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Savings, investment, productivity and economic growth of Australia 1861-1990: Some explorations

By Chaudhri, D P
Publication: Economic Record
Date: Wednesday, March 1 2000
HEADNOTE

Policy makers' concerns over sub-optimal savings rates in Australia mistakenly concentrate on symptoms rather than causes of low rates of growth in investment and productivity. A growth model of a small open economy is used

to demonstrate possible interdependencies of these variables which are tested using cointegration and long-run Granger causality techniques for the periods 1861-1900 and 1949-90. As expected, no direct long-run relationship is found between savings and investment. However the interactions between investment and productivity growth are found to be complex and evolving, whilst savings appear to be determined residually in the growth process.

1 Introduction

There appears to be a consensus that Australia's contemporary savings rates are too low, and this situation restrains domestic investment, slows economic growth and increases external debt and the rate of unemployment.l The `saving constraint' view has been adopted and emphasized in current fiscal policy. The Treasurer and Minister for Finance recently announced in the Budget Strategy and Outlook, 1997 98 that raising `national saving is the primary focus of the Government's medium-term fiscal strategy' (pp.1-12). The Treasurer in the Budget Speech, 1997-98 also claims that with

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