Antarctic minerals: no quick payoff.

Antarctica is being examined more and more as a possible source of valuable minerals, but a report by the U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) states that exploitation of any minerals found there is not likely within the next 30 years.

Geologic, economic, environmental,

Even if a major oil deposit were found in the near future, oil recovery in the region is unlikely before 2020, according to the study. It is also unlikely that anything smaller than a giant (500 million to 5 billion barrels) or supergiant (over 5 billion barrels) field would ever be economical to develop. Nevertheless, if a huge field were discovered in Antarctica it would likely attract commercial interest. Technology, per se, should not be a major constraint to development 30 years from now, says OTA.

OTA prepared this report, entitled Polar Prospects: A Minerals Treaty for Antarctica, at the request of congressional committees exploring whether the United States should ratify a treaty that would establish rules governing minerals development in Antarctica. The Convention on the Regulation of Antarctic Mineral Resources Activities was adopted in 1988 because the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, the basic agreement governing the continent, had no provisions for mineral resources.

If ratified, the Mineral Convention would provide a framework to guide future decisions on whether Antarctic minerals should be developed and, if so, under what circumstances. The Convention does not presume that any exploration or development will ever take place, but if a major minerals discovery were made in absence of an international agreement, an unregulated -gold rush" could follow.

OTA constructed several hypothetical scenarios to illustrate likely technology requirements for offshore oil development in Antarctica and to gain some insight into the economics of producing oil there. The report concludes that not only would at least a doubling of current world oil prices be required to develop a very large oil deposit on a commercial basis, but there are several other factors, such as environmental concerns, that would tend to delay or deter serious consideration of Antarctic oil. The report also concludes that economic exploitation of hard minerals outside the Antarctic Peninsula is unlikely, especially in the relatively inaccessible inland areas.