Key Challenges and Issues Facing The UK CommercialGeneral Insurance 2007.

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UK Commercial General Insurance 2007

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This report analyzes the market's performance across key commercial lines, providing insight into competitor strategies and the major issues affecting the market. Data relating to the evolving dynamics of commercial insurance distribution are also analyzed. Finally, GWP forecasts are presented for the main sectors of the commercial insurance market.

Data on GWP growth and underwriting profitability in the key sectors of the commercial insurance marketAnalysis of competitive dynamics, with profiles of the main competitors' market share changes, performance ratios and strategiesDiscussion of the key issues shaping the market at the moment, based on research interviews with industry executivesGWP forecasts for the total commercial market and its main sectors, based on Datamonitor's forecast model and in-house industry expertise

The UK commercial general insurance market recorded a 3.2% decline in GWP in 2006. This reflected decreases in premium income from the general liability, commercial property, commercial motor and commercial pecuniary loss sectors.

The dynamics of commercial insurance distribution have shifted between 2003 and 2006 and certain categories of broker have seen their share of distribution diminish. In particular, national brokers saw their distribution share decline from 54% in 2003 to 48% by 2006.

Royal & SunAlliance retained its position as the UK's largest commercial insurance provider in 2006, although it saw a decline in GWP. Its total commercial premium income fell by 4.3 percentage points to PS2,250m.

Benchmark your company's performance against your competitors using current and historical data.Develop your future business plans from an informed viewpoint with Datamonitor's GWP forecasts for the market and each commercial lineUnderstand the key issues shaping the commercial market and each of its main sectors

Overview 1

Catalyst 1

Summary 1

Executive summary 2

Total general insurance GWP declined in 2006 2

The general liability, commercial property, commercial motor and pecuniary loss markets recorded a fall in GWP in 2006 2

The total general liability market contracted in 2006, but it moved into an underwriting profit 2

Competitive conditions in the liability market resulted in lower premium income 2

The total general insurance market moved further into profit in 2006 2

Brokers continued to dominate the distribution of commercial insurance 3

National brokers have lost distribution market share to the direct channel, chain brokers and telebrokers 3

The largest three UK commercial insurers all recorded a decline in commercial insurance GWP in 2006 3

Royal & SunAlliance retained its position as the largest UK commercial insurance provider in 2006 3

Norwich Union recorded a fall of 3.3% in commercial insurance GWP 3

Zurich saw premium income fall across all of its commercial books in 2006 3

Commercial general insurance GWP is forecast to grow by a CAGR of 5.3% between 2007 and 2012 4

Table of Contents 5

Table of figures 6

Table of tables 7

Market context 8

Introduction 8

Total general insurance GWP declined in 2006 8

The motor insurance market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline 8

Property insurance GWP rose very slightly in 2006 8

General liability recorded a significant fall in GWP 8

Accident and health was the only business line to record strong growth 8

Pecuniary loss GWP fell by 3.2% 9

The general liability, commercial property, commercial motor and pecuniary loss markets recorded a fall in GWP in 2006 10

The total general insurance market moved further into profit in 2006 12

The accident and health market performed well in 2006, with growth in GWP and strong growth in underwriting profit 14

Individual and group accident and health GWP grew in 2006 14

During 2006, individual health GWP growth slowed and premium income fell in the individual accident sector 16

The group health sector recorded GWP growth of 3.2% in 2006 16

The accident and health market witnessed underwriting profits grow substantially in 2006 18

Lloyd's and other non-company market players increased their share of the accident and health insurance market in 2006 20

The total general liability market contracted in 2006, but it moved into an underwriting profit 22

Competitive conditions in the liability market resulted in lower premium income 22

The liability underwriting result improved for a fifth consecutive year in 2006, and the market finally achieved profitability 23

The company market increased its exposure to the liability insurance market in 2006 compared to Lloyd's 25

The motor insurance market softened in 2006 however underwriting profits in the commercial sector improved 27

Both private and commercial motor markets contributed to the decline in motor premium income in 2006 27

Commercial motor insurance premium income declined in 2006, due to the soft market 29

