Cellular's faith faces challenges.

Cellular's Faith Faces Challenges The small army of grey and black handhelds wasn't just for show at the Cellular Telephone Industry Association's winter conference.

The fifth annual convention drew over 100 exhibitors and some 2800 attendees, mostly service providers.

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Robert Maher, CTIA president, expects 40 million North American subscribers by 2000. Consultant Scott Goldman predicts there will be 27.5 million in the U.S. alone.

At the rate the cellular market is growing, buyers must ask themselves not "which vendor is better," said author Patrick Townsend, but "Who's getting better faster?"

Hot conference topics were:

* Consultant Scott Goldman said users soon may see financial incentives for subscriber referrals, envelope stuffers touting custom calling features, vertical marketing through financial institutions, and improved customer service.

* NovAtel Communications' Supplementary Cellular System (SCS) may cut subscriber bills through "minicells" of five-mile radius. The three-channel unit interfaces standard PBX equipment in areas where full cellular coverage is uneconomical. It will be available from General Cellular (San Francisco) by late 1990.

* OKI Telecomm "visorphones" flip down from driver's side visors in select 1990 Chrysler models. Test marketing begins in California in March.

The move is expected to accelerate penetration into the consumer market.

McCaw Communications principal Craig McCaw joked during a luncheon speech that his company and Hughes would soon introduce a "Telepathic Ringing plant." Surgically implanted for under $500, the mythical product will replace "all known forms of communication."

The ability to call anyone anywhere in the world anytime, without worrying about the means of receiving the call, is closer to reality than many realize, he said.

Glowing predictions aside, however, much remains to be done in the area of applications if purveyors of cellular and related technologies are to deliver a personal communications revolution.

Bellcore's Donald A. Cox said he had trouble getting cellular service when he tried to place a call from deep within the Bally's Hotel exhibit area.

"Cellular isn't the whole answer" to the challenge of a seamless national personal communications network, he said during a panel discussion.

Whether PCN (personal communication networks), CT-2 and mobile satellite technologies represent competitive or complementary services, however, remains unclear.

CTIA Vice President Kevin Kelley said mobile satellites eliminate hand-off problems, but their cost and antenna size hamper implementation.

Europe already has four licensed PCN providers, but U.K.-based Phonepoint and its competitors have had trouble converting interest to sales. Bicycle courier services and lawyers are signing on first.