Rutland County dynamically advancing into the future

The organizers of Rutland's "All Aboard" community art event had hoped their parade would draw a good crowd, but few expected more than 2,000 people to show up.

Teams from sponsoring organizations pushed or towed large wooden model trains, many decorated by area artists, past the Merchants Row

shop of wood craftsman Michael Divoll, who built most of them. After a circuit of the business district, they were parked on closed Center Street - which a local Creative Economy forum has recommended for permanent closure like Burlington's Church Street Marketplace - while visitors listened to Satin and Steel, munched vendor goodies, and took gigabytes of digital pictures.

It was a triumphant moment, which those with long memories associated with the 1998 consultants' report "On the Right Track," which outlined a strategy for keeping the downtown area dynamic despite mall, shopping center and chain discount store competition. Looking ahead, there was resonance with the ambitious effort to relocate the remaining railroad yards out of town, which would free up more downtown space while creating rail-served industrial sites south of town.

But the movers and shakers and community leaders are aware that in the general picture, there is no sunlight without a shadow.

Times are pretty good, with a rousing housing market, "help wanted" signs springing up, and even the area's embattled manufacturing sector scoring some successes. But interest rates are rising, some of those labor vacancies may reflect housing prices driven to unaffordability by out-of-state demand, and layoffs at the county's powerhouse employer General Electric have rippled through the region.

Federal highway transportation grants have helped, while federal cuts to social services have hurt, and the multitrillion-dollar federal deficit may doom passenger air service at Rutland State Airport if the Office of Management and Budget's recommendation for cuts in rural air subsidies goes through. Consumer sales account for a majority of the national economy dollars, and with people carrying thousands of dollars of credit card debt on average, and young people entering the workforce toting backpack loads of college debts, and many worried about the cost of the country's multiple war efforts, the shopper buoyancy that has kept everything afloat can't be presumed to continue apace.

And so on. If globalization has made the world "flat," as Thomas Friedman has suggested, even the Green Mountain State has to worry about tsunamis.

Rutland County, however, has a tradition of making its own visions, plans, and concentrated efforts a balancing factor. Adding urgency, the 2000 U.S. Census, which showed the region lacking in economic strength and population growth, was a wake-up call.

The Creative Economy concept, now widely accepted throughout New England, has taken root with astonishing speed and, as in the case of Brandon, sometimes with astonishing effect. While the effort continues to make a combination of upgraded rail lines and an improved U.S. Route 7 compensate for the lack of an Interstate highway, the county is vigorously addressing the Vermont-wide problem of a graying population.

Big chain stores don't come into a region without due diligence as to their long-term prospects. Judging by the arrival in recent years of Walgreen's (even though Rite-Aid, CVS, Brook's and homegrown drug stores were already present), Tractor Supply, Hampton Inn, Dick's Sporting Goods, Big Lots, Bare Bones Furniture, and Michael's Crafts, and the rumors of a Starbucks and a big chain retailer coming in, Rutland is not in a rut.

Buy Which Numbers?

By the numbers, the same pattern of not so good for a good year, not so bad for a bad year" holds true.

The most recent Vermont Department of Labor monthly report showed that Rutland's unemployment rate for March was 3.7 percent, compared with 3.8 percent in March of 2005, which compared with a March 2005 statewide rate of 4.1 percent. On the other hand, in 2004 there were 5,652 people receiving food stamps in 2004 out of a Vermont total of 44,795 - 12.6 percent - possibly because the average wage needed to rent a one-room apartment (as of 2005) was $10.69.

When the first results of the New England Common Assessment tests came out in March, the average Vermont scores on the fourth and eighth grade tests were 67 percent proficient or better in reading and 63 percent in math. At the Rutland Middle School, the numbers were 48 percent and 38 percent. School officials said new educational programs had just been started and hadn't affected the results yet; Secretary of Education Richard Cate said there were "very large gaps depending on socioeconomic status" (poor kids did worse) that were not going to go away unless we as a society - not just in Vermont - call for significant change."