Underwriting losses grew in the motor market in 2006 as private motor losses exceeded profits in the commercial motor market 30

The commercial motor underwriting result increased in 2006 32

Lloyd's insurers saw their exposure to motor insurance decrease in 2006 34

Total pecuniary loss GWP fell in 2006 with decreases in the personal and commercial sector, however underwriting profits increased 36

The pecuniary loss market declined by an estimated 3.2% in 2006 36

Pecuniary loss continues to be a profitable line of business, with profits increasing to PS691m in 2006 37

Lloyd's and other non-company market players increased their exposure to pecuniary loss insurance in 2006 39

Property GWP fell in 2006, led by the soft commercial property sector where underwriting profits dropped 41

Household insurance GWP increased in 2006, while commercial property GWP fell 41

Property underwriting profits continued to decline during 2006 but the market remains profitable 43

The commercial property underwriting result decreased in 2006 for a second consecutive year 44

ABI members underwrote the vast majority of property insurance in 2006 46

Customer focus 49

Introduction 49

Brokers continued to dominate the distribution of commercial insurance 49

National brokers have lost distribution market share to the direct channel, chain brokers and telebrokers 49

The direct channel increased its share of commercial insurance GWP by 1% in 2006 49

Affinity groups remain a small channel for the distribution of commercial insurance 49

Banks and building societies continue to play a small role in the distribution of commercial insurance 50

Competitive dynamics 53

Introduction 53

The market saw a number of mergers and acquisitions, many involving brokers 53

AXA acquired numerous commercial brokers in 2007, reinforcing its position in the SME sector 53

Groupama acquired a majority stake in Lark Group in August 2007 53

Direct Line began to offer business insurance in 2007 53

Equity Insurance Group recorded a large number of small-scale acquisitions 54

Towergate continued to acquire numerous brokers in 2007 54

Other brokers acquiring included Jelf, Oval, Aon and JLT 54

A number of insurers announced job cuts in 2007 in order to make cost savings 55

The largest three UK commercial insurers all recorded a decline in commercial insurance GWP in 2006 55

Royal & SunAlliance retained its position as the largest UK commercial insurance provider in 2006 55

Norwich Union recorded a fall of 3.3% in commercial insurance GWP 56

Zurich saw premium income fall across all of its commercial books in 2006 56

AXA recorded the highest increase in GWP of any top 10 UK commercial insurer in 2006 56

Allianz recorded a significant decline in commercial insurance GWP in 2006 as its commercial property book contracted 56

New Hampshire recorded a 1.7% decline in commercial GWP in 2006 57

BUPA suffered a 6.4% decline in GWP as conditions worsened in the group accident and health market 57

ACE recorded GWP growth of 2.6% 57

NFU Mutual recorded a strong set of results in 2006, increasing commercial motor, liability and property GWP 57

NIG recorded the second highest GWP growth rate among the top 10 UK commercial insurers 58

Softening market conditions meant numerous insurers ranked between 11 and 20 saw GWP decline, although a handful saw GWP growth 58

A number of insurers ranked between 11 and 20 saw GWP decline due to the poor market conditions 58

Groupama, Standard Life, Ecclesiastical and CNA saw commercial GWP increase in 2006 58

Most of the top 10 commercial insurers had a good mix of commercial and personal business in 2006 60

The profitability of the top 10 accident and health insurers deteriorated in 2006 due to increases in loss ratios 62

The top 10 accident and health insurers recorded an average loss ratio of 63.7% in 2006, with the majority seeing an increase in their loss ratio 62

The average loss ratio of 63.7% in 2006 was a 3.5 percentage point increase from 2005 62

Standard Life combined a growing book of business with a smaller loss ratio 62

Combined Insurance Company of America was the only top 10 accident and health insurer to see a loss ratio reduction other than Standard Life 62

Five insurers saw loss ratios increase at the same time as their books grew 62

New Hampshire and BUPA saw loss ratios increase while their books declined in size 63

The top 10 accident and health insurers recorded an average expense ratio of 29.9% in 2006 65

Three of the top 10 accident and health insurers saw their expense ratios decrease while their books grew 65

Combined Insurance Company of America saw its book shrink and its expense ratios reduce 66

