Tourism in the twenty-first century: global terrorism is changing the nature of travel, but...

The travel industry made great strides during the 1990s thanks to inexpensive and safe air travel, hotels that were oases of tranquility, and inexpensive gasoline. But to succeed in the twenty-first century, the industry must overcome a host of new challenges, including fears of biochemical attacks, irregular gas prices, higher airfares, long lines at airports, and additional security clearances.

The March 2002 Passover massacre in Israel, which targeted a popular seaside hotel, is an example of the interconnection between tourism and terrorism as an act of political and economic war. The U.S. State Department's travel alerts and ongoing conflicts in places like Colombia, Afghanistan, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa show that the threat to tourism is global. When terrorism strikes in key tourism-oriented nations, the travel industry's basic health is at risk.

The decline in tourism to the United States after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center is another example of the new interaction between terrorism and tourism. "Total international arrivals for USA in September 2001 dropped 29% when compared with September 2000," notes the Travel Industry Association of America (TIA).

WHY TERRORISTS ATTACK TOURISM CENTERS

Terrorists may seek out tourist destinations for a variety of reasons:

* An attack on a tourism center is an attack on that nation's economy.

For instance, fear of flying after September 11 hurt not only the airline business, but also the local economies of air travel-dependent destinations. Another impact is a decrease in foreign currencies and investments. To illustrate the importance of foreign currency to tourism, 48.5 million international visitors spent $95 billion in the United States at the end of the twentieth century.

That money helps the American tourist industry employ some 18 million people with a payroll of more than $160 billion.

* Terrorism is highly media-oriented. Terrorism seeks publicity, and tourist attractions like sporting events and festivals are likely to have media already at the site.

* Tourist attractions--museums, historic sites, and beautiful scenery--represent the spirit and essence of a nation.

* Tourist spots provide terrorists relative anonymity. Police and security professionals rarely know the identities or motivations of visitors at sites and events.

Most democratic nations pride themselves on the right to travel freely. Yet this freedom of travel has become a tool in terrorists' hands. The twenty-first century will have to find a way to permit freedom of personal travel while still protecting people from those who would seek to harm them.

Clearly, increasing security will be a must for air carriers, hotels, restaurants, and other services. Salad bars and buffets in hotel restaurants may become a thing of the past as risk managers begin to assess the possibility of terrorism and bioterrorism in their dining rooms.

Security experts in the travel industry must also address the possibility of a "suicide disease carrier" purposefully infecting whole populations. Such a planned attack would send an infected person by airplane to another country for the purpose of becoming a human biological weapon.

Other Tourism Trends

Other major forces impacting travel as the industry responds to terrorism include new technologies, the aging of society, and time pressures creating a growing demand for convenience.

New technology such as electronic devices for interpersonal communication will take on far greater importance in the travel industry. Teleconferencing will save time and money, and will also allay fears of kidnapping and terrorist attacks. The trend toward teleconferencing and interactive Web conferences (IWC) means that what was once a major investment in sophisticated equipment will soon become an affordable option. IWC will permit people of all races and from all walks of life to meet in cyberspace and then return to their home bases in relative security. Because one's nationality and religion are not necessarily apparent in this medium, IWC may greatly diminish fears of prejudice and terrorism.

Virtual travel technology, which simulates the visual experience of various destinations, could be a major player if the travel industry fails to invest more in security--or if increased security fails to allay fears of travel. Discretionary dollars that would have been spent on travel may be used for electronic equipment that promotes virtual travel. Of course, once the investment has been made for virtual travel equipment, there is an obligation to use what has been purchased.

Aging populations in most developed nations will also bring about change in the travel industry. Expect the following trends:

* More grandparents traveling with grandchildren.

* Higher wages in the service industry, since there will be fewer people to serve an expanding market.

* An increase in leisurely vacations, rather than highly programmed vacations.

* Greater demand for all-inclusive, family-oriented resorts.

* More urban vacations with all-weather activities and 24-hour service.

Convenience will be paramount to travelers in the twenty-first century. Airport delays caused by security concerns, a lack of runways, overcrowded skies, and the hub-and-spoke system will make air travel less practical and more frustrating. Both business and leisure travelers will seek ways to avoid air traffic delays, resulting in a trend away from short flights. Businesspeople in particular are determining that, by the time they arrive at an airport, spend two hours in security lines, fly to a destination, and rent a car, they would have been better off taking a train or driving.

