Will it rain on Asia's democratic parade?

A democratic flowering is under way in Asia, according to State Department diplomats briefing opinion writers at the NCEW-sponsored event in Washington.

They spoke of improved relations with key democratic states like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and India and recent gains in Indonesia, Malaysia,

The second concern is continued resistance of states like Vietnam, Laos, Burma, and especially North Korea to democratic ideas. The third is the threat of terrorism--both home-grown and imported. In that regard, all Asia remains vulnerable to a demographic disaster taking shape in the restive Middle East.

"We have to deal with the world as we find it, and as it exists," Secretary of State Colin Powell told the NCEW delegation. Powell and his deputies spoke enthusiastically about two ways they said the Bush administration is nurturing democracy in Asia and elsewhere: the Greater Middle East Initiative and the Millennium Challenge Account. Both programs send extra aid to nations that adopt reforms in politics, economics, and education--like family law practices in Morocco and municipal elections in Saudi Arabia.

"We're working to avoid future Iraqs," Powell said. James A. Kelly, assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was just back from ah ASEAN alliance meeting that dealt with China policy and terrorism, among other issues. Of the Chinese economic juggernaut, he said, "No one has seen anything like it."

Kelly said the key to U.S./China relations is stability. He explained that China has a burgeoning middle class along its coasts, leaving behind one billion people inland. "A crash in China, chaos, a rupture, is in no one's interest," he said. "The refugee flows alone would be a huge upheaval."

Kelly noted that hall a million Taiwanese already work in China, and that the economy now drives politics. "Communist ideology is gone," he said. "It has been replaced by legitimacy based on a generally improving economy."

By contrast, Kelly said, Vietnam clings to an ideology long since discredited in China. But a religious revival also is taking place, and there are signs of development in Ho Chi Minh City. "It could be the country it has the potential to be, with a first-rate work force." Kelly said. "And education is big."

Kelly, who has been engaged in the nuclear standoff with North Korea, said the administration insists on a comprehensive solution. "We're determined to get it right this time," he said. "We're not signing an agreement that's not complete."

ASEAN is due to meet in Burma in 2006--providing an opportunity to press for reforms in that non-democratic state, according to Mitchell Reiss of the State Department's policy planning office. But the major source of Asian instability, in Reiss's view, is the Middle East.

"It has just about the lowest per capita income growth in the world," he said, adding that two hundred eighty million Arabs--forty percent--are fourteen or younger; ten million children are not in school; sixty-five million adults are illiterate. "The future there is a disaster," Reiss concluded. "No jobs, misery, anger, and resentment."

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* An e-mailed newsletter gets information more promptly into the hands of members than is possible with a printed version.

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These savings allow NCEW to produce the newsletter monthly instead of quarterly and thereby keep members better informed.

In addition, the e-letter has the capability of linking members directly to further information and related topics on the new NCEW website.

If you have not seen the newsletters or the special convention announcement, please contact NCEW headquarters at ncew@pa-news.org to confirm your e-mail address. There are a lot of new activities and opportunities being announced in the e-newsletter. NCEW wants to make sure all members are receiving this important communication piece.

Fred Fiske is senior editorial writer at The Post-Standard in Syracuse, N.Y. E-mail ffiske@syracuse.com