Norwich Union, SimplyHealth and AXA saw expense ratios increase as their books expanded 66

Two insurers saw their expense ratios increase alongside a shrinking book of business 66

The top 10 accident and health insurers recorded an average combined ratio of 93.6% in 2006, although two of the biggest players saw their ratios move above 100% 68

The top 10 accident and health insurers achieved an average combined ratio of 93.6% in 2006 68

Groupama and Standard Life both saw their combined ratios decrease in 2006 and their books grow, but Groupama's ratio remained above 100% 69

Combined Insurance Company of America's loss ratio fell by 5.8 percentage points 69

Six of the top 10 insurers saw their combined ratios increase in 2006 69

The performance of the top 10 liability insurers was mixed in 2006 with some seeing better profits while a few players recorded significant losses 71

The average loss ratio of the top 10 UK liability insurers rose by 9.7 percentage points in 2006, but Norwich Union and QBE recorded large reductions 71

The average loss ratio for the top 10 liability insurers rose by 9.7 percentage points in 2006 71

Norwich Union and QBE saw the largest improvements in their loss ratios 71

Zurich saw the largest deterioration in its loss ratio in 2006 72

The average expense ratio of the top 10 liability insurers increased by 3.2 percentage points in 2006, with New Hampshire recording the largest increase 74

The average expense ratio rose by 3.2 percentage points in 2006 to 30.5% 74

New Hampshire recorded the largest increase in its expense ratio but remained one of the most efficient players 74

Royal & SunAlliance, AXA and Allianz were the least efficient UK liability insurers in 2006 75

The average combined ratio of the top 10 UK liability insurers increased in 2006, with Zurich and AXA seeing the two biggest increases 77

The average combined ratio increased in 2006 by 12.9 percentage points to 102.1% 77

Norwich Union and QBE bucked the trend and recorded improvements in their loss ratios 77

Six of the top 10 UK liability insurers recorded combined ratios below 100% in 2006 78

Four insurers recorded combined ratios in excess of 100% in 2006 78

The top 10 motor insurers made the move into profitability in 2006 on the back of reductions in losses and expenses 80

The average loss ratio among the top 10 UK motor insurance providers declined in 2006 with AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recording the biggest improvements 80

In 2006, the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell by 3.3 percentage points to 71.1% 80

AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recorded the strongest loss ratio reductions 81

Four insurers recorded loss ratio deterioration 82

The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006, with Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recording above-average reductions 84

The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006 84

Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recorded above-average expense ratio decline 84

Norwich Union, Zurich and NFU Mutual recorded the highest increases in their expense ratios 85

The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers fell by four percentage points in 2006, with AXA and Churchill seeing significant declines 87

The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers declined by four percentage points in 2006 87

AXA and Churchill recorded significant reductions in combined ratio in 2006 88

NIG, Direct Line and Zurich recorded combined ratio increases 88

The top 10 pecuniary loss insurers saw their profitability increase 90

Pecuniary loss combined ratios increased as expense ratios rose and loss ratios fell 90

The average loss ratio of the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers declined by 0.2 percentage points to 29.4% in 2006 90

Norwich Union and Lloyds TSB achieved strong loss ratio reductions 90

Direct Line and Pinnacle recorded the highest loss ratio increases 91

The average expense ratio of the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers increased to 65.3% in 2006, with Direct Line, Allianz and St Andrew's seeing the highest individual increases 93

The average expense ratio of the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers increased by 1.8 percentage points to 65.3% in 2006 93

GEFI, Norwich Union and UK Insurance recorded double-digit increases in their expense ratios 93

Direct Line, Allianz and St Andrew's achieved strong expense ratio reductions 94

Combined ratios increased among the leading pecuniary loss insurers in 2006 96

The average combined ratio among the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers rose by 1.6 percentage points in 2006 96

Allianz, Direct Line, St Andrew's and Lloyds TSB reduced their pecuniary loss combined ratios 96

GEFI, UK Insurance and Pinnacle all experienced increases in their combined ratios 97

Combined ratios rose for the top 10 property insurers in 2006 due to rising expenses and claims however most players remained in profitable territory 99

