Asia powers ahead, NSB report shows.

The bible of science and technology statistics--U.S. National Science Board's biennial Science & Engineering Indicators--has just been published (1). Among many other features, the 426 pages and 265 tables and charts in the two-volume 2004 edition provide ample evidence of the growing competitive

Scientists in these countries, the report notes, are:

* Producing a growing share of the S&T articles published in leading journals, while the U.S. share continues to decline.

* Involved in more regional scientific collaborations (centered on China).

* Gaining more U.S. patents (up from 2 to 12 percent of U.S. patents granted between 1988 and 2001).

These "emerging" economies themselves are:

* Expanding their world market share of high-tech production.

* Gaining on the U.S. and all other major industrial nations in high-tech exports, climbing to nearly 30 percent of the global share.

* Producing more engineering and natural science degrees.

* Have already in place, or are instituting, policies and incentives to retain their highly trained graduates, attract expatriates "or otherwise benefit from their nationals working abroad, chiefly in the United States."

In short, "The rest of the world is catching up," the National Science Foundation's long-time analyst John E. Jankowski says. "Science excellence is no longer the domain of just the U.S."

Call for More Talent

"The United States is in a long-distance race to retain its essential global advantage in S&E human resources and sustain our world leadership in science and technology," said NSB Chair Warren M. Washington. "For many years we have benefited from minimal competition in the global S&E labor market, but attractive and competitive alternatives are now expanding around the world. We must develop more fully our native talent."

In a companion piece to Indicators 2004 (2), the NSB finds in the available statistics an "emerging and critical problem" for the U.S. science and engineering labor force.

The problem lies in current trends that, if left unchecked, show the number of U.S. citizens qualified for science and engineering jobs will be level "at best," the NSB notes. At the same time, the nation may be unable to rely on foreign citizens to fill the gap, either because of limits to entry or because of intense foreign competition for those skills.

Indicators 2004 shows, for example, that the U.S. now ranks 17th among nations surveyed in the proportion of its 18-24-year-olds earning natural science and engineering degrees. In 1975, it ranked third.

Record levels of foreign-born scientists and engineers have helped make possible the rising U.S. S&E employment in the past several decades. Indicators 2004 highlights U.S. Census data from 2000 showing about 17 percent of bachelor's degree holders, 29 percent of master's degree holders, and 38 percent of doctorate holders employed in S&E occupations are foreign-born.

The latest data in Indicators 2004 reveal, for example, that the percentage of foreign-born mathematicians and computer scientists in the U.S workforce, has nearly doubled since 1990. In addition, foreign-born students constituted more than 50 percent of U.S. engineering and computer science graduate students in 2001.

On the other hand, the number of high-skill-related visas issued to students, exchange visitors and others has declined significantly since 2001. These numbers reflect both a drop in applications and higher U.S. State Department refusal rates.

Lion's Share of Global R&D

On the economic front, the United States and the G-7 nations continue to account for the lion's share of global R&D expenditures, according to Indicators 2004. The U.S. global high-tech market share held steady in the 1990s, and foreign-owned firms' R&D expenditures in the United States continue to exceed the amount U.S. firms spend overseas.

However, a number of countries are positioned to become more prominent in technology development because of their large, ongoing investments in S&E education and R&D. In the 1990s, China and South Korea increased their high-technology market shares to the point that their combined share has surpassed that of Japan. And U.S. firms spend more R&D dollars in Asia than Asian firms spend in the United States--the only global region where the United States shows such a deficit.

References

(1.) National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Vol. 1, NSB 04-1; Vol. 2, NSB 04-1A. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation; http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/ seind04/

(2.) National Science Board. "An Emerging and Critical Problem of the Science and Engineering Labor Force," NSB 04-07, Jan. 2004; http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/nsb0407/strat.htm