News Analysis: Imports Look for Big Gains in Minivan Market

As new and redesigned minivans hit the market this year and next in a segment that since 1995 has stood in the shadows cast by SUVs, imports stand to gain ground against the Big Three.

Though U.S. automakers are still pumping out minivans, Honda, Toyota and Nissan are cutting into their market share.

Ford, General Motors and Chrysler Group will account for just 67% of the market this year, predicts Global Insight, Lexington, Mass., down from a combined 89% minivan share in 1998. "All the share Honda has taken has been directly from the Big Three," said Rebecca Lindland, auto analyst at Global Insight.

Minivan sales have held steady at 1.1 million annually, though their overall share fell to 6.7% in 2002 versus 8.4% in 1995, per J.D. Power. Marketers also expect little crossover from SUVs, should their popularity begin to wane whether because of high gas prices or bad pr.

"The people who are defecting from SUVs of any size are scattering in the wind, but the single largest defection is to luxury and near luxury sedans, followed by minivans," said Art Spinella of CNW, Bandon, Ore.

Part of the reason for the lack of growth is due to the poor image of minivans, often derided as "breadboxes on wheels."

Some automakers are looking to dispel those notions. As part of the unveiling of its 2004 Quest in Detroit in January, for instance, Nissan ran a cheeky video that played on 12-step confessions and featured men and women having to swallow their pride to own a minivan.

Nissan's newcomer will be positioned for style and driveability, rather than just roominess, said Fred Suckow, marketing manager for Quest. "You will see us do things nobody has done in this segment," he vowed.

Nissan is aiming to quadruple Quest's 2002 sales of 17,480 with the latest model. Quest, which bowed in 2001, has received scant media support, but the 2004 version, due out this summer, will receive a "major launch," said Suckow. TBWA\Chiat\Day, Los Angeles, handles.

Meanwhile, Toyota will try a more familiar tack with its Sienna. Sources said the company will use a "kids rule" approach, possibly including creative from a kid's point of view, to marketing the vehicle. Toyota spent $21 million promoting the Sienna in 2002, per CMR. Saatchi & Saatchi, Torrance, Calif., handles.

That spend was in line with Honda's $26 million outlay for its Odyssey minivan, handled by Rubin Postaer & Associates, Los Angeles. In 1998, Honda eked out a 1.7% share of the minivan market. Now Odyssey claims 13.5% and Lindland predicts Honda will garner 17% of minivan sales this year, just shy of GM's 17.6%.

The U.S. automaker with the most to lose from foreign rivals appears to be Chrysler Group, which sold 271,287 Chrysler Town & Country and Dodge Caravan models last year, comprising 37% of total minivan sales.

But Chrysler spokesman Brian Zvibleman said he is not concerned about the extra traffic.

"It will re-energize the minivan market, and bring more cross-shoppers into our dealership," he said. "We welcome the competition."