The average loss ratio of the top 10 property insurers increased by 0.1 percentage points in 2006, with Direct Line, Zurich and Norwich Union recording the biggest reductions 99

The average loss ratio of the top 10 property insurers increased by 0.1 percentage points 99

Norwich Union, Direct Line and Zurich recorded strong loss ratio reductions 99

St Andrew's, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recorded high loss ratio increases 100

The average expense ratio of the top 10 property insurers increased in 2006, with Norwich Union and AXA recording the largest individual increases 102

The average expense ratio of the top 10 property insurers rose by 1.4 percentage points in 2006 102

Norwich Union, AXA and Lloyds TSB saw their expense ratios increase, but they achieved GWP growth 102

Four of the top 10 property insurers achieved expense ratio reductions 103

The average combined ratio of the top 10 property insurers rose in 2006, with Norwich Union, AXA and NIG seeing the largest increases 105

Among the top 10 UK property insurers, the average combined ratio rose by 1.5 percentage points in 2006 105

Norwich Union, AXA and NIG recorded high combined ratio growth 105

Three insurers were able to defy the property market trend and reduce their combined ratios 106

Future decoded 109

Introduction 109

Commercial general insurance GWP is forecast to grow by a CAGR of 5.3% between 2007 and 2012 109

The liability and group A&H markets are forecast to record strong GWP growth, however growth in the commercial property and pecuniary loss sectors will be lower 109

The liability and group accident and health markets are forecast to achieve strong growth 109

Commercial motor GWP growth is forecast to improve, particularly over 2008-10 109

The property and pecuniary loss markets are forecast to record the lowest GWP growth rates in the commercial general insurance market 110

Rises in premium rates and policy numbers are expected to lead to growth in group A&H 111

The group A&H market is expected to grow as a result of increases in policy numbers and premium rates 111

The group accident and health insurance market is forecast to grow to a value of PS2.8 billion in 2012 112

The UK commercial liability market is forecast to grow from mid-2008 114

Competitive pricing continued to weigh on the liability market in 2007, but conditions are expected to improve 114

The UK liability market is forecast to reach a value of PS8.2 billion in 2012 115

The commercial motor market is forecast to harden in 2008 and reach PS4.1 billion by 2012 117

Premium rate increases are expected to lead to an improvement in the commercial motor market 117

The UK commercial motor insurance market is forecast to reach a value of PS4.1 billion in 2012 118

The commercial property insurance market entered a hardening cycle late in 2007 120

Underlying claims inflation and the threat of severe weather events will lead to price rises in commercial property insurance 120

The commercial property insurance market is forecast to reach a value of PS5.7 billion in 2012 121

UK commercial pecuniary loss GWP is forecast to achieve annual growth of 3.9% between 2007-12f 123

The forecast for pecuniary loss is based on historical trends 123

APPENDIX 126

2005-6 definitions for lines of business 126

Accident & health 126

Medical expenses 126

HealthCare cash plan 126

Travel 126

Personal accident or sickness 126

Motor 126

Total private motor 126

Total commercial motor 127

Private motor comprehensive 127

Private motor non-comprehensive 127

Motorcycle 128

Fleets 128

Commercial vehicles (non-fleet) 128

Property 128

Total commercial property 128

Household and domestic all risks. 129

Consequential loss (i.e. business interruption) 129

Financial/Pecuniary loss business 129

Total personal financial loss business 129

Total commercial financial loss business 129

Legal expenses 130

Fidelity and contract guarantee 130

Liability business 130

Employers liability (including the employers liability part of mixed liability packages but excluding mixed commercial packages) 130

Professional indemnity (including directors' and officers' liability and errors and omissions liability) 130

