When "Titanic" opens Christmas Day in Japan, Hollywood's most expensive movie could be heading into the kind of icy waters that doomed the fabled White Star liner.
Japan, like much of Asia, has been hit with a financial crisis, provoking fears that the lucrative overseas movie markets are
"'Titanic' just got screwed," said Andre Morgan, the producer of "Cannonball Run" and former managing director of Golden Harvest Films in Hong Kong. "It was always going to he tough for them to recoup their money, but now they can all keep their jobs and blame it on the devaluations and the exchange rate."
While not everyone agrees that the Asian economic trouble will sink "Titanic," many industry observers believe that Hollywood will be hurt by the crisis there.
With production costs soaring (Titanic reportedly cost more than $200 million), U.S. box office revenues often are no longer enough to break even, much less turn a profit. Hollywood now looks to overseas markets for its profits and recoupment - and the turmoil in Asia has everyone nervous.
"The Asian markets have taken a massive hit," said Ivan Cheah, Warner Bros.' senior vice president for theatrical distribution in Asia. "I expect further bad news to come."
"Every day someone is going down the tube," said Nadia Bronson, president of international marketing at Universal Studios Inc. "We are all affected."
The production and marketing cost of "Titanic" is being split by Paramount Pictures and Twentieth Century Fox Film Corp. Fox has the overseas markets, including the shaky Asian regions, while Paramount has the United States and Canada.
Fox declined to discuss developments in Asia, but Rob Friedman, vice chairman of Paramount's Picture Group, remained bullish.
"Jim Cameron (the film's director) has an enormous track record in Japan," he said. "Japan will be a successful engagement. The same with the rest of Asia because of the event status of the movie."
However, Friedman said lower-budgeted films could be affected by the downturn.
"People will have to make a decision on how to spend their extra money, if they have spendable money," he said.
"Titanic" aside, the bad news in Asia could become a double whammy for Hollywood. Asian currencies, especially in Korea and Thailand, have suffered dramatic devaluations in the past few weeks. This means movie companies will lose a percentage of income based solely on the drop in local currency - even if the box office doesn't slip.
In Korea, the won has lost more than 40 percent of its value this year. In Thailand, the bhat dropped about 50 percent of its value.
Meanwhile, Japan, which represents 30 percent to 50 percent of overseas intake for some companies, has just announced a $77 billion economic restructuring.
"Business has suffered some in Japan," Friedman said.
Motion Picture Association of America President Jack Valenti, who just returned from a trip across Asia, said the real problem is the "ascending strength of the dollar and the collapse of national currencies, which reduce the dollars you export."
He said that, with the exception of Korea, he has seen "no diminution" in box office returns as yet.
Michael Connors, MPAA's senior vice president for Asia, said he remains cautious. "We are watchful," he said. "We haven't drawn any conclusions because certain stock markets have dropped 30 to 50 percent and the currency is going down at the same time. It's too soon."
Connors added that he has seen no dropoff in plans to develop multiplex theaters, which Hollywood has been counting on for the expansion of its films in Asia, especially Thailand. "Video sales remain good," he added.
But Connors said it will take three or four months to fully assess the damage the turmoil has had on "consumer patterns."
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc., which has been hoping to revive its film revenues, has its fingers crossed about "Tomorrow Never Dies," the new James Bond thriller that will be opening in Asia in late January and early February.
"We are concerned how it is going to play," said Larry Gleason, president of MGM Worldwide Distribution. "We are concerned about the loss of value in the exchange rate. We would have to do more than 15 percent better business than we did with 'Goldeneye' two years ago to bring us hack to status quo."
Rolf Mittweg, president of New Line Films International, which is a division of Time Warner Inc., isn't counting on giant revenues from Asia.
"We will see less money from this area," he said. "How much less is still to be determined."