The UAE Has A New Approach To Energy Policy; Focus On The First Post-Zayed Govt.

The founder and President of the United Arab Emirates, Shaikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nayhan, died on Nov. 2 at the age of 86. In the night on Nov. 1, he had signed his last decree: setting a new government for the union with a super-ministry incorporating the sectors of petroleum, mineral resources,

Hamili, aged 51, is an oil industry veteran who has been a member of Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council and was the country's governor in OPEC from 1994 to 2002. Having once served as deputy minister of petroleum and mineral resources, Hamili has been in charge of marketing and refining at the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) since 1998. So he is not new to the federal government. He is also board chairman or member of several companies and graduated with an advanced management degree from Harvard Business School.

This was the first cabinet reshuffle in seven years. Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed, who on Nov. 3 was elected a president of the UAE after having become the ruler of Abu Dhabi, which Shaikh Mohammed Bin Zayed having become the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, has since indicated that there would be another cabinet reshuffle to reflect the change. But APS sources said this week the change will be minor and the cabinet will continue to be headed by Shaikh Maktoum Bin Rashed Al-Maktoum, the UAE vice president as well as prime minister. Shaikh Maktoum is the ruler of Dubai, with his brothers Hamdan being deputy ruler and Mohammed being the crown prince and "CEO of Dubai Inc".

Abu Dhabi will continue to co-operate with OPEC efforts to stabilise world crude oil markets and meet rising demand. Abu Dhabi is producing almost 2.5 million b/d of crude oil. Total UAE production of crude oil, petroleum products and condensates is averaging about 2.7 million b/d. Abu Dhabi is to boost its oil production capacity by 1 million b/d to 3.5 million b/d by 2006.

The Nov. 1 decreed cabinet reshuffle saw Shaikha Lubna Al-Qassemi, a US-educated businesswoman in her forties, take over as economy and planning minister, the first woman to hold a ministerial post in the federation of seven emirates. A business administration graduate from California State University, Shaikha Lubna was named head of a new portfolio combining the formerly separate economy and planning ministries as part of the changes decreed by President Shaikh Zayed.

Other key changes in the federal government, include the creation of a "ministry for presidency affairs". The portfolio went to Shaikh Mansur Bin Zayed Al-Nahayan, one of the late president's sons who had hitherto served as his chief of staff and already had ministerial rank. He now becomes a full cabinet member.

Another bright son of the late Shaikh Zayed, Shaikh Saif Bin Zayed, was elevated from interior ministry undersecretary to interior minister. A more senior son, Shaikh Hamdan Bin Zayed, remains deputy prime minister and minister of state for foreign affairs, effectively in charge of foreign policy despite the presence of a foreign minister, Rashed Abdullah Al-Nuaimi, who was unchanged.

The cabinet reshuffle also made the UAE the first member of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) to put a minister in charge of GCC affairs at a time when the six-member bloc is trying to move towards economic integration. Shaikh Fahem Bin Sultan Al-Qassemi, who was economy minister before the reshuffle and a one-time secretary general of the GCC (grouping Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia alongside the UAE) will now handle GCC affairs as well as those of the country's ruling Supreme Council.

The defence portfolio remains with Shaikh Mohammed Bin Rashed Al-Maktoum, the driving force behind Dubai's multi-billion-dollar bid to become the region's business and leisure hub. Shaikh Mohammed, with the rank of general, is close to Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed. Since Shaikh Zayed's death, Shaikh Mohammed has been acting as a special adviser to Shaikh Khalifa.

Shaikh Nahayan bin Mubarak Al-Nahayan remains in charge of education at the head of a ministry now combining a full range of education-related fields previously overseen by two ministries. The information ministry remains under the stewardship of Shaikh Abdullah Bin Zayed. Ali Bin Abdullah Al-Kaabi was given the labour and social affairs brief in the 21-member cabinet, succeeding Hmaid Al-Tayer, who was dropped.

Shaikha Lubna has proved herself as a successful businesswoman, and now takes on one of the most important ministerial roles. She has built a business that is active across the Middle East, and her participation in events such as the World Economic Forum meetings is proof that educated Arab women can hold their own with the world's top professionals. An emirate from Sharjah, Shaikha Lubna was promoted by Shaikh Mohammed in Dubai.

Women are gradually being accepted into the cabinets of the GCC governments. Bahrain, Oman and Qatar each have two female ministers managing portfolios such as health, education and local crafts. Shaikha Lubna, however, is the first to be appointed to lead a ministry that carries the international prestige of economy and planning.

Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, 58, has inherited a city-state and a country that have been transformed since his childhood from poverty-stricken backwaters to the forefront of regional and global importance as the UAE's prime oil exporter, sole owner of 10% of the world's proven oil reserves and responsible for 95% of the UAE oil output. The emirate of Abu Dhabi is by far the wealthiest single state in the Middle East in per capita terms. Its investments overseas now exceed $200 billion.

The authority of Abu Dhabi's ruling Al-Nahyan family has been strengthened by the cabinet reshuffle. Abu Dhabi's hold over the federation has been consolidated. Its ruling family now holds not only seven of the 20 federal cabinet posts, but by virtue of its wealth, it continues to control defence and financial policies, even though these federal cabinet portfolios are held by shaikhs from Dubai. Despite its wealth, the federation is small, militarily weak and vulnerable, in a region packed with predators.

The new ruler's job may have been made easier by last December's official appointment of his half-brother, Shaikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, as deputy crown prince. Shaikh Mohammed, who is also chief of staff of the country's armed forces, now has become crown prince - an arrangement which, as one senior member of the family put it, "ensures that the succession issue remains stable for at least the next 30 years". For stability to be sustained and in-fighting to be avoided, however, much depends on the personal relationship between the new ruler and Shaikh Mohammed, a strong favourite of the US.

While much is made in Western diplomatic circles of the relatively recent warm relations between Shaikhs Khalifa and Mohammed, it is a line, say insiders, that is trotted out by Western governments in their attempts not to "rock the UAE boat". Shaikh Khalifa will also be under pressure to redress the imbalance between the rich south, primarily Abu Dhabi emirate, and the economically backward north.