Public and products liability 130

Mixed commercial package 130

Total personal 131

Total commercial 131

Pre-2005 definitions for lines of business 131

Accident and health 131

Individual accident and health 132

Group accident and health 132

General liability 132

Motor 132

Pecuniary loss 133

Total pecuniary loss figures 133

Property 133

Premium income measures 135

Earned premiums 135

Gross Premium 135

Net Premium 135

Written premiums 135

2005 FSA Return changes 135

Major changes in FSA Return categories and their impact 135

Market size 136

Changes in market size information 136

Market size methodology 136

Lloyd's players and underwriting result figures 136

Competitor data 136

GWP versus GEP reporting 137

Total personal and total commercial business 138

Home-Foreign, overseas and facultative reinsurance business 138

Further reading 138

Ask the analyst 138

Datamonitor consulting 139

Disclaimer 139

List of Tables

Table 1: Total general insurance GWP by line of business, 2002-6 10

Table 2: Commercial general insurance market GWP and year-on-year growth, split by sector 2002-6 12

Table 3: Total general insurance underwriting result, by line of business, 1996-2006 14

Table 4: Accident & health GWP split between individual and group, 2002-6 16

Table 5: Accident and health GWP by sector, 2002-6 18

Table 6: Total accident & health underwriting result, 1996-2006 20

Table 7: Accident and health GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's/Other, 1996-2006 22

Table 8: UK commercial liability market, 2002-06 (PSm) 23

Table 9: Total general liability underwriting result, 1996-2006 25

Table 10: Liability GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's/Other, 1996-2006 27

Table 11: Total motor market GWP by private and commercial segment, 2002-6 28

Table 12: Commercial motor GWP, by line of business, 2002-6 30

Table 13: Total motor underwriting account, 1996-2006 32

Table 14: Commercial motor underwriting result, 1996-2006 34

Table 15: Motor GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's/other, 1996-2006 36

Table 16: Pecuniary loss market GWP by line of business, 2002-6 37

Table 17: Total pecuniary loss underwriting account, 1996-2006 39

Table 18: Pecuniary loss GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's/Other, 1996-2006 41

Table 19: Property insurance GWP split between household and commercial business, 2002-6 42

Table 20: Total property underwriting account, 1996-2006 44

Table 21: Commercial property underwriting result, 1996-2006 46

Table 22: Property GWP split between ABI members and Lloyd's/other, 1996-2006 48

Table 23: Market share of distribution channels in the commercial general insurance market, 2003-6 52

Table 24: GWP of UK commercial insurers ranked 11-20, 2005-6 59

Table 25: Split between commercial and personal business for the top 10 commercial insurers, 2006 61

Table 26: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK accident and health insurers, 2005-06 65

Table 27: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio for the top 10 UK accident and health insurers, 2005-06 68

Table 28: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK accident and health insurers, 2005-06 71

Table 29: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK liability insurers, 2005-06 74

Table 30: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio for the top 10 UK liability insurers, 2005-06 77

Table 31: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK liability insurers, 2005-06 80

Table 32: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005-6 84

Table 33: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005-6 87

Table 34: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005-6 90

Table 35: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK pecuniary loss insurers, 2005-06 93

Table 36: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio for the top 10 UK pecuniary loss insurers, 2005-06 96

Table 37: Premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK pecuniary loss insurers, 2005-06 99

Table 38: Premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK property insurers, 2005-06 102

Table 39: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio among the top 10 property insurers, 2005-06 105

Table 40: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK property insurers, 2005-06 108

Table 41: Forecast commercial general insurance GWP, 2002-12f 111

Table 42: Key variables affecting the group accident and health market GWP forecast, 2002-12f 112

Table 43: Group accident and health GWP forecast, 2002-12f (PSm) 114

Table 44: Key variables affecting commercial liability insurance GWP, 2007e-12f 115

Table 45: UK commercial liability insurance premium income, 2002-12f (PSm) 117

Table 46: Key variables affecting commercial motor insurance GWP, 2002-12f 118

Table 47: UK commercial motor insurance GWP forecast, 2002-12f (PSm) 120

Table 48: Key variables affecting commercial property insurance GWP, 2007e-12f 121

Table 49: UK commercial property insurance premium income, 2002-12f (PSm) 123

Table 50: UK pecuniary loss insurance premium income, 2002-12f (PSm) 125

List of Figures

Figure 1: General insurance GWP declined in 2006 9

Figure 2: The general liability, commercial property and commercial motor markets recorded a fall in GWP in 2006 11

Figure 3: The total general insurance market moved further into profit in 2006 13