The new demand for convenience also means fewer travelers will make shopping a priority: Carting shopping bags onto airplanes is no longer possible as airlines impose stricter limits on carry-on items. In addition, the global economy makes most products from throughout the world available in many shoppers' hometowns. Though shopping is still the most popular tourist activity, according to the TIA, outdoor activities (rated second) or visiting museums or historic sites (rated third) may surpass shopping in the latter part of this decade.

In a society where travel becomes dangerous and global products become locally available, the need to travel will diminish. In the same manner, the greater use of technology means that more meetings and conferences will be held in offices rather than convention centers. Smaller communities that have based their economic future on conferences may find themselves in very difficult financial situations.

As airport lines get longer, people may get angrier, and many will find other ways to connect than through travel. To continue to grow and prosper, the industry will have to find ways to provide safe, secure, and convenient travel experiences. Otherwise, the twenty-first century may see the end of the travel boom.

Travel Industry Data Box

                                              % Change

Domestic (U.S.) Air, Revenue Passenger Miles   -10.3
International Air, Revenue Passenger Miles     -11.7
Air Transportation Employment                  -10.3
Amtrak Revenue Passenger Miles                   8.7
Gasoline Service Station Receipts              -14.1
Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate                      -4.3
Hotel/Motel Employment                          -3.7
Eating and Drinking Places Receipts              6.4

Travel hit turbulence in 2001. Figures show change from February 2001 to
February 2002.

Source: Travel Industry Association of America, www.tia.org

RELATED ARTICLE: Travel For Lifelong Learning

About 30 million adults have taken an educational trip to learn or improve a skill, sport, or hobby in the past three years, the Travel Industry Association of America reports. These educational travelers are more likely than total travelers to be male (56%), younger (average age 39 years), a college graduate (49%), have a professional or managerial occupation (38%), have children in the household (51%), and have a higher annual household income ($75,000 on average).

Universities will become centers for foreign travel. They provide a relatively safe and healthy environment, offer affordable housing and meal programs, are centers of multicultural learning, teach targeted courses for people already in the workforce, and can quickly train people in language and communications skills.

Peter Tarlow

Long-Term Losses for Tourism

While most industries are expected to recover from the shock of September 11, the tourism industry could suffer the most permanent job losses.

The 305,000 travel industry job cuts from September 11, 2001, to March 31, 2001, account for 25% of the total cuts in this period, according to John A. Challenger, CEO of the international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Though the pace of layoffs in tourism has slowed since the terrorist attacks, Challenger believes that employers in the sector will be slow to rehire, if they rehire at all.

A number of smaller travel agencies have already gone out of business because of the September attacks, cuts in commissions from airlines, and more competition from Internet firms offering less expensive, direct purchase choices, Challenger notes. Travel agency job have declined by 21% since 1966, according to the Airlines Reporting Group, and many may never return to their former numbers.

Airlines and airplane manufacturers may also experience permanent job loss due to falling demand for air travel, particularly for flight of fewer than 200 miles. With tight security measures making short trips a hassle for the traveling public decreased demand for short flights may be a lasting trend. Nearly tow-thirds of the tourism-related layoffs from last September to March were among the airlines and airplane manufacturers; the rest were in hotels, tourist destinations, airports, food companies, travel agents/services, and car rental agencies.

"Travel and tourism-related job cuts are probably higher than the number actually show since so many small business--including small restaurants, souvenir shops, travel agencies, and mom-and-pop motels--are storefront operations that often close without announcement," say Challenger. "One day the business is there and the next it is not. Perhaps only three to seven people are affected, but the numbers start to add up."

Source: John A. Challenger, Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., 150 South Wacker Drive, Suite 2700, Chicago, Illinois 60606. Web site www.challengergray.com.

Travel Forecasts

* More spas and health resorts will open, and more hotels will offer full health clubs and heart-healthy diets.

* "Travel dealership" that specialize in a particular product, such as a specific cruise line, will compete with traditional travel agencies.

* Ecotourism will be less popular. Environmental pressure, an aging population, and fear to disease will lead to more urban vacations or camping experiences away from large populations.

Peter Tarlow

About the Author

Peter E. Tarlow is founder and president of Tourism and More and publisher of Tourism Tidbits. His address is 1218 Merry Oaks, College Station, Texas 77840. Telephone 1-979-764-8402.

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