Though housing costs may be hurting those with less than median incomes, Rutland County's housing prices are below those for Vermont as a whole, except for mobile homes with land, which were almost the same ($84,483 and $84,324 statewide). Census figures showed the 2005 average single-family home price at $175,234 versus $231,968 for Vermont, and $129,568 versus $195,424 for condominiums.

That may help account for the area's heated real estate market, where signs of a slowdown are hard to find. In Rutland, seasoned veteran real estate agent Fran Veller said. "It's an unbelievable market," with buyers even coming from Europe. In Castleton, Wenda Bird said she had opened a branch in North Clarendon to go with the main office in the village of Bomoseen, and "we've just been busy." In Brandon, Fred Rowe said last year was the best they've had in 19 years, and "It hasn't let up at all. I don't know about this bubble they're talking about."

However, different agencies are seeing different kinds of activity. Rowe said that only about 10 percent of his group's business is with out-of-staters, though they might account for as much as 40 percent of dollar sales because they're the ones who buy the big historic houses. Around Lake Bomoseen, Bird said, even small cabins get snapped up by out-of-state buyers - for around $500,000 - then tear them down and build houses that make the whole deal a million dollar purchase.

Elsewhere, though, Bird is seeing movement through the price ladder: for instance people with first-time homes moving up, leaving room for others to become first-time homebuyers. Veller, too, is seeing broad market activity. Around the state, real estate specialists have said the lack of such a pathway of buying opportunities has been almost as big a problem as prices.

"The one thing we don't have are viable building lots," Bird said, meaning properties with soil that percolates well enough for septic disposal or which are close to water lines and power. ("There's not much undeveloped land where there's sewer," said James Thomas, Planning Commission chairman in nearby Castleton, according to the Rutland Herald.) A more creative approach to septic system disposal has been authorized by the Legislature, but the exact regulations are still being developed.

A Housing Needs Assessment commissioned by the Rutland County Community Land Trust found that Rutland County was last among Vermont's counties in production of new housing, with only 11.4 percent of its ownership stock built between 1990 and 2000. However, there are places around Rutland County where developers are responding to the unmet housing needs, Veller said. In Brandon, if all the projects approved or envisioned get built, the town of about 4,200 people could add another 500 residents.

Prior to home ownership come jobs that pay well enough to finance such purchases. While the Creative Economy seems to be a growing factor, county leaders have been clear about the need for manufacturing as well. To put it another way, artists and artisans need someone to purchase their works, and it helps to have businesses making more basic goods.

The industrial sector, too, has seen hits and misses in the past year. General Electric, the 1,400-pound gorilla of the local employment picture, warned in January that with several types of military aviation spare parts now stocked up, business was likely to slow for GE Aviation in 2006. Sure enough, in February there were layoffs - but only of the 42 employees of the Adecco temp agency, who had temporarily been there for two years.

That left 1,372 full-time employees, a number that GE-Rutland has said should increase in 2007 as production ramps up for the GE90 engine (Boeing 777) and the more fuel-efficient GEnx engine (Boeing 787 and 747-8, and Airbus 350).

Helping to prepare for that, the Stafford Technical Center (next to Rutland High School) has in the past year begun a program that should help GE with its "super-creative, smart, really hardworking group of people," as plant manager Doug Folsom has called them, as well as other manufacturing businesses. The three-step program goes from basic skills (computer literacy, teamwork, communication) to technical skills (computer-assisted design, machine operation) to highlevel skills (advanced fabrication and assembly).

William McGrath, executive director of the industrially oriented Rutland Economic Development Corporation (REDC), said Stafford's first class is about to graduate. "As far as I know, every one is graduating to a job," he said.

