TRAVEL/TOURISM: Hospitality is still under the weather

It's usually the losers who say, "Wait'll next year." But state tourism officials consider last year a winner, and they're eager for another one.

One of those people is Lynn Minges, executive director of the N.C. Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development since December. She points to

a 17% increase in 2000 visitor inquiries over the year before, when tourists spent $11.4 billion in the state. Welcome-center visits, another barometer, had increased 8.6% through October. "We've noticed pretty good growth throughout the state," she says. Even gas prices that were about a quarter a gallon higher than the year before didn't stop travelers. "We had some reports of some slowness over the summer along the coast, but that picked up in the fall."

Minges wasn't alone in her optimism. Jim Hobbs, president of the 378member North Carolina Hotel & Motel Association, says western North Carolina fared well, despite scattered wildfires during peak fallleaf season. And he, like Minges, cites a late-season surge in beach visits. Carolyn McCormick, executive director of the Outer Banks Visitors Bureau, says tourism was up more than 16% through November, with rentals up 20% in July and 34% 6 in August from the same months a year earlier.

The reason for the upsurge: The flood of visitors came a year after a flood of water - 1999's devastating Hurricane Floyd. The storm submerged much of the Coastal Plain in September, drowning what was shaping up to be a strong season, but the publicity was as damaging to tourism as the water. "We did have a traumatic event, nationally televised," Hobbs says, adding that images of the flooding had potential tourists canceling reservations, not making them, even in unaffected areas. Tourism was still strong in 1999. Revenues were up 5.6% from 1998, but most of the growth occurred in the first twothirds of the year.

Minges and Hobbs agree that 2000 suffered some hangover not only from Floyd and Hurricane Dennis two weeks earlier but from a snowstorm that hit the Triangle in late January 2000. All forced school closings and lost days that had to be made up. "Summer season didn't start until a little bit later this year, which did have an impact," Minges says. Weather closings also meant students were going to school on weekends.

That put the kibosh on beach trips, and it forced families to cancel mountain ski weekends. However, unusually cold weather in November and December was giving tourism officials a warm glow. "We're just totally dependent on the weather," Minges says. "If there's no snow or we don't get cold enough temperatures, you can't ski. [Ski resorts] are really at Mother Nature's mercy, but, goodness, it looks like this year we ought to be having a great season."

The Biltmore Estate, North Carolina's traditional bellwether for western tourism, was having an uneven year, too. "It mirrors the stock market," says Chris Cavanaugh, marketing director, noting attendance that fluctuated by month. Late in the year, the estate's two-month Christmas season was solid except for three consecutive weekends dampened by rain and wind.

While last year was hurricanefree, tourism officials hope the real rebound will be this year. Hobbs' points to 1996, when Hurricane Fran hit. Lodging revenues were clobbered that year, recovered the next and then soared 11% in 1998 as memories of the storm faded. "We see that as what will happen in 2001," he says. McCormick says inquiries to the Outer Banks tourism bureau are up 20%.

Minges doesn't pin all her hopes for this year on beach lovers. She expects a boost from the women's U.S. Open golf championship May 30 to June 2 in Southern Pines, although less than the $160 million statewide generated by the men's U.S. Open three years ago in Pinehurst. Golf Digest ranks Pinehurst and Southern Pines third and the North Carolina mountains 44th among the nation's top golfing areas, and Minges says the sport produces about $1 billion annually in tourism money, even without national events.

She also cites other reasons to be hopeful. The state is aggressively marketing on the Internet and promoting heritage tourism - travel to historical and cultural sites. Industry researchers say heritage tourists average $615 per visit, compared with $425 for all tourists.

The big unknown for this year, however, might be neither flood nor snow. "Certainly, there's a lot of evidence that consumer confidence is beginning to wane," says Biltmore's Cavanaugh, who fears an economic slowdown could dampen weekend trips and longer vacations.