What causes insurance cycles?(WORKERS' COMP)

I do not know in general, but for workers' compensation I have some ideas. A conventional wisdom that investment yields drive the cycle seems doubtful. There appear to be several factors, among them delay and deception.

The top of a cycle occurs when insurance is priced at its high point--as in about 1993 and about 2003. The bottoms would be in 1999 and--we're not there yet.

We'll watch how in four years an insurer goes from a hard market through the cycle midpoint and into the end of the soft market. Our end point roughly approximates 2001. I'm effectively