That is because a number of manufacturing companies in the county are doing well enough to add more employees. McGrath said Hubbardton Forge, a maker of hand-crafted lighting fixtures and home accessories, is growing expecting to add 100 jobs in the next two years after recapitalization from the Boston investment firm Lineage Capital. Ellison Surface Technologies, which does work for GE, is looking to add 50. Kalow Controls and Sto architectural coatings and paints are likewise looking for qualified help.

Older Isn't Wiser

It's been a truism of Vermont life for a couple of centuries that its greatest export is people, but the post-World War II population bulge known as the Baby Boom appears likely to create particularly acute problems when it comes to replacing a generation of workers.

Every year, REDC and the Rutland Region Chamber of Commerce work out a Public Policy Statement that is something of a wish list for the Legislature. This year, it included a suggestion that employers receive tax credits for hiring recent graduates of Vermont colleges or Vermont student getting degrees from out-of-state colleges, after a year's employment, to help stem the "brain drain" of talented students migrating elsewhere.

In the background of that proposal, which still remains on the table, were statements like that of state economist Jeffrey Carr in 2005, that Vermont lost 20- to 34-year olds in the 1990's, at nearly four times the national average. The state's population is already grayer than in most parts of the country, he said, and moving even further in that direction would create problems for the housing stock, the Medicaid budget, medical services - and employers. There is "the possibility that there will be a significant shortage of workers in the not so distant future," Carr said.

A 2006 New York Times article pointed out that among the states, Vermont has the lowest birthrate and the highest proportion of students attending college outside its borders. By 2030, if trends continued, there would be only two people of working age for every retiree. Gov. James Douglas' proposal for a $175 million Vermont Promise Scholarship program, regardless of its poor reception in the Legislature, shows the degree of consensus that somehow the problem must be faced.

In the past year, the Rutland Regional Planning Commission went from gathering gloomy statistics to talking with young adults, and found that solving basic economic problems like finding jobs with the right career tracks and struggling to pay rent wouldn't be enough. Younger adults wanted places to go, things to do - more social life than Rutland was offering.

The age demographic for that reason touches on many recent efforts in Rutland County: trying to create a regional recreation center, trying to compensate for the relocation of Zero Gravity's skate park to a New Hampshire ski area, the founding of Vermont's first chapter of the nationwide group MOMS (Mothers Offering Mothers Support), and the formation of RutBusters. The last, mainly comprised of 20- to 35-year-olds, sends out the RutVegas events and entertainment newsletter to about 350 people and takes part in facilitating some events (such as a parade in Rutland for the U. S. Freestyle Skiing Championships that took place at Killington this past winter).

Many of the organizations involved with the Creative Economy effort (to be described in more detail in a separate article) help give people of all ages reasons to get out and mingle. The Paramount Theatre is used by promoters for rock music shows, the Crossroads Arts Council has a huge artists-in-the-schools program, area libraries host all kinds of events, for the second year a big comedy festival is scheduled, films are projected on one downtown building wall for free viewing in the summer, and there are free concerts during the warm months in Rutland, Castleton, Brandon, and more.

Ultimately, the social life problem is part of the same chicken-and-egg complex of problems that includes keeping housing affordable, upgrading business infrastructure (broadband and cell phone service is still not universal), maintaining the vitality of the downtown area, and attracting and retaining growth businesses. Comparing Rutland with Burlington, it may take quite a while to overcome one obstacle to having an exciting "scene" for the younger set: a critical mass of population.

Malls and Rails

In the late 1980's, Rutland City faced the possibility of several large shopping malls encircling their downtown and draining away its customers and businesses. In the 1990's, downtown revitalization became a reality (in part thanks to the adjacent Plaza, which provides parking and brings in a regional clientele thanks to Wal-Mart, a big Price Chopper, and the county's largest cineplex), the Rutland Mall to the east became moribund, and the Diamond Run Mall struggled.

