in whatever sport, artistic form, handicraft, hobby, or activity they wish. Politics is something women are more equitably involved in due to shifts in child rearing, domestic work, and work outside the home.

Children are "designed" from the best genetic material, gestated in either natural or artificial wombs, and raised in age-cohort groups by robot (and human) nannies. Children are also expected to experiment with sex before puberty. Rites of passage often include gender changes. Family roles are totally blurred or nonexistent. Gene and other molecular therapies have markedly increased human longevity.

Scenario #3: Separation

In this future, the insular lesbian movement has ascended, as pres-aged by the astounding growth of female heads of households in the United States. Many lesbians impregnate themselves, producing "baster babies." Many communities and space settlements are inhabited solely by women; other communities segregate men and women.

The assumption here in the Separation scenario is that men fail to mend their ways, so women decide to do without them. Whether sent to space "on vacation" or otherwise disposed of (perhaps through a genetic epidemic in which only men are victims), men are no longer a problem.

Futures of Women

Scenario        Highlights

Continued       Women continue to gain rights, but many are
Patriarchy      pressured into "supermom" roles. Women are
                increasingly accepted in the workplace but continue
                to struggle for equal pay and to break through
                "glass ceiling." Women tend to be under-represented
                in political arena. The nuclear family model is the
                ideal.

High-Tech       "Unisex R Us": High technology frees men and women
Androgyny       alike from most work, and a leisure society
emerges.
                Gender roles are blurred; sexual recreation is
                separated from procreation. Children are
genetically
                "designed" and reared by robotic nannies. Children
                are allowed to experiment with sex and change their
                genders before puberty.

Separation      Women form a separate society, doing without men
                both genetically and socially. Men are banned from
                some communities; some are sent to space colonies.
                Inter-generational families become the norm,
                consisting of sisters, daughters, mothers,
                grandmothers, and aunts. Feminist spirituality
                emerges in the form of goddess worship,
                neo-paganism, and witchcraft.

Male Backlash   In a hyper-patriarchy, men reclaim harsh dominance
                over women. Polygamy is the norm among the wealthy,
                and harems emerge as a family form. Female
                infanticide is common. Work is done by female
                slaves. Fundamentalist male-dominated religions
                reign supreme, and witch-burning becomes common.

Partnership     Neither males nor females dominate, but work
                together. Gender-based differences in labor become
                less pronounced, and women have full political and
                economic equality. Shared parenting exists in a
                variety of family forms, including extended,
                intergenerational groups.

Cloning and artificial insemination are the primary means of procreation in this future. Family structures are extended and intergenerational, including sisters, daughters, aunts, and donors as well as surrogate mothers, grandmothers, and great grandmothers. Families are headed by the oldest matriarchs.

Scenario #4: Backlash

In this future, men have had it with uppity women and put them "back in their place." This could occur after a major global ecological or economic catastrophe, such as depicted in Margaret Atwood's chilling backlash future, The Handmaid's Tale.

A Backlash scenario is suggested by some men's increasing frustration with the growing power of women, exemplified by the emergence of a men's movement. While much of the men's movement may be a reasonable exploration of men's traditional and evolving gender roles, there is also a clear misogynist element to it.

Other trends that suggest a re-invigorated hatred of women are the explosive growth of religious (patriarchal) fundamentalism, efforts to end affirmative action, and growing violence against women. Another trend that fits this scenario is the fact that in some countries amniocentesis results in up to 95% of all female fetuses being aborted.

In the Backlash scenario, men reclaim dominance over women, who are considered to be property. Slavery (of women) has returned. Women are expected to chop wood, carry water, and bear children, and they are no longer allowed to learn to read and write. Polygamy becomes common, especially for the wealthy. The number of wives is a sign of wealth. Male children are preferred, and female infanticide is common.

Scenario #5: Partnership

In the Partnership scenario, the basic biological differences between the genders are maintained, but women share power with men equally.

Gender differences are respected, but women and men are treated equally in all spheres of life. Women have extensive involvement, at all levels, equitably with men in the public sphere.

In this scenario, there are fewer gender-based divisions of labor, and parenting is a shared responsibility. Family structures are extended and intergenerational, with tolerance for a wide range of family forms (including non-blood-related). Communities and eco-cities are built around extended family "estates."

Women's Visions

These scenarios of the future are not intended to be a definitive compilation of the rich body of women's and feminist literature. They are only intended as glimpses of alternative possibilities in the next century and beyond. Some of these scenarios may be more probable than others; some, more preferable. In any case, it is important to examine a full range of possibilities, because certain elements of each of these scenarios may be what lies ahead.

There is no question in the author's mind that women's rising status in society represents nothing less than a radical transformation of the social fabric. To assume only "more of the same" in the future is truly an unrealistic expectation.

One message is that women must continue to envision, create, and realize their own futures.

RELATED ARTICLE: Closing the Gender Gap?

Will men and women become more alike in the future, or more different?

Clearly at the biological level there are some differences between the two genders. There is certainly no agreement among feminists on whether these differences are good or bad. Should we strive to obscure the differences between the genders or to heighten them?

Genetically, things will soon be up for grabs. Given what we are learning about the human genetic code - the human genome - males or females could be constructed as similarly or as differently as is genetically possible.

Men and women can also be surgically reconstructed to be more similar or more different. Sex-change operations have become common, so changing gender is a possibility if you decide you were born into the wrong sex. Physiological differences are already narrowing between men and women in advanced countries due to improved health and vitamin use. The most dramatic evidence of this phenomenon is the shrinking gap between men's and women's athletic records.

Culturally, differences between men and women in sharing "nurturing" and "caring" responsibilities for family and the home environment are narrowing somewhat. The terms "house husband" and "parental leave" were unheard of a few decades ago and are indicative of the blurring of domestic gender responsibilities. If my students are an indicator, younger generations may be much more accepting of these changes.

Psychologically, women are increasingly in charge of their own procreation, bodies, financial and political lives, and a burgeoning women's "culture." In this respect, women's growing demand to be independent and more different from men makes them, ironically, more like men.

BOSTON MARATHON
Winning Times

          1897      1974     1984      1994

Women      -      2:47:11   2:29:28   2:21:45
Men     2:55:10   2:13:39   2:10:34   2:07:15

Source: The Universal Almanac 1996 (Andrews and McMeel).

Christopher B. Jones is assistant professor of political science at Eastern Oregon State College, School of Administrative Studies, 1410 "L" Avenue, La Grande, Oregon 97850. Telephone 541/962-3385; fax 541/962-3428; e-mail cjones[at]eosc.osshe.edu. He holds a doctorate and master's in alternative futures from the University of Hawaii at Manoa and has been involved in futures research and education since 1980. He will speak at the Eighth General Assembly in July.