Figure 4: Growth in the individual accident and health sector slowed in 2005 and 2006 15

Figure 5: During 2006, individual health GWP growth slowed and premium income fell in the individual accident sector 17

Figure 6: Growth in profitability returned to the accident and health market in 2006 19

Figure 7: Lloyd's and other non-company market players increased their share of the UK accident and health insurance market in 2006 21

Figure 8: Falling premium rates in most liability lines meant lower GWP across the liability market 23

Figure 9: The total general liability underwriting result increased in 2006 24

Figure 10: The company market, Lloyd's and other non-company market players all saw liability insurance GWP decline in 2006 26

Figure 11: Both the private and commercial motor markets declined in 2006 28

Figure 12: The decline in commercial motor income was the result of reductions in both fleet and commercial vehicle insurance 29

Figure 13: The motor insurance market continued to make an underwriting loss in 2006 31

Figure 14: The commercial motor underwriting result increased in 2006 33

Figure 15: Lloyd's insurers saw their exposure to motor insurance decrease in 2006 35

Figure 16: The pecuniary loss market saw its underwriting profit increase in 2006 38

Figure 17: Lloyd's and other non-company market players increased their exposure to pecuniary loss insurance in 2006 40

Figure 18: Household insurance GWP increased in 2006, while commercial property GWP fell 42

Figure 19: Property insurance underwriting profits fell in 2006 to PS517m 43

Figure 20: The commercial property underwriting result decreased in 2006 45

Figure 21: The company market underwrote the vast majority of property insurance in 2006 47

Figure 22: National brokers dominate the distribution of commercial general insurance in the UK in terms of GWP 51

Figure 23: Groupama and Standard Life grew significantly on the back of strong performances in the group accident and health market in 2006 59

Figure 24: Royal & SunAlliance recorded the highest commercial GWP in 2006, although Norwich Union was larger overall 60

Figure 25: Only two of the top 10 UK accident and health insurers achieved better loss ratios in 2006 64

Figure 26: Numerous UK accident and health insurers saw their expense ratios increase in 2006 67

Figure 27: Six of the top 10 UK accident and health insurers recorded higher combined ratios in 2006 70

Figure 28: Norwich Union achieved the biggest reduction in its liability loss ratio in 2006 73

Figure 29: New Hampshire saw the largest increase in its expense ratio in 2006 76

Figure 30: Most of the top 10 UK liability insurers saw their combined ratio deteriorate in 2006 79

Figure 31: While the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell in 2006, NIG and Direct Line saw increases in their ratios 83

Figure 32: Norwich Union saw the biggest increase in private motor expense ratio in 2006 86

Figure 33: NIG saw the biggest increase in combined ratio in 2006 89

Figure 34: A number of UK pecuniary loss insurers recorded significant GWP decline in 2006, although some were also able to decrease their loss ratios as a result 92

Figure 35: Direct Line achieved strong GWP growth and reduced its expense ratio in 2006, although fellow RBS subsidiary UK Insurance did not fare as well 95

Figure 36: Allianz, Direct Line and St Andrew's achieved the strongest pecuniary loss combined ratio reductions in 2006, largely through decreasing their expense ratios 98

Figure 37: Direct Line, Zurich and Norwich Union saw the best decreases in loss ratio in 2006 101

Figure 38: St Andrew's was the only insurer to successfully reduce its expense ratio and at the same time increase its property insurance GWP in 2006 104

Figure 39: Direct Line and Churchill saw the biggest reductions in combined ratio in 2006 107

Figure 40: The liability and group A&H markets are forecast to record strong GWP growth, however growth in the commercial property and pecuniary loss sectors will be lower 110

Figure 41: A&H GWP is forecast to increase by 5.1% per annum between 2007e and 2012f 113

Figure 42: The UK liability market is expected to harden in 2008 116

Figure 43: The commercial motor market is predicted to harden in 2008, resulting in an increase in GWP 119

Figure 44: The commercial property insurance market will experience steady growth from 2007-12 122

Figure 45: UK commercial pecuniary loss GWP is forecast to achieve annual growth of 3.9% between 2007-12f 124

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