Now the Rutland Mall is back, with Home Depot, Big Lots, Bare Bones Furniture, and the possibility of more. Diamond Run is holding its own: for instance, this past year the veteran Army & Navy Store closed downtown, and the mall added Old Navy. And the Green Mountain Plaza is booming, tearing down a grocery store whose chain broke and replacing it with a Michael's Crafts (which together with Joanne Fabric will constitute a formidable crafts niche), and attracting other customers with Staples, Radio Shack, Dick's Sporting Goods, and more.

The south end of the outskirts, served by a Route 4 bypass that is the closest thing in the region to an Interstate, is booming: in addition to Diamond Run and Green Mountain, a Tractor Supply has set up there and a Hampton Inn is going up next to the Holiday Ann.

Downtown Rutland may get rescued by the same part of its history that gave it the Plaza: the rail switching yard, which at one point was 14 tracks wide. As part of an ambitious plan to upgrade rail transit throughout western Vermont, the railyard would be relocated to the south, a project that might include an alternate truck route from the Route 4 bypass (helping everyone's traffic situation) and rail-accesible industrial sites. One additional commercial space has already been created in the past year by the demolition of a crumbling, mostly disused parking deck near the mostly disused Amtrak train station next to the much-used Wal-Mart.

But expanding downtown Rutland's commercial zone isn't the main priority of the rail project.

Rutland City and Rutland Town have formed a four-member Rail Committee, and obtained a $10,000 state planning grant to hire Eyal Shapira, president of Corporate Logistics in Newton, Massachusetts, as a consultant. Looking at the areas near the state-owned Vermont Railway tracks from Center Rutland north of the Plaza on south to the Clarendon town line, he found six sites suitable for seven to 11 railrelated businesses, and eight more sites with industrial or commercial potential.

Shapira, a specialist in the development and marketing of such sites, advised Rutland to market the parcels and get several commitments by businesses to locate there if the rail project went through. That would help with permitting and getting funding, he said. Matthew Sternberg, executive director of the Rutland Redevelopment Authority which functions as Rutland City's economic development arm - pointed out that the OMYA marble grinding company in Pittsford is already the kind of heavy rail user that funders look for in assessing project viability.

The new federal transportation bill allocated $30 million for rail improvements in western Vermont, but that money might have to be shared with general improvements to the line (the so-called Albany-Bennington-Rutland-Burlington project) and a possible rail spur to OMYA's huge quarry in Middlebury. The latter is in the final stage of the federally required Environmental Impact Statement process - a preferred route has been mapped out - and OMYA has said it will pay much of the bill for the work.

Sternberg has argued for the creation of a Rail Authority, which he has said would work better with the private sector and could use bonding more effectively to finance the work. The recent session of the Legislature ended without such a move, he said, but a study committee will reconvene in August to look at the project and decide if the Agency of Transportation should pursue it.

VTrans officials came to Rutland in May to talk about the goals for a Vermont Rail and Policy Plan they are hope to release in September. One goal is to make the Vermont system suitable for "doublestacking," putting shipping containers on top of each other on flatbed rail cars, which requires 19 feet of clearance.

The Green Mountain Railway, which links Bellows Falls and Rutland, is one priority route for this, along with the Central Vermont Railway. VTrans rail administrator Charles Miller said the ABRB north-south line wasn't a priority, on the recommendation of rail officials and business rail users. The presence of two substandard road overpasses in downtown Middlebury, whose replacement with double-stack clearance bridges would devastate their business district, might have had something to do with that recommendation.

But the rail option may take on more importance if Rutland State Airport loses its subsidy for passenger flights, which has been proposed as a way of reducing the federal operation deficit. Currently, Commute Air Continental Connection of Plattsburgh has two flights to Boston every weekday and one on Saturdays and Sundays, using 19passenger turboprops.

Joel Raymond, Commute Air's vice-president of marketing, said "We're certainly not on the road to operating without a subsidy." Yet the traffic level at airports such as Rutland is "very critical" for the region to have access to national air service, he said.

