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Business Exchange

Multichannel Industry Indicators

By:George Winslow
Publication: Multichannel News
Date: Monday, April 10 2006

As the cable industry heads to the National Show in Atlanta this week, it's a pivotal moment. Cable telephony subscriber counts are rising. Traditional telephone companies entering the multichannel video business. Broadband subscriptions are growing. And satellite-TV growth is showing signs of slowing.

With that in mind, Multichannel News contributor George Winslow has assembled a series of statistical tables that act as a snapshot of the health of various segments of the multichannel business and where experts think they might be headed.

Broadband Homes and Revenue

North American Cable Modem Subscribers (Thousands)	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	18,176	23,160	27,350	31,225	35,315	39,070	43,020
North American Cable Modem Revenues ($ in Millions)	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	9,161	12,228	13,784	14,988	16,527	17,347	18,068

Multichannel Revenues Subscriber revenues will continue to grow at a healthy pace as basic and pay revenue climb from $61 billion in 2006 to $69 billion in 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates.

Basic subscription revenue ($ in Millions)	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	30,470	33,487	36,365	39,002	41,016	42,821	44,367	46,004	47,614	49,321
Total revenue ($ in Millions)	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	40,643	44,786	48,484	52,105	55,367	58,561	61,039	63,628	66,226	69,039

Telephony, IPTV and Mobile Entertainment Cable telephony revenues should hit nearly $5 billion by 2009, In-Stat estimates, but operators will face increased video competition as telcos sign up about 7 million subscribers for IPTV services by 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates.

U.S. Broadband Telephony Households (Millions)	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Broadband telephony households	1.2	3.0	5.3	8.3	11.9	16.0	20.4
Percentage of U.S. Households	1%	3%	5%	8%	11%	14%	18%
Source: JupiterResearch
US Cable Telephony Revenues ($ in Millions)	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	1,501	2,009	2,676	3,237	3,796	4,302	4,903
Source: In-Stat
Telco TV Subscribers (Competitive wireline homes, millions)	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	1.1	1.4	1.4	1.7	2.5	3.5	5.0	7.0
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2005-2009.
U.S. Cell Phone Video Revenue and Mobile Subscriber Adoption ($ in Millions)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Mobile video revenue	62	88	124	181	309	501
Penetration among mobile subscribers	1%	1%	1%	2%	3%	5%

Multichannel TV Subscribers The number of multichannel TV homes will grow by only 1.6% in 2006 but satellite TV gets a healthy 7.7% bounce and cable will once again see a modest loss of about 0.7%, MAGNA Global Research estimates.

Total TV Households (Thousands)	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
	102,200	105,500	106,700	108,400	109,600	110,200	112,300	113,700	115,000	116,400
Percent of total homes	93.2%	95.0%	95.7%	95.7%	95.3%	94.4%	94.8%	94.5%	94.2%	93.9%
Multichannel TV Homes (Thousands)	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
	89,980	92,881	95,003	97,562	99,340	100,906	102,161	103,067	103,601	103,992•
Percent of TV homes	88.0%	88.0%	89.0%	90.0%	90.6%	91.6%	91.0%	90.6%	90.1%	89.3%
Cable Homes (Thousands)	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
	72,958	73,525	73,366	72,717	71,912	71,378	70,933	70,539	70,173	69,814
Percent of TV homes:	71.4%	69.7%	68.8%	67.1%	65.6%	64.8%	63.2%	62.0%	61.0%	60.0%
Satellite Homes (Thousands)	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
	17,022	19,356	21,637	24,845	27,428	29,528	31,228	32,528	33,428	34,178
Percent of TV homes	16.7%	18.3%	20.3%	22.9%	25.0%	26.8%	27.8%	28.6%	29.1%	29.4%
Digital DBS and Cable Homes (Thousands)	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
	33,747	41,025	46,462	52,485	58,168	63,622	68,653	80,952	92,763	103,992
Percent of Digital Penetration	37.5%	44.2%	48.9%	53.8%	58.6%	63.1%	67.2%	78.5%	89.5%	100.0%

Multichannel Programmers Cable networks will boost programming expenditures to $15.3 billion in 2006, according to Kagan Research. Cable Programming Expenditures ($ in Billions)

2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006*	2007*	2008*	2009*
8.1	9.3	10.8	12.1	13.7	15.3	17.0	18.8	20.8

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Multichannel Industry Indicators

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