Tools for better global thinking.

2004 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon. American Council for the United Nations University. 2004. 97 pages, with CD-ROM. $49.95. Order from the publisher, www.acunu.org/millennium/issues.html.

The producers of this eighth annual compilation of global statistics,

interpretations, and proposals for improvements in the human condition describe it as "a utility from which people can draw information and ideas to be adapted to their unique needs." The care and effort that has gone into shaping this utility are evident and impressive. But actually using this material to help develop "a context for global thinking" remains a major challenge.

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The report begins with an executive summary of positive and negative developments likely to affect the planet and its people. The intent is clearly to avoid exaggerations and to accurately depict reality, but the result can also confuse readers.

For example, the report notes that, in the past 20 years, "income per capita has grown almost 10%, life expectancy has increased about seven years, secondary school enrollments are up 30%, and infant mortality rates are down by 40%." Assuming these figures are accurate, this represents a truly astonishing achievement, perhaps unmatched in human history. The authors then add a "yes, but" comment to the effect that growing income disparities between the top and bottom 5% of Earth's population could "grow enough to create global instability." As phrased, this danger doesn't sound too serious. After all, what's a little "instability" compared with the solid practical benefits of greater wealth, more education, and better health?

It could be argued, however, that "average" statistics for the entire world can be misleading and that it is the absolute number of individuals who fall significantly below world averages for income, education, health, and hope that really matters. The concentration of such people in a few specific regions could make them a danger to everyone everywhere.

The report goes on to offer brief assessments of 15 major problem areas or Global Challenges identified and refined through a process of Delphi polling and environmental scanning over the past 18 years. These are valuable as guides to what many professional futurists and planners (some 1,700 individuals overall) regard as the most important issues that should be shaping government legislation, business policy, and responsible behavior by individuals. Sadly, however, the authors are forced to repeat their conclusion from last year's report: that humanity clearly "has the resources to address its global challenges," but that it is less clear "how much wisdom, good will, and intelligence will be focused on these challenges."

Much of this brief and readable report, and its attached CD (packed with over 3,000 pages of information to back up the graphs, charts, and statistics in this and past years' editions), is taken up with graphic representations of possible directions for future developments in specific areas. These "State of the Future Index" (SOFI) graphs are offered as one way to compare proposed policies and actions on the basis of their long-range impacts. Readers lacking a specialized background in statistics may have to take the accuracy of these graphs on faith. But at least this rudimentary and still-evolving tool makes it possible to quantify many risks and opportunities that are all too easily discounted or ignored if they remain intangible.

I applaud this latest evidence of concentrated and sustained effort by the United Nations University team to give futures thinking a larger role in government and private-sector decisions. Useful tools for that task are clearly available. Now we need effective ways of motivating legislators, businesses, and ordinary citizens to pick up those tools and use them.