Raymond said he was very pleased to see the Rutland Regional Chamber of Commerce obtain a grant to develop a marketing program for their service, which reaches an airport with national and international connections "at a very reasonable price." There is "plenty Of growth in Rutland," he said, and "this program is certainly a step in the right direction."

Airport manager Thomas Trudeau said they and other small airports have fought the subsidy battle in Congress session after session, and this may prove to be another case where the Small Community Air Service Program stays in the end. "It will be fought through this summer," he said.

Meanwhile, small jet traffic has increased substantially, Trudeau said. This was especially true for corporate jets after 9/11, he said, but in the last year the FAA came out with safety regulations for small airports that effectively decreased their usable runway size from 5,000 feet to 3-4,000 feet, to provide "a margin of safety." A recent project to put grooves in the runway pavement, suggested by small jet operators, should be a plus, allowing the jets to land under what would otherwise be unsuitable weather conditions, he said.

It's a Long, Long Road A-winding

For two previous years, Rutland County's Transportation Council didn't bother sending a priority list to VTrans, because so much of the State's budget was going to be consumed by a few high-profile projects. In the past year they did, because some of that big-ticket work had reached a stopping point, there is 11 new determination in Montpelier to fix ailing infrastructure, and a new federal transportation bill has added nearly $56 million in Rutland County, spending to a State budget more than twice last year's $8 in million. Tops on the TC list was continuing the effort to improve Routes 7 and 4 inside Rutland - necessitated by a failure to find any viable bypass route several years ago. Thank pork: the additional lanes will be shoehorned in because Congressman Bernard Sanders requested that $2.8 million be added to Vermont's original $53 million allocation for the Rutland project.

But six of the first eight - places belonged to the six segments of the ongoing work to raise U.S. Route 7 from Pittsford to Brandon to true United States designated highway standards. A ridgeside road legendary for its poor safety record ("Friends Don't Let Friends Drive Route 7," "Cowpath of Doom") will have 12-foot travel lanes, eightfoot shoulders, and usually clear zones beyond, at least outside the two villages.

The master plan has received Act 250 approval, and Segments Three and Five have construction approval as well. Number six, Brandon village, will go to Act 250 for construction okay as soon as stormwater issues are resolved.

Brandon's Select Board had to make two tough decisions that speeded the process on, both of which backed the original design for the village developed by VTrans and CLD Engineering. A sizable minority of residents preferred a traffic circle around Central Park, which would have preserved a wider public green, or at least substituting green space for one row of parking in a municipal lot that will replace the current highway on the side of the park near a row of businesses.

In both cases, the board sided with it, business district, where many store owners say profit margins remain, well, marginal. Also at stake, in their view, was state and federal funding for much-needed work on water, sewer and stormwater lines that go under the highway - only 5 percent of which ($750,000) will have to come from - a $2.75 million high way work bond that voters approved at Town Meeting.

Good Times Rolling

All over the county, communities have seen positive developments, not all of which can be listed here. Among the most significant:

* Fair Haven has an active group working to make its airport, so far unpaved, become a stronger part of its future. A plan to put a truck transshipping facility along the railroad near Route 22A, a straightshot route to northern Vermont that sees heavy truck traffic, waits in the wings.

* Poultney has turned the derelict Stonebridge Inn, now municipally owned, into a gathering point for local social services, and has a major grant for a village sidewalk project to enhance its revitalizing business district.

* The three colleges - Castleton State, Green Mountain in Poultney and the College of St. Joseph in Rutland have been adding facilities and attracting more students. Castleton had to close freshman admissions in record time this year, in May, due to the huge demand.

* The town of Killington saw the American Skiing Company turn a profit in one quarter and resume its plan for a slopeside village at the Killington Ski Resort. Thanks to snowmaking advances, those slopes once again operated until May, in a year of sometimes freakish warmth.

No one is predicting a great economy any distance into the future. Too many national and international uncertainties But as real estate agent Fran Veller observed, trouble elsewhere has effect of making Vermont look like a safe and sound refuge in a turbulent world.