World writers speak out on the Century ahead: UNESCO futurist Jerome Binde has compiled a...

Keys to the 21st Century

edited by Jerome Binde. UNESCO Publishing and Berghahn Books. 2001. 395 pages. Paperback. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $22.50 ($19.95 for Society members), cat. no. B-2406.

An anthology of essays is usually intended to be browsed, not read cover

The book's success is due in large measure to artful arrangement and articulate commentary by editor Jerome Binde. As director of UNESCO's Office of Analysis and Forecasting, futurist and author Binde has worked since 1997 to persuade writers and thinkers from many countries and disciplines to engage in a global debate on major challenges of the future. In this volume, he presents the opinions and ideas aired at the first nine discussions in UNESCO's ongoing series of public forums and debates on the twenty-first century.

The book's 82 offerings (many of them quite brief) address such topics as foresight and uncertainty, the future of the human species, space exploration and development, cultural clashes vs. cultural hybridization, human rights, and globalization.

In his introduction, Binde urges us to envision possibilities, rather than be content to extrapolate from existing realities, and to do so not merely from a personal perspective, but with a recognition of our interdependence with everything that surrounds us--other people, animals, plants, and the finite stock of natural resources that sustain us.

One impressive feature of this book is how many contributors rise to the challenge Binde poses--often with very few words and a great deal of common sense. For example, writing on prospects for future developments in space, Andre Lebeau, retired president of the French Center for Space Studies, states two facts: (1) So far, human beings do nothing in space that machines cannot do better; and (2) since it still costs some $10,000 to put one pound of payload into orbit, nothing we bring back from space can be sold at a profit. As a result, neither orbiting colonies nor interplanetary travel is yet practical, and only satellites for communication and space-based observations of Earth have a proven value for commerce and everyday life. Without some breakthrough in propulsion to make space flight safer and cheaper, Lebeau argues, it is likely that only international alliances of governments will fund space research, and they will do so not for national glory, but to pursue humankind's fundamental questions about existence with no guarantee that the knowledge gained will ever have any practical application.

Among the well-known futurists contributing their perspectives on likely developments in futures-studies techniques are Hugues de Jouvenel, director-general of Futuribles International; Eleonora Barbieri Masini, professor of future studies and human ecology and author of Why Futures Studies? (1993); and Finnish futurist and management professor Pentti Malaska, former president of the World Futures Studies Federation. Many of the authors are likely to be less familiar to U.S. readers, such as Tanzanian Ambassador Gertrude Mongella, former Senegalese Minister of Women Ndioro Ndiaye, and Turkish sociologist Nilufer Gole, who contributed their insights on the future of women. The inclusion of these and other authors makes the book a useful introduction to new voices, all the more valuable because the writing is consistently clear and concise.

The issues addressed in this book are timely and relevant, even though it was prepared well before the events of September 11, 2001. In addition to considering such "material concerns" as population growth, biotechnology, water supply, pollution, food, and energy supplies, the editor has also included selections addressing humanity's spiritual and cultural future, with essays on heritage, language, the arts, and even passions: Historian Theodore Zeldin of Oxford University reflects on hope vs. cynicism, action vs. passivity, and laughter as an affinity-building force.

The volume concludes with an examination of globalization and the relative likelihood of cultural clashes vs. accommodation without total blending or loss of identity. Among the issues considered are prospects for a new "ethical contract" governing relations between the wealthy and the poor, to avoid the isolation and estrangement of the former and the exploitation and despair among the latter.

Keys to the 21st Century is stimulating, timely, and truly future-focused in the practical sense that, instead of pointing fingers of blame at the causes of current problems, the authors concentrate on what can be done with what we have starting today.

RELATED ARTICLE: The Origin and Future of the Future.

I believe that the future was invented 2 million years ago at the very moment when not-yet-human creatures began making tools. Prior to that moment, hominids undoubtedly used objects such as stones or branches, but these were thrown away as soon as they had served their purpose. It is when tools were manufactured and kept beyond their immediate use that the future was born. Therefore, the invention of the future was simultaneous with the invention of technology. Since then, the existence of the human species has been closely interwoven with technology. In fact, we are nothing without technology....

The invention of the future brought a new dimension to the two existing realities: present and past. Each of these dimensions involves specific mental faculties. Knowledge of the present can be acquired through observation. Our knowledge of the past is retained through our memory. Finally, knowledge about the future involves conceiving and perceiving. Therefore, the knowledge base of future-oriented studies must not only account for objective and factual knowledge, but also for our perceptual knowledge, which must be educated and trained. Without perception, there is no future.

Excerpted from "Inventing the Future" by Pentti Maiaska in Keys to the 21st Century.

About the Reviewer

Lane Jennings is research director of THE FUTURIST, production editor of Future Survey, and author of Virtual Futures.