Aging population faces cold reality of care numbers

Queried in a summer survey how it would deal with labor shortages plaguing nursing homes, one facility responded it would simply pray," another indicated it would likely dose its doors.

The University of Connecticut's Center on Aging estimated that Connecticut's nursing home population will

The same study, which was led by UConn researcher JulieRobison, predicts a 28 percent growth rate for all long-term care services, including assisted-living facilities that are not licensed as nursing homes, but which provide some basic services.

New U.S. Census Bureau data support UConns projections on Connecticut's nursing home population. It marked the first time in nearly three decades that the government has examined the social and economic profiles of people living in group quarters such as nursing homes, college dormitories, military barracks and prisons.

Nationwide; some 1.8 million people live in nursing homes, or 0.6 percent of the population. Nearly seven in 10 nursing home residents are women. The median age of nursing home residents is 83 years, and residents had an average annual income of $12,000. Among minorities, whereas African-Americans occupy nursing homes in similar proportion to the total population, Hispanic and Asian Americans do not, accounting for nearly 20 percent of the U.S. population, but just 5 percent of the nursing home population.

Some 17 percent of survey respondents to the UConn survey said they provide some kind of nursing assistance to a family member, with nearly half that number saying they do so because they cannot afford paying for the service.

No surprise there - Stamford has the highest nursing home costs of any locale in the nation save Alaska, according to an October study sponsored by the MetLife Mature Market Institute, a Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. affiliate located in Westport.

Rooms in 10 Stamford nursing homes average $136,000 this year, up from $125,500 in 2006, MetLife found. The national average is $78,000 per year.) A room in one of 11 Stamford assisted-living facilities costs $58,000 on average this year, trailing only Washington, D.C., and Manchester, N.H., and $22,000 more than the national average.

Not including informal care provided by family members, in 2004 Connecticut long-term-care patients paid 23 percent of their bills, with Medicare and Medicaid paying 62 percent and private insurance covering 9 percent.

For the first time in 2006, more than half of Connecticut residents covered by Medicaid's long-term-care insurance received home and community-based care.

With the Connecticut Partnership for Long Term Care estimating an average stay of 2.5 years in a nursing home, the costs can quickly mount. During the past two legislative sessions, the Connecticut General Assembly has been working to defray costs while improving services.

A new law allows people to salt away money on a tax-free basis to pay for future home-care expenses. The Connecticut Home Care for Elders program currently provides funding to care for 14,000 seniors in settings ranging from nursing homes to households. Also in 2007, Connecticut expanded a "money follows the person" program that allows individuals to leave nursing facilities and return to their homes, with the state providing payments to whomever takes on their long-term-care needs. After first allocating support for 100 slots, the legislature expanded the program to cover up to 700 elderly people.

That suits most people just fine. UConn found that nearly 80 percent of survey respondents hope to remain home as they receive nursing care, with less than 20 percent expressing a preference for a nursing home.

The next least-attractive option? Living with their adult child.