Air Force Lt. Col. questions future of aerospace industry.

The U.S. aerospace industrial base is "on the brink" of extinction, argues Air Force Lt. Col. David King. "Short-term budget decisions imperil the long-term viability" of the industry, he states in the Spring 2006 edition of "Air & Space Power Journal." The gradual decline of the industry

is masked by the success of the "shock and awe" air-power displays of recent wars. But this capability is the result of an industrial base "that no longer exists due to consolidation of the defense industry and a reduction in its workforce," King argues. One piece of evidence that documents the deteriorating industry was the recent federal government decision to award the design of the next U.S. presidential helicopter to Agusta Westland, a British-Italian joint venture.

"When a condition such as industrial capability deteriorates slowly, perceptions gradually shift so that several years or decades may pass before people perceive significant changes in the baseline," King writes. "Because the American aircraft industry has declined by many measures, available capability may not meet projected needs."

The country's military aircraft industry has gone through a radical consolidation. The remaining companies are partnering with each other on the few active projects and are requiring the use of common suppliers, further eroding the innovative capacity of the industry.

"Policymakers may expect continued innovation without realizing that recent success stems from a more robust industrial base than currently exists," King explains. Experienced production, design and engineering workers are not training the next generation of workers, due to cutbacks in orders. "Sustaining a viable industrial base requires enough work to maintain and renew" the aerospace workforce, King writes. The average age of a machinist working on the F-22 is 54. "A recent decline in the number of firms and experienced workers suggests that the health of the American aircraft industry is deteriorating."

The gap in time from when the F-22 Raptor stops production and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter ramps up to full production in 2013 "jeopardizes the crucial 'art' of designing and manufacturing stealthy materials and parts ...," King writes. "Termination of F-22 production before F-35 production matures will translate into higher costs for the latter program--at the same time the Air Force begins to rely more heavily on the F-35."

Maintaining the industrial base will require annual production of 120 aircraft per year, but neither the production capability nor the budget exist to do so. "Continuing the production of F-22s until F-35s are fielded and their production processes mature would solve this problem, and help maintain needed industrial capability," King writes. Producing 381 F-22 aircraft would replace more than 500 legacy aircraft, but plans call for the procurement of only 180.

"Some individuals argue that information-age warfare ... will reduce the importance of industrial capability," King writes in the conclusion of his eight-page article. "After all, the feudal system ended when changing technology and the rise of nationalism replaced knights with mass armies. Although American society is moving its focus from manufacturing to information, this shift belies the fact that people didn't stop eating when the economy switched from agriculture to manufacturing. In fact, the ability to concentrate on manufacturing required modern, more efficient agriculture. Today, increased productivity allows a single farmer to feed over 100 people. Similarly, leveraging information-age capabilities calls for a modern and efficient industrial base. We must ask ourselves whether we are making investments--analogous to those we made in agriculture--to ensure that needed aircraft design and manufacturing capability exists. When it comes to the American aircraft industry, we have reason to doubt whether current investment levels will maintain that capability."